中国重要矿产资源的需求预测   总被引：18，自引：22，他引：18  

王高尚  韩梅 《地球学报》2002,23(6):483-490

以往对矿产资源的中长期需求预测,大都基于纯数学模型或情景分析对已有数据的经验外推。由于缺乏对工业化过程矿产资源消费需求基本规律的把握,预测结果几乎无一例外地存在巨大偏差。笔者在深入分析工业化经济增长与矿产资源消费需求的相关关系、基本规律和模式的基础上,探讨了工业化过程中矿产资源消费从怎样的初始值通过什么样的方式到达多高的峰值,进而提取经济增长与矿产资源消费需求的模式参数,预测了中国未来30a能源、钢、铜、铝、锌的消费需求。  相似文献   

烟台市新增亿元GDP用地量的分析探讨     

孙红岩  石晓 《山东地质》2012,(2):60-62

新增亿元GDP用地量是衡量土地节约集约利用的重要指标,在分析烟台市新增亿元GDP用地量现状的基础上,确定烟台市新增亿元GDP用地量,并以此为基础对烟台市未来5年合理新增用地量进行预测,为促进土地节约集约利用提供参考。  相似文献   

基于状态空间模型的中国人均水资源量趋势分析     

张海燕  王新民  徐运辉  王童 《世界地质》2011,30(2):254-258

作为水资源贫乏国家之一,中国水安全问题已引起广泛关注,了解中国人均水资源组成情况及其发展势态非常必要。利用2000 － 2007 中国地表水和地下水数据对人均水资源量进行回归分析和状态空间模型预测,计算出人均水资源量在此段时间内受到地表水和地下水的平均影响及其随着时间的平均变化。模拟地表水和地下水对中国人均水资源量影响的动态,显示中国人均水资源量增长率随时间具有下降趋势,但近年来下降幅度逐渐减小。结果表明中国近年来的水资源管理总体具有成效。  相似文献   

Spatialization of electricity consumption of China using saturation-corrected DMSP-OLS data     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2014

Electricity is one of the most important components in energy consumption, which is directly related to economic growth, CO₂ emission and global warming. This research intends to estimate spatial distribution of electricity consumption in China, the largest developing country, and analyze the temporal and spatial change of electricity consumption during 1994–2009. The spatial modeling is based on the total electricity consumption of each province and DMSP (Defense Meteorological Satellite Program) – Operational Line-scan System (OLS) data, the latter provides the nighttime light information corresponding to electricity consumption, GDP and population. A simple method was developed to correct the saturated pixels with digital number of 63 in non-radiance-corrected DMSP-OLS data, using cities’ GDP data. The spatial electricity consumption maps were produced during 1994–2009, and they were validated by the electricity consumption records of 101 cities. Finally, the spatial–temporal changes of electricity consumption were analyzed. The results of this research can help to understand the regional discrepancy, especially rural and urban areas of China, of electricity consumption and economic development.  相似文献   

化州暴雨气候特征分析及极端事件重现期计算     

陈冰  江满桃  郭潮升  王春霞  李东萍 《气象研究与应用》2014,35(4):19-23

利用化州1959年以来的降水资料,对化州暴雨气候变化特征进行分析,在此基础上,研究极端降水的重现期,以期为化州市洪涝灾害的防范和风险管理提供一定的参考数据。统计分析表明,化州年暴雨日数与年雨量之间相关性较好,连续性暴雨多发生在龙舟水以及台风影响期间;暴雨日数、年暴雨量变化趋势显著;暴雨日数1964年发生了突变;暴雨日数、暴雨量存在11年的主要准周期;计算重现期,化州50a一遇的最大日降水量为395.2mm,100a一遇的最大日降水量为451.2mm。  相似文献   

