Bias and uncertainty in regression-calibrated models of groundwater flow in heterogeneous media     

Richard L. Cooley  Steen Christensen 《Advances in water resources》2006

Groundwater models need to account for detailed but generally unknown spatial variability (heterogeneity) of the hydrogeologic model inputs. To address this problem we replace the large, m-dimensional stochastic vector β that reflects both small and large scales of heterogeneity in the inputs by a lumped or smoothed m-dimensional approximation γθ_∗, where γ is an interpolation matrix and θ_∗ is a stochastic vector of parameters. Vector θ_∗ has small enough dimension to allow its estimation with the available data. The consequence of the replacement is that model function f(γθ_∗) written in terms of the approximate inputs is in error with respect to the same model function written in terms of β, f(β), which is assumed to be nearly exact. The difference f(β) − f(γθ_∗), termed model error, is spatially correlated, generates prediction biases, and causes standard confidence and prediction intervals to be too small. Model error is accounted for in the weighted nonlinear regression methodology developed to estimate θ_∗ and assess model uncertainties by incorporating the second-moment matrix of the model errors into the weight matrix. Techniques developed by statisticians to analyze classical nonlinear regression methods are extended to analyze the revised method. The analysis develops analytical expressions for bias terms reflecting the interaction of model nonlinearity and model error, for correction factors needed to adjust the sizes of confidence and prediction intervals for this interaction, and for correction factors needed to adjust the sizes of confidence and prediction intervals for possible use of a diagonal weight matrix in place of the correct one. If terms expressing the degree of intrinsic nonlinearity for f(β) and f(γθ_∗) are small, then most of the biases are small and the correction factors are reduced in magnitude. Biases, correction factors, and confidence and prediction intervals were obtained for a test problem for which model error is large to test robustness of the methodology. Numerical results conform with the theoretical analysis.  相似文献   

海洋粘土沉积物的组成及其增白试验     

田春燕  张培萍  马丽艳  石学法  吕华华  于德利 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2006,36(1):142-147

为了海洋粘土的开发应用,利用FTIR和XRD衍射对其进行了矿物成分分析。结果表明,海洋粘土样品中粘土矿物含量较高,其主要矿物组成为伊/蒙混层和伊利石并含有少量其它矿物,同时证实样品中有磁铁矿和赤铁矿存在。粘土沉积物的化学成分分析显示,粘土中Fe2O3质量分数较高,约为7%。采用酸溶氢气还原法对东太平洋的粘土样品进行了化学增白试验,并探讨了酸种类及其浓度、药剂用量、反应时间、煅烧温度等因素对除铁增白效果的影响,优选出最佳除铁增白方案,使海洋粘土的白度由原来的23.8%提高到73.1%。另外,对增白前后样品的粒度、比表面积和分散性的测试表明,在增白的同时样品的活性也得到了提高。  相似文献   

黄土高原半干旱区非均一下垫面粗糙度分析   总被引：10，自引：6，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

张文煜  张宇  陆晓静  郭振海  王晓妍 《高原气象》2009,28(4):763-768

利用2007年4月17日-2008年4月16日兰州大学半干旱气候与环境观测站边界层气象塔的风速、 风向、 温度、 气压、 湿度等观测资料, 采用经典的廓线法和风速、 风向标准差法, 分别计算了中性大气层结下观测站下垫面粗糙度长度, 并得到了具有黄土高原地理特征的地表粗糙度及其时空变化特征。计算结果表明, 季节变化对粗糙度的影响幅度可达0.159 m, 空间非均一性对粗糙度的影响幅度可达0.155 m。测站附近粗糙度春季为0.017 m, 夏季为0.062 m, 秋季为0.065 m, 冬季为0.018 m。测站西北方向上游粗糙度春季为0.17 m, 夏季为0.22 m, 秋季为0.34 m, 冬季为0.05 m。测站东南方向上游粗糙度春季为0.11 m, 夏季为0.17 m, 秋季为0.19 m, 冬季为0.05 m。该站下垫面粗糙度计算宜选用风速为6±1.5 m·s-1, 风向变化30°范围内的数据。  相似文献   

Application of Dynamic Subgrid-scale Models for Large-eddy Simulation of the Daytime Convective Boundary Layer over Heterogeneous Surfaces   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Hsin-Yuan Huang  Bjorn Stevens  Steven A. Margulis 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2008,126(3):327-348

The sensitivity of large-eddy simulation (LES) to the representation of subgrid-scale (SGS) processes is explored for the case of the convective boundary layer (CBL) developing over surfaces with varying degrees of spatial heterogeneity. Three representations of SGS processes are explored: the traditional constant Smagorinsky–Lilly model and two other dynamic models with Lagrangian averaging approaches to calculate the Smagorinsky coefficient (C _S ) and SGS Prandtl number (Pr). With initial data based roughly on the observed meteorology, simulations of daytime CBL growth are performed over surfaces with characteristics (i.e. fluxes and roughness) ranging from homogeneous, to striped heterogeneity, to a realistic representation of heterogeneity as derived from a recent field study. In both idealized tests and the realistic case, SGS sensitivities are mostly manifest near the surface and entrainment zone. However, unlike simulations over complex domains or under neutral or stable conditions, these differences for the CBL simulation, where large eddies dominate, are not significant enough to distinguish the performance of the different SGS models, irrespective of surface heterogeneity.  相似文献   

