Prediction of the occurrence of Related Strong Earthquakes in Italy     

Inessa A. Vorobieva  Giuliano F. Panza 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1993,141(1):25-41

In the seismic flow it is often observed that a Strong Earthquake (SE), is followed by Related Strong Earthquakes (RSEs), which occur near the epicenter of the SE with origin time rather close to the origin time of the SE. The algorithm for the prediction of the occurrence of a RSE has been developed and applied for the first time to the seismicity data of the California-Nevada region and has been successfully tested in several regions of the world, the statistical significance of the result being 97%. To date it has been possible to make five successful forward predictions, with no false alarms or failures to predict.The algorithm is applied here to the Italian territory, where the occurrence of RSEs is a particularly rare phenomenon. Our results show that the standard algorithm is successfully directly applicable without adjustment of the parameters. Eleven SEs are considered. Of them, three are followed by a RSE, as predicted by the algorithm, eight SEs are not followed by a RSE, and the algorithm predicts this behaviour for seven of them, giving rise to only one false alarm. Since, in Italy, often the series of strong earthquakes is relatively short, the algorithm has been extended to handle such a situation. The result of this experiment indicates that it is possible to attempt to test a SE, for the occurrence of a RSE, soon after the occurrence of the SE itself, performing timely preliminary recognition on reduced data sets. This fact, the high confidence level of the retrospective analysis, and the first successful forward predictions, made in different parts of the World, indicates that, even if additional tests are desirable, the algorithm can already be considered for routine application to Civil Defence.  相似文献   

Automatic equipment to monitor groundwater radon     

F. Bella  R. Bella  P. F. Biagi  M. Caputo  G. Della Monica  A. Ermini  E. Pettinelli  V. Sgrigna 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1993,141(1):125-137

Prototype instrumentation, able to automatically measure groundwater radon content variations, is presented. The equipment is made of stainless steel and has spherical valves with automatic and pneumatic control. The deemanation of the gases from the water is obtained by evacuating a suitable expansion chamber. The instrumentation can make discrete sampling ranging from 1 per hour to 1 per 99 hours. The equipment was tested in the laboratory: the efficiency was measured by means of a²⁶⁶Ra solution. A mean value of (0.65±0.07) count/s/Bq was obtained. A calibration test was carried out by comparing countings from the automatic equipment with those obtained by the standard laboratory cell. Results of an operational check over a period of approximately one year indicate that variations in radon at the calibration site are attributable more to meteorological than to tectonic causes.  相似文献   

首都减灾圈的思考与建议     

张少泉  吕庆书 《地震》1993,(5):47-61

首都减灾圈,系首都减轻自然灾害预测防治圈。1991年12月20—21日在北京召开了《首都圈自然灾害及其减灾对策研讨会》。本文根据这次会议所提供的材料,在从整体上实现减灾的思想指导下,就首都减灾圈的“成灾背景”、“首都减灾圈的组成”、“首都减灾圈的灾害预测与防治状况”、“首都减灾圈的灾害关联性分析”、“首都减灾圈的减灾实效预估”和“首都减灾圈的减灾对策与实施”等六个带有共同性的问题,进行了讨论。供制定首都圈减灾方案时参考。  相似文献   

1983年菏泽5.9级地震前后沂水泉氡的变化   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张昭栋  高玉斌 《地震》1993,(6):1-6

沂水泉位于山东省沂水一汤头断裂带上。多年来的观测分析表明,影响沂水泉氡值变化的最大干扰是降雨。由于这种干扰存在着“记忆”滞后影响,所以用一般的相关分析难以将这种影响排除干净。本文对最小二乘法为建立模型的判据,用动态灰箱分析法拟合并推估观测系统的变化。在分析中用了四个状态变量：长趋势成分Ｌ（ｔ）、年周期变化成分Ｐ（ｔ）、降雨影响部分Ｒ（ｔ）和随机变化部分Ｓ（ｔ）。经过分析表明,沂水泉氡的长趋势部分１  相似文献   

新疆地震预报研究     

朱令人 《内陆地震》1993,7(2):90-105

新疆的地震预报是1970年开始的。二十多年来在“边观测、边研究、边预报”、“多路探索、多兵种联合作战”、“走综合预报之路”的方针指导下取得了长足的进展。建设了43个地震台站,投入189套仪器,建成了遍布全疆的地震无线通讯网,开展了历史地震调查和地震烈度区划工作,建立健全了地震会商预报制度,进行了多方面的地震预报研究。实际地震预报统计分析表明,扣除自然发震概率之后,趋势预报的成功率约0.3,短临预报的成功率约0.1。在前兆台网控制范围内取得了一些震例,说明地震确实是有前兆的,但又是非常复杂的。地震预报作为科学难题还有漫长的路要走。作者简要地讨论了地震观测的间接性和地震异常的离散性、难以区别的地震异常和地壳变动异常、建立在复杂现象基础上的地震前兆以及地震的混沌性对地震预报的影响等科学问题。  相似文献   

