陕西地区地震活动性的初步分析     

许俊奇 《内陆地震》1993,7(3):240-244

依据震中迁移、频度变化曲线、能量释放曲线、震级频度关系和时间序列的预测方法等,对陕西地区的地震活动性进行了初步分析,认为:陕西地区M_L>3.5级的地震活动存在着明显的由北向南、自东向西的迁移特点,其地震活动水平比较正常,今后5年内可能发生M_L≥4.3级地震。  相似文献   

基于统计学的地震显著平静阈值估计     

姜祥华  陈佳维  解孟雨  孟令媛 《地震地磁观测与研究》2020,41(2):23-30

提出具有统计学意义的地震显著平静阈值估算方法,用于中国大陆及川滇、新疆和华北地区中强震活动分析,在不同区域得到不同起始震级的显著平静阈值范围。结果显示:(1)中国大陆7级、6级和5级地震显著平静的阈值范围分别为3.9—6.2年、7.9—9.6个月和62—70天;(2)川滇地区6级和5级地震显著平静的阈值范围分别为2.1—2.9年和7.0—8.5个月;(3)新疆地区6级和5级地震显著平静的阈值范围分别为2.6—4.0年和8.5—10.5个月;(4)华北地区6级和5级地震显著平静的阈值范围分别为11.7—23.4年和5.2—7.7年。  相似文献   

青藏高原北部地区地震统计区划分及地震活动特征     

程建武  陈继峰  刘旭宙 《地震地磁观测与研究》2020,41(3):1-11

地震统计区的划分是研究地震活动性的重要前提和基础,通过对青藏高原北部地区构造地质背景的分析,依据地球物理特征和强震活动特点,讨论和划分该区地震活动统计区,探讨研究区地震活动的复发特点、地震构造特征、潜在地震危险性及强度,分析研究区未来强震发生的强度和可能地点,结果表明,目前青藏高原北部地区处于第8个活跃期,仍存在发生强震的可能,且未来数年存在发生7级以上地震的可能,应密切东昆仑断裂带东段和祁连山中西段地区。  相似文献   

PROGRAM FOR PROCESSING OF HISTORICAL LABORATORY DATA BASED ON FUZZY SET THEORY AS A TOOL FOR DECISION SUPPORT     

J.KLAESSENS  J.VANSCHALKWIJK  P.COX  R.BEZEMER  B.VANDEGINSTE  G.KATEMAN 《地理学报(英文版)》1988,(1)

A computer program(FEA)is presented for processing historical laboratory data.It performs on a list ofsample entries stored in a laboratory information management system.Using an algorithm which is basedon fuzzy set theory,FEA classifies the entries into a limited number of clusters called sample types.Theclassification is fully user-defined.The program transforms the historical data into a representation whichis more suitable for studying the performance of the laboratory or which can be used as preparation for asimulation project.  相似文献   

西南地区前兆观测异常特征和地震短期预测方法研究     

王云基  张立  官致君 《四川地震》2003,(4):1-13

通过对西南地区1970～2001年39组52次6级以上地震及四川部分5级以上地震震例资料的剖析,进一步研究西南地区各类前兆中、短期异常判据和指标;研究西南地区强震孕育前兆异常由中期向短期(临震)过渡、演化的标志和判据并作物理解释;并进行了西南地区前兆短期预测方法及强震短期预测时、空、强指标和判据的研究和西南地区地下流体新观测方法及灵敏测项的研究。  相似文献   

Seismic Activity Around and Under Krakatau Volcano,Sunda Arc: Constraints to the Source Region of Island Arc Volcanics     

Špičák  A.  Hanuš  V.  Vaněk  J. 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2002,46(3):545-565

