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A fuzzy inference system (FIS) and a hybrid adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), which combines a fuzzy inference system and a neural network, are used to predict and model longshore sediment transport (LST). The measurement data (field and experimental data) obtained from Kamphuis [1] and Smith et al. [2] were used to develop the model. The FIS and ANFIS models employ five inputs (breaking wave height, breaking wave angle, slope at the breaking point, peak wave period and median grain size) and one output (longshore sediment transport rate). The criteria used to measure the performances of the models include the bias, the root mean square error, the scatter index and the coefficients of determination and correlation. The results indicate that the ANFIS model is superior to the FIS model for predicting LST rates. To verify the ANFIS model, the model was applied to the Karaburun coastal region, which is located along the southwestern coast of the Black Sea. The LST rates obtained from the ANFIS model were compared with the field measurements, the CERC [3] formula, the Kamphuis [1] formula and the numerical model (LITPACK). The percentages of error between the measured rates and the calculated LST rates based on the ANFIS method, the CERC formula (Ksig = 0.39), the calibrated CERC formula (Ksig = 0.08), the Kamphuis [1] formula and the numerical model (LITPACK) are 6.5%, 413.9%, 6.9%, 15.3% and 18.1%, respectively. The comparison of the results suggests that the ANFIS model is superior to the FIS model for predicting LST rates and performs significantly better than the tested empirical formulas and the numerical model. 相似文献
74.
Hugo K.H.Olierook Richard Scalzo David Kohn Rohitash Chandra Ehsan Farahbakhsh Chris Clark Steven M.Reddy R.Dietmar Müller 《地学前缘(英文版)》2021,12(1):479-493
Traditional approaches to develop 3D geological models employ a mix of quantitative and qualitative scientific techniques,which do not fully provide quantification of uncertainty in the constructed models and fail to optimally weight geological field observations against constraints from geophysical data.Here,using the Bayesian Obsidian software package,we develop a methodology to fuse lithostratigraphic field observations with aeromagnetic and gravity data to build a 3D model in a small(13.5 km×13.5 km)region of the Gascoyne Province,Western Australia.Our approach is validated by comparing 3D model results to independently-constrained geological maps and cross-sections produced by the Geological Survey of Western Australia.By fusing geological field data with aeromagnetic and gravity surveys,we show that 89%of the modelled region has>95%certainty for a particular geological unit for the given model and data.The boundaries between geological units are characterized by narrow regions with<95%certainty,which are typically 400-1000 m wide at the Earth's surface and 500-2000 m wide at depth.Beyond~4 km depth,the model requires geophysical survey data with longer wavelengths(e.g.,active seismic)to constrain the deeper subsurface.Although Obsidian was originally built for sedimentary basin problems,there is reasonable applicability to deformed terranes such as the Gascoyne Province.Ultimately,modification of the Bayesian engine to incorporate structural data will aid in developing more robust 3D models.Nevertheless,our results show that surface geological observations fused with geophysical survey data can yield reasonable 3D geological models with narrow uncertainty regions at the surface and shallow subsurface,which will be especially valuable for mineral exploration and the development of 3D geological models under cover. 相似文献
75.
为快速准确地求解突发性水污染溯源问题,在微分进化与蒙特卡罗基础上提出了一种新的溯源方法。该方法将溯源问题视为贝叶斯估计问题,推导出污染源强度、位置和排放时刻等未知参数的后验概率密度函数;结合微分进化和蒙特卡罗模拟方法对后验概率分布进行采样,进而估计出这些未知参数,确定污染源项。通过算例与贝叶斯-蒙特卡罗方法进行对比,结果表明:该方法可使迭代次数有效缩减3/4,污染源强度、位置和排放时刻的平均相对误差分别减少1.23%、2.23%和4.15%,均值误差分别降低0.39%、0.83%和1.49%,其稳定性和可靠性明显高于贝叶斯-蒙特卡罗方法,能较好地识别突发性水污染源,为解决突发水污染事件中的追踪溯源难点问题提供了新的思路和方法。 相似文献
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ABSTRACTNowadays, mathematical models are widely used to predict climate processes, but little has been done to compare the models. In this study, multiple linear regression (MLR), multi-layer perceptron (MLP) network and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) models were compared for precipitation forecasting. The large-scale climate signals were considered as inputs to the applied models. After selecting the most effective climate indices, the effects of large-scale climate signals on the seasonal standardized precipitation index (SPI) of the Maharlu-Bakhtaran catchment, Iran, simultaneously and with a delay, was analysed using a cross-correlation function. Hence, the SPI time series was forecasted up to four time intervals using MLR, MLP and ANFIS. The results showed that most of the indices were significant with SPI of different lag times. Comparison of the SPI forecast results by MLR, MLP and ANFIS models showed better performance for the MLP network than the other two models (RMSE = 0.86, MAE = 0.74 for the first step ahead of SPI forecasting).
