The effect of random recharge on uniform steady free-surface flow in heterogeneous porous formations     

O.?AmirEmail author 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2004,18(1):2-8

The effect of parametric uncertainty in recharge rate and spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity upon free-surface flow is investigated in a stochastic framework. We examine the three-dimensional free-surface gravitational flow problem for sloped mean uniform flow in a randomly heterogeneous porous medium under the influence of random recharge. We develop analytic solutions for the variance of free-surface position, head, and specific discharge on the free surface. Additionally, we obtain semi-analytic solutions for the statistical moments of head and specific discharge beneath the free-surface. Statistical moments are derived using a first-order approximation and then compared with their parallel in an unbounded medium. The effect of recharge mean and variability on the statistical moments is analyzed. Results can be applied to more complex flows, slowly varying in the mean.  相似文献   

Stochastic analysis of spatial variability in unconfined groundwater flow     

G.-F.?LinEmail author  C.-M.?Chen 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2004,18(2):100-108

In this paper, spatial variability in steady one-dimensional unconfined groundwater flow in heterogeneous formations is investigated. An approach to deriving the variance of the hydraulic head is developed using the nonlinear filter theory. The nonlinear governing equation describing the one-dimensional unconfined groundwater flow is decomposed into three linear partial differential equations using the perturbation method. The linear and quadratic frequency response functions are obtained from the first- and second-order perturbation equations using the spectral method. Furthermore, under the assumption of the exponential covariance function of log hydraulic conductivity, the analytical solutions of both the spectrum and the variance of the hydraulic head produced from the linear system are derived. The results show that the variance derived herein is less than that of Gelhar (1977). The reason is that the log transmissivity is linearized in Gelhars work. In addition, the analytical solutions of both the spectrum and the variance of the hydraulic head produced from the quadratic system are derived as well. It is found that the correlation scale and the trend in mean of log hydraulic conductivity are important to the dimensionless variance ratio.  相似文献   

Possible crossing of the termination shock in the solar wind by the Voyager 1 spacecraft     

V. B. Baranov  E. A. Pushkar' 《Astronomy Letters》2004,30(3):179-186

The solution of the classical problem of two-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) interaction between two shocks (the angle between the interacting shocks and the slope of the magnetic field are arbitrary) obtained by Pushkar' (1995) is applied to the problem of interaction between interplanetary shocks and the solar wind termination shock (TS). The self-consistent kinetic-gasdynamic model of solar wind interaction with the supersonic flow of a three-component (electrons, protons, and hydrogen atoms) interstellar medium developed for the axisymmetric, steady-state case by Baranov and Malama (1993) is used as the stationary background against which the physical phenomenon under consideration takes place. The main physical process in this model is the resonant charge exchange between protons and hydrogen atoms. This paper is a natural continuation of our previous papers (Baranov et al. 1996a, 1996b). However, whereas attention in these papers was focused on the TS interaction with an interplanetary forward shock moving away from the Sun, here we consider the TS interaction with an interplanetary reverse shock (RS) moving toward the Sun with a velocity lower than the solar-wind velocity. We show that the TS-RS interaction can give rise to a new TS' that moves toward the Sun, i.e., toward Voyager 1 and Voyager 2. This phenomenon may be responsible for the unexpected suggestion made by some of the scientists that Voyager 1 already crossed TS in the past year. This conclusion was drawn from the interpretation of the intensity, energy spectra, and angular distributions of ions in the energy range from 10 keV to 40 MeV measured from this spacecraft. Our results show that Voyager 1 could cross TS' rather than TS.  相似文献   

Bias and uncertainty in regression-calibrated models of groundwater flow in heterogeneous media     

