测震学多项指标综合预测概率分析     

顾瑾平  钱家栋  王琤琤 《地震》2001,21(2):46-52

通过对测震学各单项指标的预测效能调研，为进一步提取前兆信息，选择了7项测震学指标：频次、地震蠕变、6值、缺震、η值、GL值和调制比，进行综合概率分析。7项指标对关注地区的全时空扫描并考虑了空间单元异常与中强震地点对应的模糊关系，得到指标在各空间单元异常后发生中强震的条件概率。根据历史上每个单项指标的预报效能求计算综合概率时的指标权重，按贝叶斯定律得到相应不同指标在不同时间窗和不同空间单元时中强震发生的加权综合概率。计算结果（1970年以来）表明，对华北地区和川滇地区这一综合概率方法预测效能的R值评估超过0.5。  相似文献   

石河子市多层砖混结构房屋震害概率矩阵的建立     

唐丽华  宋立军  薛健  苗军 《内陆地震》2001,15(4):347-354

以概率理论为基础，采用震害指数法对石河子市重要建筑物中的多层砖混结构房屋进行抗力计算，通过抽样计算建立了石河子市砖混结构房屋按建筑年代分类的震害概率矩阵，又进一步综合这次普查得到的相关统计数据建立了修正的石河子市砖混结构房屋震害概率矩阵，从而为群体房屋的震害预测提供依据。  相似文献   

中国国家自然地图集Internet版的设计和研制     

池天河  齐清文  廖克  王雷 《地理科学进展》2001,20(Z1):46-51

本文系统阐述了国家自然地图集Ｉｎｔｅｒｎｅｔ版的设计和研制过程中的若干问题,包括系统的概念设计、系统开发中的ＷｅｂＧＩＳ技术和策略,系统的主要功能和特色,以及系统维护和更新方案等。本系统从概念设计来看分为服务器端软件模块、浏览器端软件模块、国家自然地图集数据库支持等几个部分。系统开发中采取的ＷｅｂＧＩＳ技术和策略有:兼顾服务器端和客户端的综合型ＷｅｂＧＩＳ策略,基于Ｊａｖａ Ａｐｐｌｅｔ的 ＷｅｂＧＩＳ浏览器开发技术,基于Ｍａｐ Ｏｂｊｅｃｔ(ＭＯ)的ＷｅｂＧＩＳ服务器开发技术等３个方面。在系统的主要功能特色方面,本文从以下５个方面进行了论述:科学有序的内容结构、清晰精练并带导航的界面、富有特色的信息查询功能、多重表达的地图可视化效果、一定的空间信息分析和制图功能。在系统维护和更新方案上,本文从网络技术、数据更新、功能开发３个方面介绍了计划,并对今后的发展趋势进行了展望。  相似文献   

Application of GIS Processing Techniques for Producing Mineral Prospectivity Maps—A Case Study: Mesothermal Au in the Swayze Greenstone Belt,Ontario, Canada   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Harris  J. R.  Wilkinson  L.  Heather  K.  Fumerton  S.  Bernier  M. A.  Ayer  J.  Dahn  R. 《Natural Resources Research》2001,10(2):91-124

A Geographic Information System (GIS) is used to prepare and process digital geoscience data in a variety of ways for producing gold prospectivity maps of the Swayze greenstone belt, Ontario, Canada. Data used to produce these maps include geologic, geochemical, geophysical, and remotely sensed (Landsat). A number of modeling methods are used and are grouped into data-driven (weights of evidence, logistic regression) and knowledge-driven (index and Boolean overlay) methods. The weights of evidence (WofE) technique compares the spatial association of known gold prospects with various indicators (evidence maps) of gold mineralization, to derive a set of weights used to produce the final gold prospectivity map. Logistic regression derives statistical information from evidence maps over each known gold prospect and the coefficients derived from regression analysis are used to weight each evidence map. The gold prospectivity map produced from the index overlay process uses a weighting scheme that is derived from input by the geologist, whereas the Boolean method uses equally weighted binary evidence maps.The resultant gold prospectivity maps are somewhat different in this study as the data comprising the evidence maps were processed purposely differently for each modeling method. Several areas of high gold potential, some of which are coincident with known gold prospects, are evident on the gold prospectivity maps produced using all modeling methods. The majority of these occur in mafic rocks within high strain zones, which is typical of many Archean greenstone belts.  相似文献   

