Using numerical modelling to evaluate tsunami hazard near the Kuril Island     

L. B. Chubarov  Yu. I. Shokin  K. V. Simonov 《Natural Hazards》1992,5(3):293-318

A sequence of computer experiments is used to study questions concerning the tsunami problem as a quantitative estimate of tsunami danger, detailed geographical tsunami classification, determination of the parameters of critical tsunami waves, and the conditions of their development. We call a wave critical, if its impact on the coast is most hazardous.Using the Middle Kuril Island as an example, we present the results of a computer experiment which includes determining the wavefields on the shelf and estimating the effects connected with the deep-water Bussol and Diana Straits.Numerical simulation of tsunami waves of different sources permits the assessment of the extent of tsunami danger in different areas of the coastal zone of Simushir Island, depending on the location of the focus zone and their geometry.The major singularities of the wavefield arise in the zones of the deep-water straits. The distribution of the amplification factors is determined by both the global parameters of the wavefields and the local properties of individual harbours. The results obtained for a particular harbour in the northern part of Simushir Island, formed the basis for the quantitative estimate of tsunami danger for this area.  相似文献   

Aftershocks series monitoring of the September 18, 2004 M = 4.6 earthquake at the western Pyrenees: A case of reservoir-triggered seismicity?     

M. Ruiz  O. Gasp  J. Gallart  J. Díaz  J.A. Pulgar  J. García-Sansegundo  C. Lpez-Fernndez  J.M. Gonzlez-Cortina 《Tectonophysics》2006,424(3-4):223

On September 18, 2004, a 4.6 mbLg earthquake was widely felt in the region around Pamplona, at the western Pyrenees. Preliminary locations reported an epicenter less than 20 km ESE of Pamplona and close to the Itoiz reservoir, which started impounding in January 2004. The area apparently lacks of significant seismic activity in recent times. After the main shock, which was preceded by series of foreshocks reaching magnitudes of 3.3 mbLg, a dense temporal network of 13 seismic stations was deployed there to monitor the aftershocks series and to constrain the hypocentral pattern. Aftershock determinations obtained with a double-difference algorithm define a narrow epicentral zone of less than 10 km², ESE–WNW oriented. The events are mainly concentrated between 3 and 9 km depth. Focal solutions were computed for the main event and 12 aftershocks including the highest secondary one of 3.8 mbLg. They show mainly normal faulting with some strike-slip component and one of the nodal planes oriented NW–SE and dipping to the NE. Cross-correlation techniques applied to detect and associate events with similar waveforms, provided up to 33 families relating the 67% of the 326 relocated aftershocks. Families show event clusters grouped by periods and migrating from NW to SE. Interestingly, the narrow epicentral zone inferred here is located less than 4 km away from the 111-m high Itoiz dam. These hypocentral results, and the correlation observed between fluctuations of the reservoir water level and the seismic activity, favour the explanation of this foreshock–aftershock series as a rapid response case of reservoir-triggered seismicity, burst by the first impoundment of the Itoiz reservoir. The region is folded and affected by shallow dipping thrusts, and the Itoiz reservoir is located on the hangingwall of a low angle southward verging thrust, which might be a case sensible to water level fluctuations. However, continued seismic monitoring in the coming years is mandatory in this area to infer more reliable seismotectonic and hazard assessments.  相似文献   

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model     

lvaro Gonzlez  Miguel Vzquez-Prada  Javier B. Gmez  Amalio F. Pacheco 《Tectonophysics》2006,424(3-4):319

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.  相似文献   

Water temperature behaviour in the River Loire since 1976 and 1881     

Florentina Moatar  Joël Gailhard 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2006,338(5):319-328

Analysis of monthly mean river temperatures, recorded on an hourly basis in the middle reaches of the Loire since 1976, allows reconstruction by multiple linear regression of the annual, spring and summer water temperatures from equivalent information on air temperatures and river discharge. Since 1881, the average annual and summer temperatures of the Loire have risen by approximately 0.8?°C, this increase accelerating since the late 1980s due to the rise in air temperature and also to lower discharge rates. In addition, the thermal regime in the Orleans to Blois reach is considerably affected by the inflow of groundwater from the Calcaires de Beauce aquifer, as shown by the summer energy balance. To cite this article: F. Moatar, J. Gailhard, C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).  相似文献   

Evidence for a seismic activity mainly constituted of hybrid events at Cayambe volcano,Ecuador. Interpretation in a iced-domes volcano context     

Bertrand Guillier  Jean-Luc Chatelain 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2006,338(8):499-506

The high activity level of Hybrid Events (HE) detected beneath the Cayambe volcano since 1989 has been more thoroughly investigated with data from a temporary array. The unusual HE spectral content allows separating a high-frequency signal riding on a low-frequency one, with a probable single source. HEs are interpreted as high frequency VT events, produced by the interaction between magmatic heat and an underground water system fed by thaw water from the summital glacier, which trigger simultaneous low-frequency fluid resonance in the highly fractured adjacent medium. Pure VTs are interpreted as ‘aborted’ HEs occurring probably in the oldest and coldest part of the volcano complex. To cite this article: B. Guillier, J.-L. Chatelain, C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).  相似文献   