Richard L. Cooley  Steen Christensen 《Advances in water resources》2006

Groundwater models need to account for detailed but generally unknown spatial variability (heterogeneity) of the hydrogeologic model inputs. To address this problem we replace the large, m-dimensional stochastic vector β that reflects both small and large scales of heterogeneity in the inputs by a lumped or smoothed m-dimensional approximation γθ_∗, where γ is an interpolation matrix and θ_∗ is a stochastic vector of parameters. Vector θ_∗ has small enough dimension to allow its estimation with the available data. The consequence of the replacement is that model function f(γθ_∗) written in terms of the approximate inputs is in error with respect to the same model function written in terms of β, f(β), which is assumed to be nearly exact. The difference f(β) − f(γθ_∗), termed model error, is spatially correlated, generates prediction biases, and causes standard confidence and prediction intervals to be too small. Model error is accounted for in the weighted nonlinear regression methodology developed to estimate θ_∗ and assess model uncertainties by incorporating the second-moment matrix of the model errors into the weight matrix. Techniques developed by statisticians to analyze classical nonlinear regression methods are extended to analyze the revised method. The analysis develops analytical expressions for bias terms reflecting the interaction of model nonlinearity and model error, for correction factors needed to adjust the sizes of confidence and prediction intervals for this interaction, and for correction factors needed to adjust the sizes of confidence and prediction intervals for possible use of a diagonal weight matrix in place of the correct one. If terms expressing the degree of intrinsic nonlinearity for f(β) and f(γθ_∗) are small, then most of the biases are small and the correction factors are reduced in magnitude. Biases, correction factors, and confidence and prediction intervals were obtained for a test problem for which model error is large to test robustness of the methodology. Numerical results conform with the theoretical analysis.  相似文献   

kSZ from patchy reionization: The view from the simulations     

Ilian T. Iliev  Ue-Li Pen  J. Richard Bond  Garrelt Mellema  Paul R. Shapiro   《New Astronomy Reviews》2006,50(11-12):909

We present the first calculation of the kinetic Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (kSZ) effect due to the inhomogeneus reionization of the universe based on detailed large-scale radiative transfer simulations of reionization. The resulting sky power spectra peak at ℓ = 2000–8000 with maximum values of [ℓ(ℓ + 1)C_ℓ/(2π)]_max  4–7 × 10 ⁻¹³. The scale roughly corresponds to the typical ionized bubble sizes observed in our simulations, of 5–20 Mpc. The kSZ anisotropy signal from reionization dominates the primary CMB signal above ℓ = 3000. At large-scales the patchy kSZ signal depends only on the source efficiencies. It is higher when sources are more efficient at producing ionizing photons, since such sources produce larger ionized regions, on average, than less efficient sources. The introduction of sub-grid gas clumping in the radiative transfer simulations produce significantly more power at small-scales, but has little effect at large-scales. The patchy reionization kSZ signal is dominated by the post-reionization signal from fully-ionized gas, but the two contributions are of similar order at scales ℓ  3000 − 10⁴, indicating that the kSZ anisotropies from reionization are an important component of the total kSZ signal at these scales.  相似文献   

The Impact of Mid- and High-Latitude Rossby Wave Activities on the Medium-Range Evolution of the EAP Pattern During the Pre-Rainy Period of South China          下载免费PDF全文

SHI Ning  BUEH Cholaw  JI Liren  WANG Panxing 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2009,23(3):300-314

Based on the NCEP DOE AMIP II daily reanalysis data (1979{2005), the evolution of the East Asia/Pacific(EAP) teleconnection pattern during the pre-rainy period of South China is studied on the medium-range time scale. It is found that positive and negative EAP patterns share a similar generation process. In the middle and upper troposphere, Rossby wave packets emanating from the northeast Atlantic or Europe propagate toward East Asia along the Eurasian continent waveguide and finally give rise to the three anomaly centers of the EAP pattern over East Asia. Among the three anomaly centers, the western Pacific subtropical center appears the latest. Rossby wave packets propagate from the high latitude anomaly center toward the mid-latitude and the subtropical ones. The enhancement and maintenance of the subtropical anomaly center is closely associated with the subtropical jet waveguide and the incoming Rossby wave packets from the upstream. In the lower troposphere, Rossby wave packets emanate from the subtropical Asia toward East Asia. Positive and negative EAP patterns could not be regarded as "mirrors" to each other with simply re- versed phase. For the positive pattern, the positive height anomaly center around the Scandinavia Peninsula keeps its strength and position during the mature period, and the Rossby wave packets thus propagate persistently toward East Asia, facilitating a longer mature time of the positive pattern. As for the formation of the negative EAP pattern, however, the incoming Rossby wave energy from the upstream contributes to both the enhancement and southeastward movement of the negative anomaly belt from the Yenisei River to the Bering Strait and the positive anomaly center around Mongolia. At the peak time, the two anomlous circulations are evolved into the Northeast Asia and the mid-latitude anomaly centers of the negative pattern, respectively. The energy dispersion of Rossby wave packets is relatively fast due to the predominant zonal circulation in the extratropics, causing a shorter mature period of the negative pattern. During the pre-rainy period of South China, the prevalence of the EAP pattern signiˉcantly affects the rainfall over the region south of the Yangtze River. The positive (negative) EAP pattern tends to causepositive (negative) precipitation anomalies in that region. This is di?erent from the earlier research findingsbased on monthly mean data.  相似文献   