A new inverse method and application to ocean data     

魏恩泊  田纪伟  顾国庆 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2001,44(6):490-497

A new method is proposed to inverse normalization data of hidden variables in a dynamical system by embedding a time series in multidimensional spaces and applying a normalization analysis to the conditional probability density of points in the reconstructed phase spaces. The method is robust in the application to Lorenz system and 4-dimensional R?ssler system by testing quantitatively and qualitatively the correlation coefficient between inverse data and original data in time domain and in frequency domain, respectively. By applying the method to analyzing the South China Sea data, the normalization data of wind speed is extracted from the sea surface temperature time series.  相似文献   

可靠性数学在斜坡稳定性分析中的应用   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

刘焕喜  刘涌江 《西北地质》2001,34(2):37-42

本文将可靠性数学的相关理论引入斜坡稳定分析中，结合斜坡在变形破坏中的各影响因素均具有一定随机性的实际情况，提出了基于概率方法的斜坡稳定性可靠性计算公式，具有一定的现实意义。  相似文献   

Thematic Map Analysis Using Multiple Regression     

James C. Brower  Daniel F. Merriam 《Mathematical Geology》2001,33(3):353-368

Thematic maps can be analyzed by multiple regression for (1) forward prediction where a younger geological structural map is written as a least-squares function of older maps for information on historical perspectives or (2) by backward prediction where an older map is regressed stepwise on a series of younger ones to aid in prospecting. The technique was evaluated by a series of structure maps on different geological horizons from the U.S. Midcontinent (Kansas) where the forward prediction proved more effective than backward. In forward prediction, the first map entered into a multiple regression is invariably the immediately underlying one as expected. On the other hand, the first map in a backward prediction is not necessarily related to stratigraphy which limits the utility of the technique for prospecting.  相似文献   

A Reliability Based Expert System for Assessment and Mitigation of Landslides Hazard Under Seismic Loading     

Al-Homoud  Azm S.  Tahtamoni  Wisam W. 《Natural Hazards》2001,24(1):13-51

Different models were developed for evaluating the probabilistic three-dimensional (3-D) stability analysis of earth slopes and embankments under earthquake loading using both the safety factor and the displacement criteria of slope failure.The probabilistic models evaluate the probability of failure under seismic loading considering the different sources of uncertainties involved in the problem. The models also take into consideration the spatial variabilities and correlations of soil properties. The developed models are incorporated in a computer program PTDDSSA.These analysis/design procedures are incorporated within a code named SARETL developed in this study for stability analysis and remediation of earthquake triggered landslides. In addition to the dynamic inertia forces, the system takes into consideration local site effects.The code is capable of assessing the landslide hazard affecting major transportation routes in the event of earthquakes and preparing earthquake induced landslide hazard maps (i.e., maps showing expected displacements and probability of slope/embankments failure) for different earthquake magnitudes and environmental conditions. It can also beused for proposing a mitigation strategy against landslides.  相似文献   

耗能－隔震柔性底层钢管混凝土结构的振动台实验和损伤分析     

刘兴业  王海超  邓文樵 《地震工程与工程振动》1996,(4)

本文采用人工神经元网络理论，对城市公路网络中的单元路段和桥梁的震害预测进行了探讨。在前人研究的基础上，提出了解决这一非确定性问题的一个有效的方法，对于深入研究生命线工程系统震害的规律具有普遍的意义，从而使我们有可能避免地震造成的破坏和最大限度地减小损失，为抗震减灾提供决策依据。  相似文献   

评估地震人员伤亡的软件系统   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文

程家喻  杨哲 《地震地质》1996,18(4):462-470

设计了地震人员伤亡评估系统软件包，并利用该系统对北京地区假定地震发生后的人员伤亡进行了预测。为设计该系统，建立了北京地区的人口数据库、唐山和邢台地震人员伤亡数据库，对一天中人在不同时间段逗留在房屋内部的概率进行了讨论，从而建立了地震人员伤亡评估的数学模型。该系统作为地震灾害评估系统的子系统，主要用于地震人员伤亡的快速评估  相似文献