专家系统及其在矿产预测中的应用     

庄建敏 《河南国土资源》1994,(1)

专家系统是一门新兴的计算机人工智能实用学科，它能够应用专家的知识和思维方式去解决实际问题。它主要由知识库和推理机组成。ＨＮＤＰＥＳ系统是在总结河南主要矿产成矿规律的基础上建造的矿床预测专家系统。在河南省富铝土矿成矿预测中取得了良好的效果。  相似文献   

A practical solution for linear inference computations     

M. Schlax  D. W. Oldenburg 《Geophysical Journal International》1985,83(2):331-345

Summary. In this paper, we present a matrix form of Backus' theory of linear inference with multiple predictions. The Bayesian approach used by Backus allows the treatment of erroneous data and the imposition of the essential a priori bound on the model norm. We introduce a modification which involves translating the problem in accordance with an estimated model. Such a model may be known a priori or it may be constructed from the data. We are effectively able to bound the norm of all acceptable models from above and below and this results in more confining estimates of the predictions than provided by just an upper bound. In addition, the model construction approach allows us to make maximum use of the data in the inference computation. Our algorithm is robust and efficient, and estimates comparable to to those obtained from linear programming techniques have been achieved.  相似文献   

Artificial intelligence methods in geological forecasting   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

A. N. Bugaets  E. P. Vostroknutov  A. I. Vostroknutova 《Mathematical Geology》1991,23(1):9-13

The objective of applications of expert systems to geological forecasting is to use heuristic knowledge of experienced geologists, as well as their intuition and facility for drawing the right forecast conclusions based on incomplete data. At the same time, considerable experience is accumulated in geological forecasting with formal mathematical models that generalize the setting of some forecast problem classes. Thus, the bottom-up heuristic approach and the more formal top-down methods are aspiring to the same aim, so they supplement and strengthen each other. A forecast expert system called GENESIS that allows both approaches to be used has been produced. The heuristic part of GENESIS is the empty expert system, which consists of the knowledge definition language, destined for an expert geologist, the knowledge base used for forecast models storing, then forming knowledge base facilities, relational database for storing user's data and forecast specimen, components that organize the certain inference and its explanation.  相似文献   

水文气象极值统计推断的可靠性问题   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

董双林 《水科学进展》2012,23(4):575-580

论述极值统计推断不可靠的表现、产生原因及提高可靠性的途径、可操作性方法和可靠性评价。提出收敛域准则、极大似然估计的精估计和粗估计、泛似然估计、多母体现象,应用超拟合现象、抽样误差、蒙特卡罗随机模拟等概念或方法,得出全国各气象站多个气象要素的可靠极值统计推断结果,初步形成小样本统计理论。  相似文献   

Delineation of hydrologically similar units in a watershed based on fuzzy classification of soil hydraulic properties     

Priyabrata Santra  Bhabani Sankar Das  Debashish Chakravarty 《水文研究》2011,25(1):64-79

Evaluation of flow and transport processes in a watershed‐scale requires that the watershed be divided into homogenous spatial units referred to as hydrologically similar units (HSUs). Although a few discretization schemes are already in use, a universally acceptable method of obtaining HSUs is yet to emerge. In this study, we developed a fuzzy inference system (FIS) to classify the saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_s) and two water‐retention parameters α and n into fuzzy logic‐based soil hydrologic classes (FSHCs). Analysis of these classes showed that soil properties within an FSHC have less variability and those between two FSHCs have large variability. This result suggested that soils belonging to a specific FSHC may be more similar than those across different FSHCs and may be grouped together to represent an HSU. Soils within a specific hydrologic class were aggregated to delineate HSUs within the watershed. For the Dengei Pahad micro‐watershed (DPW), this approach showed five distinct regions representing a discretized zone having similar soil hydraulic properties. Application of this approach on a larger international database of soil hydraulic properties revealed that the developed hydrologic classes are quite comparable across different databases. The delineated HSUs based on these FSHCs were also better than the soil series map of the watershed in maintaining the soil heterogeneity of the watershed. Moreover, this new discretization scheme using the SWAT modelling environment showed better performance than the soil series‐based discretization approach. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Reply to Comment on ‘Firat M,Güngor M. 2008. Hydrological time‐series modelling using an adaptive neuro‐fuzzy inference system. Hydrological Processes 22: 2122–2132’     