There is general agreement that calc-alkaline volcanic rocks at convergent plate margins are genetically related to the process of subduction (Ringwood, 1974; Maaloe and Petersen, 1981; Hawkesworth et al., 1997). However, opinions on the mode and site of generation of primary magma for island arc volcanism differ substantially. The site of generation of calc-alkaline magma is thought to be either in the mantle wedge (Plank and Langmuir, 1988; McCulloch and Gamble, 1991) or in the subducting slab (White and Dupré, 1986; Defant and Drummond, 1990; Edwards et al., 1993; Ryan and Langmuir, 1993). We present seismological evidence in favour of the latter concept. A distinctive seismicity pattern around and under the Krakatau volcano was identified during systematic studies of the SE Asian convergent plate margins by means of global seismological data. A column-like cluster of events, probably associated with the dynamics of the volcano, is clearly separated from the events in the Wadati-Benioff zone. The accuracy of hypocentral determinations of the events of the cluster does not differ from the accuracy of the events belonging to the subducting slab. The depths of the cluster events vary from very shallow to about 100 km without any apparent discontinuity. On the other hand, there is a pronounced aseismic gap in the Wadati-Benioff zone directly beneath the volcano at depths between 100-150 km. The Krakatau cluster connects this aseismic gap to the volcano at the surface. The pervasive occurrence of earthquakes in the continental wedge between the subducting slab and the Earth surface bears witness to the brittle character of the continental lithosphere and casts doubt on the existence of large-scale melting of mantle material. The aseismic gap (Hanu and Vank, 1985), interpreted by us as a partially melted domain occurring in subducted slabs in practically all active subduction zones that reach depths greater than 100 km, is here used as evidence for the location of the primary source region of island arc volcanics in the subducting plate.  相似文献   

舟坝水电站水库蓄水对乐山市地震活动的影响及对策     

彭云金  吕贵选  高福海  苟健  吕加蓉 《四川地震》2006,(1):44-46

在对铜街子水电站蓄水后库坝区及附近出现的地震活动特点进行分析的基础上,对另外一个舟坝水电站库坝区的地质结构和历史地震活动情况进行探讨,认为舟坝水电站蓄水产生诱发地震的可能性较大,五渡—利店断裂附近的马边、沐川、沙湾等地的诱发地震可能为5级以上,犍为县城附近可能出现的地震为4级左右。针对这些问题提出了减轻诱发地震造成损失的相应对策。  相似文献   

龙泉山断裂带地震活动性浅析   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

徐水森  任寰  宋杰 《四川地震》2006,(2):21-27

通过对龙泉山断裂带东坡断裂和西坡断裂的地震活动性研究,表明该带是一条活断层。历史地震记载和现今地震活动均呈现沿断裂带分布,地震活动呈现周期性和南北跳迁的特点,近10年来地震监测资料表明该带地震活动在增强。  相似文献   

Interrelation among several important links in seismic risk analysis     

黄玮琼  吴宣 《地震学报(英文版)》2006,19(3):284-291

Introduction In the probability analysis method of seismic risk considering time-space inhomogeneity of seismic activity and adopted commonly in China (State Seismological Bureau, 1996) (called in-homogeneous distribution model for short), the division of seismic statistical regions, delimitation of potential seismic sources and estimation of seismicity parameters are the main links that affect significantly the estimation of ground motion parameters of a site. HUANG and WU (2005) studied …  相似文献   

Can Damage Mechanics Explain Temporal Scaling Laws in Brittle Fracture and Seismicity?     

Donald L. Turcotte  Robert Shcherbakov 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2006,163(5-6):1031-1045

Time delays associated with processes leading to a failure or stress relaxation in materials and earthquakes are studied in terms of continuum damage mechanics. Damage mechanics is a quasi-empirical approach that describes inelastic irreversible phenomena in the deformation of solids. When a rock sample is loaded, there is generally a time delay before the rock fails. This period is characterized by the occurrence and coalescence of microcracks which radiate acoustic signals of broad amplitudes. These acoustic emission events have been shown to exhibit power-law scaling as they increase in intensity prior to a rupture. In case of seismogenic processes in the Earth's brittle crust, all earthquakes are followed by an aftershock sequence. A universal feature of aftershocks is that their rate decays in time according to the modified Omori's law, a power-law decay. In this paper a model of continuum damage mechanics in which damage (microcracking) starts to develop when the applied stress exceeds a prescribed yield stress (a material parameter) is introduced to explain both laboratory experiments and systematic temporal variations in seismicity.  相似文献