基于GeoDA的哈大齐工业走廊GDP空间关联性   总被引：14，自引：1，他引：13  

万鲁河  王绍巍  陈晓红 《地理研究》2011,30(6):977-984

利用地理空间分析方法和空间分析软件,分析了哈大齐工业走廊2008年各县GDP空间分布状况,包括各县之间GDP水平的空间关联性、各县GDP水平与人口的空间关联性.研究发现:该时期内哈大齐工业走廊各县GDP水平在空间关联性上成正相关,相关系数较小,GDP空间分布并非表现出完全随机性,而是表现出空间相似值之间的空间聚集.GD...  相似文献   

我国经济增长的自组织模型研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

鲍爱根  何跃  贺昌政 《成都信息工程学院学报》2004,19(1):107-110

经济系统的复杂性决定了经济变动及影响因素解释的困难性.应用自组织数据挖掘方法,建立一个解释我国GDP增长的自组织模型,同时与用主成分分析方法建立的GDP增长模型进行比较,分析影响我国经济增长的主要因素,并在此基础上提出相应的对策思路.  相似文献   

Valuing seafood: The Peruvian fisheries sector     

《Marine Policy》2014

There are tradeoffs in managing fisheries, and ideally such tradeoffs should be known when setting fisheries policies. An aspect of this, which is rarely considered, is the spin-off effect of different fisheries: the economic and social benefits that fisheries generate through processing through distribution and on to the end consumer. This study evaluated the benefits generated in the Peruvian marine fisheries sector through a comprehensive value chain analysis, based on a newly-developed combined ecosystem-economic modeling approach, which was integrated in the widely-used Ecopath with Ecosim approach and software. The value chain was parameterized by extensive data collection through 35 enterprise types covering the marine fisheries sector in Peru, including the world's biggest single-species fishery for anchoveta. While anchoveta is what is known about Peruvian fisheries, the study finds that anchoveta accounts for only 31% of the sector contribution to GDP and for only 23% of the employment. Thus, while anchoveta indeed is the fundamental fish species in the Peruvian ecosystem, there are other fisheries to be considered for management. The study indicates that the economic multipliers for Peruvian fisheries were 2.9 on average over the industry, and that these varied surprisingly little between fleets and between seafood categories indicating that the multipliers can be used beyond Peru to generalize the spin-off effect of the value chain. Employment multipliers vary much more across types of fisheries, but also around an average of 2.9; here it was clear that longer value chains result in more employment.  相似文献   

新疆天山北坡干旱区GDP时空模拟   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5  

黄莹  包安明  陈曦  刘海隆  杨光华 《地理科学进展》2009,28(4):494-502

针对资源环境研究领域对空间型社会经济数据的需求,本文以新疆天山北坡为试验区,在分析区域经济发展特征的基础上,根据分县控制、分产业建模的思路,建立基于土地利用的1 km栅格GDP空间化模型对统计型经济数据进行空间分布仿真模拟。对第一产业产值采用面积权重的方法进行拟合;对第二产业建立基于道路的反距离加权模型;第三产业则以城镇规模为基础,通过引入城市边缘距离概念建立多中心的距离衰减加幂指数模型。结果表明,天山北坡GDP空间分布模拟在分产业和分县水平上具有较高精度,模拟值与真实值间的相对误差均在1%以内。从研究区GDP的空间分布来看,高值区主要集中在米泉至沙湾一线,以乌鲁木齐市、石河子市以及克拉玛依市为核心向周围地区辐射;城市内部GDP密度由城市中心向外围递减,建成区GDP密度明显高于城郊及农村地区。1995、2000和2007年三期GDP模拟结果的对比较真实地反映了区域经济发展的历程,对准确把握区域经济动态具有一定的实用价值。  相似文献   

Control of atmospheric CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> concentrations by 2050: A calculation on the emission rights of different countries   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

ZhongLi Ding  XiaoNan Duan  QuanSheng Ge  ZhiQiang Zhang 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2009,52(10):1447-1469

This paper is to provide quantitative data on some critical issues in anticipation of the forthcoming international negotiations in Denmark on the control of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Instead of letting only a small number of countries dominate a few controversial dialogues about emissions reductions, a comprehensive global system must be established based on emissions allowances for different countries, to realize the long-term goal of controlling global atmospheric CO2 concentrations. That a system ...  相似文献