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71.
广义混合率模型目前多应用于岩石的流变、杨氏模量等力学性质的研究,较少应用于多相介质岩石的有效电导率研究。本文利用三维有限元方法计算得到大量二相随机介质模型的有效电导率数据,引入广义混合率的有效电导率模型进行数据拟合,发现广义混合率模型参数J与两相介质电导率比值有关,并首次获得参数 J 与两相介质电导率比值之间的关系式,据此可以快速准确的预测(计算)任意二相介质的有效电导率,其结果较已有的随机介质模型和有效介质理论模型公式更为准确,为精细储集层评价奠定坚实基础。 相似文献
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Muhammad Adeel Arshad 《地震科学（英文版）》2016,29(5):259-269
An inversion method was applied to crustal earthquakes dataset to find S-wave attenuation characteristics beneath the Eastern Tohoku region of Japan.Accelerograms from 85 shallow crustal earthquakes up to25 km depth and magnitude range between 3.5 and 5.5were analyzed to estimate the seismic quality factor Q_s. A homogeneous attenuation model Q_s for the wave propagation path was evaluated from spectral amplitudes, at 24 different frequencies between 0.5 and 20 Hz by using generalized inversion technique. To do this, non-parametric attenuation functions were calculated to observe spectral amplitude decay with hypocentral distance. Then, these functions were parameterized to estimate Q_s. It was found that in Eastern Tohoku region, the Q_s frequency dependence can be approximated with the function 33 f~(1.22) within a frequency range between 0.5 and 20 Hz. However,the frequency dependence of Q_s in the frequency range between 0.5 and 6 Hz is best approximated by Q_s(f) = 36f~(0.94) showing relatively weaker frequency dependence as compared to the relation Q_s(f) = 6 f~(2.09) for the frequency range between 6 and 15 Hz. These results could be used to estimate source and site parameters for seismic hazard assessment in the region. 相似文献
74.
Abstract The reassessment of flood risk at York, UK, is pertinent in light of major flooding in November 2000, and heightened concerns of a perceived increase in flooding nationally. Systematic flood level readings from 1877 and a wealth of documentary records dating back as far as 1263 AD give the City of York a long and rich history of flood records. This extended flood record provides an opportunity to reassess estimates of flood frequency over a time scale not normally possible within flood frequency analysis. This paper re-evaluates flood frequency at York, considering the strengths and weaknesses in estimates resulting from four contrasting methods of analysis and their corresponding data: (a) single-site analysis of gauged annual maxima; (b) pooled analysis of multi-site gauged annual maxima; (c) combined analysis of systematic annual maxima augmented with historical peaks, and (d) analysis of only the very largest peaks using a Generalized Pareto Distribution. Use of the historical information was found to yield risk estimates which were lower and considered to be more credible than those achieved using gauged records alone. Citation Macdonald, N. & Black, A. R. (2010) Reassessment of flood frequency using historical information for the River Ouse at York, UK (1200–2000). Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(7), 1152–1162. 相似文献
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In climatology and hydrology, univariate Extreme Value Theory has become a powerful tool to model the distribution of extreme events. The Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) is routinely applied to model excesses in space or time by letting the two GPD parameters depend on appropriate covariates. Two possible pitfalls of this strategy are the modeling and the interpretation of the scale and shape GPD parameters estimates which are often and incorrectly viewed as independent variables. In this note we first recall a statistical technique that makes the GPD estimates less correlated within a Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation approach. In a second step we propose novel reparametrizations for two method-of-moments particularly popular in hydrology: the Probability Weighted Moment (PWM) method and its generalized version (GPWM). Finally these three inference methods (ML, PWM and GPWM) are compared and discussed with respect to the issue of correlations. 相似文献
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采用ARM7的LPC2132微处理器作为主控制芯片,结合电源、存储芯片、直流电机及蜂鸣器电路设计,给出了实用型电子密码锁的软硬件实现方法,系统具有以下功能:输入修改添加,正确开锁,连续错误3次报警,输入超时恢复初始化状态．另外,本系统把触摸屏技术和密码锁技术有效地结合在一起,利用ARM7片上资源丰富、处理速率快,触摸屏效果直观、使用方便等特点来实现整个系统的功能． 相似文献
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O.R. García Cueto N. Santillán Soto M. Quintero Núñez S. Ojeda Benítez N. Velázquez Limón 《Atmósfera》2013,26(4):509-520
Extreme weather events can have severe consequences for the population and the environment. Therefore, in this study a temporal trend of annual temperatures was built with a time series from 1950 to 2010 for Mexicali, Mexico, and estimates of 5- to 100-year return periods are provided by modeling of summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures. A non-parametric Kendall’s tau test and the Sen’s slope estimator were used to compute trends. The generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was applied to the approximation of block maxima and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to values over a predetermined threshold. Due to the non-stationary characteristic of the series of temperature values, the temporal trend was included as a covariable in the location parameter and substantial improvements were observed, particularly with the extreme minimum temperature, compared to that obtained with the GEV with no covariable and with the GPD. A positive and significant statistically trend in both summer maximum temperature and winter minimum temperature was found. By the end of 21st century the extreme maximum temperature could be 2 to 3 °C higher than current, and the winter could be less severe, as the probabilistic model suggests increases of 7 to 9 °C in the extreme minimum temperature with respect to the base period. The foreseeable consequences on Mexicali city are discussed. 相似文献