Representing and communicating deep uncertainty in climate-change assessments   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Milind Kandlikar  James Risbey  Suraje Dessai 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2005,337(4):443-455

IPCC reports provide a synthesis of the state of the science in order to inform the international policy process. This task is made difficult by the presence of deep uncertainty in the climate problem that results from long time scales and complexity. This paper focuses on how deep uncertainty can be effectively communicated. We argue that existing schemes do an inadequate job of communicating deep uncertainty and propose a simple approach that distinguishes between various levels of subjective understanding in a systematic manner. We illustrate our approach with two examples. To cite this article: M. Kandlikar et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).  相似文献   

Reply to the comment on J.U. Klügel's “Problems in the application of the SSHAC probability method for assessing earthquake hazards at Swiss nuclear power plants”, in Engineering Geology, Vol. 78, pp. 285-307, by Budnitz, by, J.U, Klügel     

J.-U. Klügel 《Engineering Geology》2005,82(1):79-85

  相似文献   

The evolution of the electronics industry in Johor (Malaysia): Strategic coupling,adaptiveness, adaptation,and the role of agency     

《Geoforum》2016

Bringing together concepts from the global production networks and evolutionary economic geography literature, this article empirically examines the trajectory of the electrical and electronics industry in Johor (Malaysia). Based on trends in firm entries and exit as well as interviews with companies, we find limited robustness in the industry’s trajectory. While there is evidence of the role of ‘structure’ in this outcome, we argue that human agency – particularly the actions of subnational policy-makers – is key. This is manifest in a preference for fostering regional ‘adaptiveness’ through the often uncritical promotion of a diversity of economic sectors. This compromises the meaningful pursuit of regional ‘adaptation’ in the form of new and more complex branches emerging from existing industries. This arrested development, in turn, hinders an effective strategic coupling between the regional economy and multinational corporations, thus undermining regional resilience.  相似文献   

Knowing wildfire risk: Scientific interactions with risk mitigation policy and practice in Victoria,Australia     

《Geoforum》2016

Over the past decade, major landscape wildfires (or ‘bushfires’ in Australia) in fire-prone countries have illustrated the seriousness of this global environmental problem. This natural hazard presents a complex mesh of dynamic factors for those seeking to reduce or manage its costs, as ignitions, hazard behaviour, and the reactions of different human and ecological communities during and after hazard events are all extremely uncertain. But while those at risk of wildfire have been subject to significant research, the social dimensions of its management, including the role of science, have received little attention. This paper reports on a case study of the Barwon-Otway area of Victoria in Australia, a high wildfire risk area that has recently been a pilot site for a new risk mitigation strategy utilising the wildfire simulation model PHOENIX RapidFire. Against simple equations between ‘more science’ and ‘less uncertainty,’ this paper presents results from interviews and a workshop with practitioners to investigate how scientific research interacts with and informs both wildfire policy and practice. We suggest that attending to cultural and social specificities of the application of any technical innovation—such as next generation modelling—raises questions for future research about the roles of narrative, performance, and other knowledges in the sedimentation of science.  相似文献   

我国重要矿产资源战略性评价     

胡永达 《地质论评》2016,62(S1):103-104

重要矿产资源尤其是战略性矿产的安全保障历来是世界各国关注的重点之一。关于战略性矿产的研究,欧美等发达国家和地区已经建立了一套比较成熟的理论和方法,并不定期更新战略性矿产目录。而我国对于战略性矿产的研究相对较晚,尚未形成统一的内涵意义、评价体系和方法。为此,本文在重新界定战略性矿产内涵基础上构建供应风险-经济价值二维评价体系,运用定性和定量相结合的评价方法综合评价我国主要矿产资源的战略性。  相似文献   

Assessment of human health impact from exposure to multiple air pollutants in China based on satellite observations     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2016

Assessment of human health impact caused by air pollution is crucial for evaluating environmental hazards. In this paper, concentrations of six air pollutants (PM₁₀, PM_2.5, NO₂, SO₂, O₃, and CO) were first derived from satellite observations, and then the overall human health risks in China caused by multiple air pollutants were assessed using an aggregated health risks index. Unlike traditional approach for human health risks assessment, which relied on the in-situ air pollution measurements, the spatial distribution of aggregated human health risks in China were obtained using satellite observations in this research. It was indicated that the remote sensing data have advantages over in-situ data in accessing human health impact caused by air pollution.  相似文献   

Information structuring and risk-based inspection for the marine oil pipelines     

《Applied Ocean Research》2016

The proposed work is incorporated into the research theme concerning the maintenance and inspection of sensitive facilities in production systems. It is essential to promote the methodological deployment of inspection techniques to ensure the good functioning of services provided by complex production systems as well as their different components. We use a risk-based inspection methodology offering an organized analysis with knowledge sharing for collaborative possibilities in a multidisciplinary context and it consists of the following steps: data acquisition and information collection, failure analysis (probability and consequences), risk assessment, inspection plan, mitigation and revaluation. The application of this methodology can improve the maintenance management strategies of industrial companies. The inspection department is able to forecast its potential failure, root causes and impacts on the safe operation of the considered production system, based on a reliable inventory of existing situations and review options for continuous improvement in maintenance management. In particular, we addressed the application of a Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) methodology in the French petroleum company with operations on the west coast of central and southern Africa. The incorporation of expert knowledge into risk assessment is helping to find the best preventive plan for pipeline inspection in the case study.  相似文献   

A proposal for restructuring Descriptor 3 of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD)     

《Marine Policy》2016

  相似文献   

人为干扰对滨海湿地生态系统的影响   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

杨杰峰  张曼胤  康晓明  李伟  雷茵茹  崔丽娟 《湿地科学与管理》2016,(1):42-45

对滨海湿地生态系统的主要人为干扰方式进行了系统辨识,详细阐述了不同人为干扰方式对滨海湿地生态系统结构、功能及服务的影响。综合分析了人为干扰造成的滨海湿地生态系统的结构改变、功能破坏、服务减少,其中,城市化、工业化进程干扰对滨海湿地生态系统的影响最为严重,并提出了滨海湿地保护对策。  相似文献   

Uncertainty in dam safety risk analysis     

Gregory B. Baecher 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2016,10(2):92-108

The character and importance of uncertainty in dam safety risk analysis drives how risk assessments are used in practice. The current interpretation of uncertainty is that, in addition to the aleatory risk which arises from presumed uncertainty in the world, it comprises the epistemic aspects of irresolution in a model or forecast, specifically model and parameter uncertainty. This is true in part but it is not all there is to uncertainty in risk analysis. The physics of hazards and of failure may be poorly understood, which goes beyond uncertainty in its conventional sense. There may be alternative scenarios of future conditions, for example non-stationarity in the environment, which cannot easily be forecast. There may also be deep uncertainties of the type associated with climate change. These are situations in which analysts do not know or do not agree on the system characterisation relating actions to consequences or on the probability distributions for key parameters. All of these facets are part of the uncertainty in risk analysis with which we must deal.  相似文献