2009年3—5月T639、ECMWF及日本模式的中期预报性能检验   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

马杰  王蕾  秦宝国 《气象》2009,35(8):112-117

为更好地应用T639模式中期预报产品,对2009年3-5月T639模式进行天气学检验,并与ECMWF和日本模式进行了对比分析.结果表明:T639和ECMWF模式及日本模式预报性能均较好,相对地,ECMWF对中高纬大气环流的演变及850hPa温度有较强的预报能力.选取2009年4月23-25目的沙尘天气个例,T639模式对于引发此次沙尘天气的地面强风的中期预报指示意义最好,日本模式次之.  相似文献   

黄土高原半干旱区非均一下垫面粗糙度分析   总被引：10，自引：6，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

张文煜  张宇  陆晓静  郭振海  王晓妍 《高原气象》2009,28(4):763-768

利用2007年4月17日-2008年4月16日兰州大学半干旱气候与环境观测站边界层气象塔的风速、 风向、 温度、 气压、 湿度等观测资料, 采用经典的廓线法和风速、 风向标准差法, 分别计算了中性大气层结下观测站下垫面粗糙度长度, 并得到了具有黄土高原地理特征的地表粗糙度及其时空变化特征。计算结果表明, 季节变化对粗糙度的影响幅度可达0.159 m, 空间非均一性对粗糙度的影响幅度可达0.155 m。测站附近粗糙度春季为0.017 m, 夏季为0.062 m, 秋季为0.065 m, 冬季为0.018 m。测站西北方向上游粗糙度春季为0.17 m, 夏季为0.22 m, 秋季为0.34 m, 冬季为0.05 m。测站东南方向上游粗糙度春季为0.11 m, 夏季为0.17 m, 秋季为0.19 m, 冬季为0.05 m。该站下垫面粗糙度计算宜选用风速为6±1.5 m·s-1, 风向变化30°范围内的数据。  相似文献   

影响广播中波转播站防雷系统作用的几个关键技术     

廖必军  谭冰 《气象科技》2009,37(6):779-781

电台中波转播站多建于城市近郊区,由于天线高耸落雷几率高,因而易受雷击干扰。针对建站时原已通过防雷验收的转播站设施在投入使用后依然频遭雷击受损的状况,分析了其防雷系统的内在布设技术问题,认为广播中波转播站原有防雷系统的一些关键技术缺漏是遭雷击受损的主要原因,并从转播站的实际情况出发,提出了转播站防雷设计的几个关键技术问题的解决方法：接地网逐级分流、屏蔽馈线再加设外屏蔽环群技术以及不同的线路、不同系统保护的配合方法等,从而形成广播转播站完整的防雷保护系统框架。  相似文献   

从中期天气过程看近几年长江中下游梅雨偏少的原因   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

鲍名 《大气科学》2009,33(4):708-718

长江中下游地区自2000年到2007年连续八年梅雨期降水偏少。本文从中期天气过程的角度分析了这八年不利于长江中下游梅雨的主要因子, 有东亚高空急流中准定常波动、 西太平洋暖池强对流活动和西北太平洋热带气旋活动。西太平洋副热带高压受这些因子的直接影响, 在中期时间尺度上副高环流形势发生变异, 从而造成长江中下游梅雨期的降水异常减少。在这八年的梅雨期中, 这些因子的特别异常, 更主要的由于它们的组合作用是导致近年来长江中下游梅雨偏少的直接原因。并且, 同样是长江中下游梅雨偏少, 不同因子的组合方式也影响着长江中下游梅雨偏少的降水异常分布背景。本文还初浅地讨论了在季节内预测长江中下游梅雨时对中期天气过程的参考。  相似文献