The fast Ice Nucleus chamber FINCH   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

U. Bundke  B. Nillius  R. Jaenicke  T. Wetter  H. Klein  H. Bingemer 《Atmospheric Research》2008,90(2-4):180-ICNAA07

We present first results of our new developed Ice Nucleus (IN) counter FINCH from the sixth Cloud and Aerosol Characterization Experiment (CLACE 6) campaign at Jungfraujoch station, 3571 m asl. Measurements were made at the total and the ICE CVI inlet. Laboratory measurements of ice onset temperatures by FINCH are compared to those of the static diffusion chamber FRIDGE (FRankfurt Ice Deposition Freezing Experiment). Within the errors of both new instruments the results compare well to published data.  相似文献   

边界层湍流输送的若干问题和大气线性热力学   总被引：16，自引：9，他引：7  

胡隐樵  左洪超 《高原气象》2004,23(2):132-138

总结了大气线性热力学基本理论,讨论了大气边界层的能量和物质输送交叉耦合效应,还讨论了大气系统动力过程和热力过程的交叉耦合效应。分析指出：由于动力过程和热力过程的交叉耦合效应,导致大气边界层能量和物质输送过程除了湍流输送外,还应包括大气辐散和辐合运动对能量和物质的输送。非均匀下垫面大气边界层和对流边界层辐散和辐合运动对能量和物质输送是重要的。在这个基础上,讨论了非均匀下垫面和对流边界层地表能量的平衡问题,非均匀下垫面和对流边界层陆面过程边界层参数化等问题。这些研究不仅丰富了大气边界层物理理论,而且为克服当前大气边界层物理应用中所遇到的困难提供了理论依据。  相似文献   

卫星遥感结合地面观测估算非均匀地表区域能量通量   总被引：49，自引：1，他引：48  

马耀明  王介民  MassimoMenenti  WimBastiaanssen 《气象学报》1999,57(2):180-189

卫星遥感在研究非均匀陆面上地－气间能量和水循环过程时有其独到的作用。文中介绍了一种利用ＬＡＮＤＳＡＴＴＭ资料进行非均匀陆面上区域能量平衡研究的参数化方案。并以夏季和深秋两个景的ＴＭ资料为个例,结合“黑河实验”（ＨＥＩＦＥ）期间的地面观测资料分析了实验区非均匀陆面上地表特征参数及能量平衡各分量的区域分布及季节差异,同时将所得的结果与地面观测的“真值”作了比较,所得的这些结果是基本可信的。这种方法仍然处于发展的初始阶段,对此也进行了讨论。  相似文献   

地震异构云管理平台的技术架构设计     

郭凯  姜立新  刘晓雨  班世敏 《中国地震》2020,36(1):153-161

基于Open Stack的开源标准体系,结合中国地震台网中心和中国地震局第二监测中心的云基础设施现状,设计两级云管理架构,以异构云管理平台作为综合管理平台,纳管区域云管理平台,以统一门户的方式对地震行业云计算资源进行统一管理;通过容器化部署异构云管理平台,初步实现对地震行业云计算资源的统一监控和运行管理。  相似文献   

一种模拟非均匀介质中弹性波传播新的k-space方法          下载免费PDF全文

黄继伟  刘洪 《地球物理学报》2020,63(8):3091-3104

传统的伪谱(PS)方法,采用傅里叶变换(FT)计算空间导数具有很高的精度,每个波长仅需要两个采样点,而时间导数采用有限差分(FD)近似因而精度较低.当采用大时间步长时,由于时空精度不平衡,PS法存在不稳定性问题.原始的k-space方法可以有效地克服这些问题但是却无法适用于非均匀介质.为了提高原始k-space方法模拟非均匀介质波动方程的精度,我们提出了一种新的k-space算子族.它是用非均匀介质的变速度代替原k-space算子中的常数补偿速度构造得到,引入低秩近似可以高效求解.我们将构造的新的k-space算子应用于耦合的二阶位移波动方程,而不是交错网格一阶速度应力波动方程,使模拟弹性波的计算存储量减少.我们从数学上证明了基于二阶波动方程的k-space方法与基于一阶波动方程的k-space方法是等价的.数值模拟实验表明,与传统的PS、交错网格PS和原始的k-space方法相比,我们的新方法可以在时间和空间步长较大的均匀和非均匀介质中,为弹性波的传播提供更精确的数值解.在保持稳定性和精度的同时,采用较大的时空采样间隔,可以大大降低数值模拟的计算成本.  相似文献   

Community change and evidence for variable warm-water temperature adaptation of corals in Northern Male Atoll,Maldives     

《Marine pollution bulletin》2014,81(1-2):107-113

  相似文献