M. Firat  M. Güngor 《水文研究》2009,23(5):795-795

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On maximum likelihood estimation of parameters in incorrectly specified models of covariance for spatial data     

A. J. Watkins  F. H. M. Al-Boutiahi 《Mathematical Geology》1990,22(2):151-173

The analysis of, and from, models of spatial data usually proceeds under the assumption, often implicit, that the correct model has been specified. However, any model identification procedures based on sample data are subject to error, and consequences of such errors then permeate subsequent analysis. Thus, an attempt to quantify some of these consequences is of interest. A standard framework for analysis is extended here, by introduction of information theory, to permit the study of effects of model misspecification on maximum likelihood estimators of parameters of model covariance. Asymptotically valid theoretical results are presented, and the relevance of these results to samples of finite sizes met in practice is assessed in a series of simulation experiments. The effect of model misspecification, and use of estimators of parameters of misspecified covariance models, on the practical problem of prediction at a previously unsampled location is considered briefly, and further areas for possible investigation are outlined.  相似文献   

基于Sugeno型模糊推理的震中烈度预测模型     

赵宜宾  王涛  张鹤翔  曾文艺 《地震工程与工程振动》2011,31(3):39-44

以Sugeno型模糊推理系统为基础,建立了以震级和震源深度为输入,以震中烈度为输出的震中烈度预测模型,并以四川地区震例数据为例,对模型构建的关键环节进行了详细的说明.通过与参考文献中的拟合模型进行预测数据对比分析,可得本文的推理预测模型精度更高,误差更小,且有更强的扩展性.  相似文献   

模糊逻辑在物理栖息模拟中的应用     

赵越  周建中  常剑波  张勇传  宋利祥  毕胜 《水科学进展》2013,24(3):427-435

为了克服已有物理栖息地模型仅能在具有较完善监测资料河流使用的局限性,介绍了一种应用模糊逻辑的物理栖息地模拟方法。该方法以河道平面二维流场模拟结果为基础,将鱼类学和生态学专家的知识经验融入物理栖息地模型中,运用模糊逻辑推理计算栖息地各单元适宜度,最后根据加权可用面积、高适宜度面积比例与流量的关系曲线确定生态需水量。运用该方法对葛洲坝坝下中华鲟产卵栖息地进行模拟。研究结果表明,中华鲟产卵期适宜生态需水量为10 000~17 000 m3/s。分析认为该方法对监测资料依赖程度低,使用专家知识经验能够弥补数据不足造成的不利影响,具有一定的可行性及实用性。该研究有助于监测资料不足的河流开展生态保护及河流管理工作,并且能够为模糊数学理论在水生态学中的应用提供参考。  相似文献   

Pumping-rate control for contaminated groundwater with VOCs by using fuzzy inference model     

《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2013,7(2):63-76

In this paper, a new method is proposed for the remediation of contaminated groundwater. The method is based on fuzzy inference and risk evaluation. The effectiveness of the presented method is assessed in numerical simulations. The main results of the study are as follows: 1) A pump-and-treat control algorithm was proposed by using the fuzzy inference and the human health risk calculation model, 2) It was found that applying the proposed algorithm was likely to reduce the pumped quantity, and 3) It was found that the proposed model can be used to notify residents of the human health risk; the model is based on the ASTM RBCA model for residents. A new fuzzy control system for contaminated groundwater can be used as a useful model for characterising the effects of contaminants on human health and providing helpful information on the human risk assessment of the contaminated groundwater site.  相似文献