辽宁地区主要断裂活动性和地震危险性评估     

曹凤娟  贾丽华  李梦莹  王松阳 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2021,51(1):286-295

基于辽宁地区主要活动断裂的几何特征和空间展布，对1980年以来辽宁地区M_L≥2.0地震的累计频次和1900年以来M_s≥5.0地震的年发生率的空间分布及其与活动断裂构造背景关系进行研究，获得了基于地震学的辽宁省内主要断裂和构造区（带）的活动性与地震危险性的初步评估结果。辽宁地区主要断裂活动性较高的有海城河断裂、金州断裂九寨—盖州北段、朝阳—北票断裂等；辽宁地区未来3年发生M_s≥5.0地震危险性较高的断裂依次有海城河断裂、金州断裂、熊岳—庄河断裂、鸭绿江断裂及赤峰—开原断裂与柳河断裂交汇处等。在判定区域地震危险性和城市地震风险时，除了依据前兆异常的空间分布，还应充分考虑区内主要构造（断裂）的活动性与地震危险性。  相似文献   

A Step Towards Evaluation of the Seismic Response Reduction Factor in Multistorey Reinforced Concrete Frames   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Barakat  Samar a.  Husein Malkawi  Abdallah I.  Al-Shatnawi  Anis S. 《Natural Hazards》1997,16(1):65-80

A seismic nonlinear time-history analysis was made for four-, six-, and eight-storey reinforced concrete buildings. These buildings were made as three-dimensional space frame structures with shear walls in both orthogonal directions. They have five bays with 4.8 m spacing each in the horizontal direction, and three bays with 4.2 m spacing each in the transversal direction. The frames were designed according to the Jordanian Seismic Code of practice for Seismic Zones 4, 3, 2, and 1 as proposed for Jordan by several authors. Time-history analysis was made using the El Centro (N-S) earthquake record of May 1940 as an actual earthquake excitation. The response reduction factor (R) that primarily consists of two factors that are the ductility reduction (Rµ) and the overstrength (), is obtained. It has been seen that the seismic zoning has a slight effect on the ductility reduction factor for different buildings, since it ranges from Zone 4 to Zone 1 as 2.37 to 2.52, 1.72 to 1.78, and 1.14 to 1.18 for four-, six-, and eight-storey buildings, respectively. Moreover, it is observed that, for different buildings and different seismic zones, the ductility reduction factor (Rµ) is slightly different from the system ductility factor (µ) especially for higher values of µ (i.e., Rµ µ). The response reduction factor, called overstrength (), was evaluated. The overstrength factor was found to vary with seismic zones (Z) , number of stories, and design gravity loads. However, the dependency on seismic zones was the strongest. The average overstrength of these buildings in Zones 4 and 1 was 2.61 and 6.94, respectively. The overstrength increased as the number of storeys decreased: overstrength of a four-storey building was higher than an eight-storey building by 36% in Zone 4, and 39% in Zone 1. Furthermore, buildings of the three heights had an average overstrength 165.9% higher in Zone 1 than in Zone 4. These observations have a significant implications for the seismic design codes which currently do not take into account the variation of the response reduction factor, R (i.e., ductility reduction factor times overstrength).  相似文献   

地震前兆含义,科学问题与研究途径的研讨   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3  

张肇诚  王贵宣 《地震》1997,17(4):429-439

地震前兆的研究已经取得了很大的进展,地震前兆的复杂性引起了广泛的关注,对地震预报、有关科学问题和探索途径的研究现状及其前景有各种评价。文章认为由于一些科学问题没有解决,尽管对中缅边境１９９５年７月连７．３级地震作出了成功预报,经验性预报有一定的局限性,文中讨论了广义地震前兆和狭义地震前兆,广义地震前兆包含二类前兆：场兆和源兆;而狭义前兆仅指后者。大陆震例前兆的系统研究证实了广义地震前兆的存在,然而  相似文献   

地震短临综合预报方法的研究     

李文英  平建军 《华北地震科学》1995,13(3):36-43

本文在《中国震例》资料基础上,详细分析了华北地区１７次中强以上地震前的短临异常,得到华北地区中强以上地震短临异常的三个综合特征,在归纳出短临异常综合特征的基础上,提出了两个判定孕震过程、前兆异常由中期向短期过渡的定量的综合标志。据中期异常的追踪分析和短临异常综合分析相结合的原则,定义并计算了综合预报指标Ｓ值,以此值作为是否发生中强以上地震的判据。本文的重点是在分析短临异常综合特征的基础上,结合实用  相似文献   

合肥遥测台网地震速报系统     

刘东旺  黎捷 《地震地磁观测与研究》1995,16(6):27-34

论述了适用于遥测地震台网大震速报的一套计算机处理系统,系统设计以《全国遥测台网观测技术规范》和《近震分析》理论为依据,实现了数据输入,震相选择,数据处理,地震定位,震级计算,结果输出及贮存等多项功能,达到了快速确定地震三要素,提高速报速度和精度之目的,是一个较完善的,实用的速报系统。  相似文献