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor F. Pappenberger 相似文献
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基于Wavelet-ANFIS和MODIS地表温度产品的青藏高原0 cm土壤温度估算方法 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
0 cm土壤温度是冻土模型的上边界条件, 连续的、 高质量的青藏高原0 cm土壤温度数据是进行准确冻土模拟的必要条件. 然而受复杂下垫面的影响, 遥感手段无法获取可靠的0 cm土壤温度. 利用自适应网络模糊推理系统(ANFIS)结合青藏高原实测资料建立遥感地表温度产品(LST)与0 cm土壤温度的关系, 以实现通过LST估算青藏高原逐日0 cm土壤温度. 研究了ANFIS的各种参数组合, 发现筛选合适的小波函数、 小波窗口、 小波层数建立起来的Wavelet-ANFIS模型能较准确实现估算0 cm土壤温度的目的. 验证表明, 估算结果与气象站点实测0 cm土壤温度绝对误差在2 K以下, 相关系数0.98以上. 考虑到原始MODIS LST误差在0~2 K之间, 该方法可以获取较为理想的0 cm土壤温度, 为冻土模型提供准确的上边界输入. 相似文献
79.
Evaporation estimation using artificial neural networks and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system techniques 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Evaporation, as a major component of the hydrologic cycle, plays a key role in water resources development and management in arid and semi-arid climatic regions. Although there are empirical formulas available, their performances are not all satisfactory due to the complicated nature of the evaporation process and the data availability. This paper explores evaporation estimation methods based on artificial neural networks (ANN) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) techniques. It has been found that ANN and ANFIS techniques have much better performances than the empirical formulas (for the test data set, ANN R2 = 0.97, ANFIS R2 = 0.92 and Marciano R2 = 0.54). Between ANN and ANFIS, ANN model is slightly better albeit the difference is small. Although ANN and ANFIS techniques seem to be powerful, their data input selection process is quite complicated. In this research, the Gamma test (GT) has been used to tackle the problem of the best input data combination and how many data points should be used in the model calibration. More studies are needed to gain wider experience about this data selection tool and how it could be used in assessing the validation data. 相似文献
80.
Seismic safety of high concrete dams 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
Peak ground acceleration(PGA) estimation is an important task in earthquake engineering practice.One of the most well-known models is the Boore-Joyner-Fumal formula,which estimates the PGA using the moment magnitude,the site-to-fault distance and the site foundation properties.In the present study,the complexity for this formula and the homogeneity assumption for the prediction-error variance are investigated and an effi ciency-robustness balanced formula is proposed.For this purpose,a reduced-order Monte Carlo simulation algorithm for Bayesian model class selection is presented to obtain the most suitable predictive formula and prediction-error model for the seismic attenuation relationship.In this approach,each model class(a predictive formula with a prediction-error model) is evaluated according to its plausibility given the data.The one with the highest plausibility is robust since it possesses the optimal balance between the data fi tting capability and the sensitivity to noise.A database of strong ground motion records in the Tangshan region of China is obtained from the China Earthquake Data Center for the analysis.The optimal predictive formula is proposed based on this database.It is shown that the proposed formula with heterogeneous prediction-error variance is much simpler than the attenuation model suggested by Boore,Joyner and Fumal(1993). 相似文献