Rodent paleofaunas as indicators of climatic change in Europe during the last 125,000 years     

Manuel Hernández Fernández 《Quaternary Research》2006,65(2):308-323

This paper presents a quantitative reconstruction of the European late Pleistocene paleoclimate based on 72 rodent assemblages of five sequences from France, Germany and Bulgaria, covering the last interglacial-glacial cycle. They show a pattern of severe changes in temperature, with reduced precipitation during the coldest periods. A tentative correlation between the isotopic and palynological records and the paleotemperature changes is shown. These changes are consistent with variations in atmospheric circulation patterns in response to an expanding-retracting Fennoscandian ice-sheet. They can be attributed to the enhancement-weakening of the Scandinavian-Polar anticyclone and its associated dry winds, the south-north shifting of the North Atlantic Polar Front, and the varying supply of moist air from the Atlantic. Qualitative paleoenvironmental analysis shows broadleaved-deciduous forests in France and Bulgaria during most of the studied period. Taiga and tundra appeared in eastern France during the lower Würm. The German sequence indicates the presence of coniferous forests. These results are broadly consistent with other paleobiological records (mammalian, avian and insect faunas, isotopic record in dental tissue, palynology). The main discrepancies with the paleoclimate inferred from the palynological record are found during the coldest periods and are probably due to the interaction between vegetation, climate, and atmospheric CO₂ levels.  相似文献   

Great earthquakes of variable magnitude at the Cascadia subduction zone   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Alan R. Nelson  Harvey M. Kelsey 《Quaternary Research》2006,65(3):354-365

Comparison of histories of great earthquakes and accompanying tsunamis at eight coastal sites suggests plate-boundary ruptures of varying length, implying great earthquakes of variable magnitude at the Cascadia subduction zone. Inference of rupture length relies on degree of overlap on radiocarbon age ranges for earthquakes and tsunamis, and relative amounts of coseismic subsidence and heights of tsunamis. Written records of a tsunami in Japan provide the most conclusive evidence for rupture of much of the plate boundary during the earthquake of 26 January 1700. Cascadia stratigraphic evidence dating from about 1600 cal yr B.P., similar to that for the 1700 earthquake, implies a similarly long rupture with substantial subsidence and a high tsunami. Correlations are consistent with other long ruptures about 1350 cal yr B.P., 2500 cal yr B.P., 3400 cal yr B.P., 3800 cal yr B.P., 4400 cal yr B.P., and 4900 cal yr B.P. A rupture about 700-1100 cal yr B.P. was limited to the northern and central parts of the subduction zone, and a northern rupture about 2900 cal yr B.P. may have been similarly limited. Times of probable short ruptures in southern Cascadia include about 1100 cal yr B.P., 1700 cal yr B.P., 3200 cal yr B.P., 4200 cal yr B.P., 4600 cal yr B.P., and 4700 cal yr B.P. Rupture patterns suggest that the plate boundary in northern Cascadia usually breaks in long ruptures during the greatest earthquakes. Ruptures in southernmost Cascadia vary in length and recurrence intervals more than ruptures in northern Cascadia.  相似文献   

New Approach for Estimation of Static and Seismic Active Earth Pressure   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

Deepankar Choudhury  Shailesh Singh 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2006,24(1):117-127

To estimate static and seismic active earth pressure (P_ad) on a rigid retaining wall, numerical analyses using different step sizes have been carried out in this paper, based on the modified Culmann line method by considering Coulomb’s planar rupture surface. Equivalent pseudo-static seismic forces are considered in the analysis. A new concept of modified unit weight by considering ground surcharge is introduced under static and seismic conditions. By numerical analysis, area of soil (A) has been estimated to obtain the ratio of A/A₀ where A₀ is θh², θ is the angle between retaining structure and ground surface and h is the vertical height of the wall. This ratio remains constant for a particular type of soil and has been used to estimate the maximum active earth pressure using force diagram. Results are provided in tabular form for easy calculation of the coefficient of static and seismic active earth pressure. Present results by considering the new technique, compares well with the results obtained by earlier researchers.  相似文献   

Geothermal evidence for fluid flow through the gas hydrate stability field off Central Chile—transient flow related to large subduction zone earthquakes?     

Ingo Grevemeyer  Norbert Kaul  Juan L. Diaz-Naveas 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,166(1):461-468

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On global forces of nature driving the Earth’s climate. Are humans involved?     

L. F. Khilyuk  G. V. Chilingar 《Environmental Geology》2006,50(6):899-910

The authors identify and describe the following global forces of nature driving the Earth’s climate: (1) solar radiation as a dominant external energy supplier to the Earth, (2) outgassing as a major supplier of gases to the World Ocean and the atmosphere, and, possibly, (3) microbial activities generating and consuming atmospheric gases at the interface of lithosphere and atmosphere. The writers provide quantitative estimates of the scope and extent of their corresponding effects on the Earth’s climate. Quantitative comparison of the scope and extent of the forces of nature and anthropogenic influences on the Earth’s climate is especially important at the time of broad-scale public debates on current global warming. The writers show that the human-induced climatic changes are negligible.  相似文献