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A method is introduced to calculate and to account for the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which gives a measure of the uncertainty of the model given the uncertainties of the input parameters.Instead of a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input.The method is applied to an oil spill that occurred in open sea near Madeira Islands, in the Atlantic Ocean, in December 1989. The simulations allow the understanding of how a change in the wind direction drove the spill towards the Islands.The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling shows a band of trajectories that is in better agreement with the observations than the single trajectory simulated by the oil spill model, based on mean parameters. 相似文献
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Using an idealized ocean general circulation model, we examine the effect of “mixing hotspots” (localized regions of intense
diapycnal mixing) predicted based on internal wave-wave interaction theory (Hibiya et al., 2006) on the meridional overturning circulation of the Pacific Ocean. Although the assumed diapycnal diffusivity in the
mixing hotspots is a little larger than the predicted value, the upwelling in the mixing hotspots is not sufficient to balance
the deep-water production; out of 17 Sv of the downwelled water along the southern boundary, only 9.2 Sv is found to upwell
in the mixing hotspots. The imbalance as much as 7.8 Sv is compensated by entrainment into the surface mixed layer in the
vicinity of the downwelling region. As a result, the northward transport of the deep water crossing the equator is limited
to 5.5 Sv, much less than estimated from previous current meter moorings and hydrographic surveys. One plausible explanation
for this is that the magnitude of the meridional overturning circulation of the Pacific Ocean has been overestimated by these
observations. We raise doubts about the validity of the previous ocean general circulation models where diapycnal diffusivity
is assigned ad hoc to attain the current magnitude suggested from current meter moorings and hydrographic surveys. 相似文献
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给出了提取潮汐调和常数的一种新方法--正交方法,并应用1992~1997年的TOPEX/POSEIDON卫星高度计遥感资料,提取中国海M2分潮调和常数.同时,利用最小二乘法来提取中国海M2分潮调和常数,两种方法结果比较渤海、黄海、东海海域M2分潮振幅、迟角的均方差分别是3.3 cm,3.6°;南中国海海域M2分潮振幅、迟角均方差分别是1.1 cm,1.7°,结果表明正交方法是一种可信的具有实用性的方法. 相似文献
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A comprehensive numerical study on the three-dimensional structure of a turbulent jet in crossflow is performed. The jet-to-crossflow velocity ratio (R) varies in the range of 2 - 16; both vertical jets and inclined jets without excess streamwise momentum are considered. The numerical results of the Standard two-equation k-ε model show that the turbulent structure can be broadly categorised according to the jet-to-crossflow velocity ratio. For strong to moderate jet discharges, i.e. R> 4, the jet is characterized by a longitudinal transition through a bent-over phase during which the jet becomes almost parallel with the main freestream, to a sectional vortex-pair flow with double concentration maxima; the computed flow details and scalar mixing characteristics can be described by self-similar relations beyond a dimensionless distance of around 20-60. The similarity coefficients are only weakly dependent on R. The cross-section scalar field is kidney-shaped and bifurcated, vvith distinct double concentr 相似文献
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Hydrodynamic modeling of flushing time in a small estuary of North Bay, Florida, USA 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Freshwater fraction method is popular for cost-effective estimations of estuarine flushing time in response to freshwater inputs. However, due to the spatial variations of salinity, it is usually expensive to directly estimate the long-term freshwater fraction in the estuary from field observations. This paper presents the application of the 3D hydrodynamic model to estimate the distributions of salinity and thus the freshwater fractions for flushing time estimation. For a case study in a small estuary of the North Bay in Florida, USA, the hydrodynamic model was calibrated and verified using available field observations. Freshwater fractions in the estuary were determined by integrating freshwater fractions in model grids for the calculation of flushing time. The flushing time in the North Bay is calculated by the volume of freshwater fraction divided by the freshwater inflow, which is about 2.2 days under averaged flow conditions. Based on model simulations for a time series of freshwater inputs over a 2-year period, a power regression equation has been derived from model simulations to correlate estuarine flushing time to freshwater inputs. For freshwater input varying from 12 m3/s to 50 m3/s, flushing time in this small estuary of North Bay changes from 3.7 days to 1.8 days. In supporting estuarine management, the model can be used to examine the effects of upstream freshwater withdraw on estuarine salinity and flushing time. 相似文献
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