Field survey of the East Java earthquake and tsunami of June 3, 1994     

Yoshinobu Tsuji  Fumihiko Imamura  Hideo Matsutomi  Costas E. Synolakis  Puspito T. Nanang  Jumadi  Satoshi Harada  Se Sub Han  Ken'ichi Arai  Benjamin Cook 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1995,144(3-4):839-854

A field survey of the June 3, 1994 East Java earthquake tsunami was conducted within three weeks, and the distributions of the seismic intensities, tsunami heights, and human and house damages were surveyed. The seismic intensities on the south coasts of Java and Bali Islands were small for an earthquake with magnitudeM 7.6. The earthquake caused no land damage. About 40 minutes after the main shock, a huge tsunami attacked the coasts, several villages in East Java Province were damaged severely, and 223 persons perished. At Pancer Village about 70 percent of the houses were swept away and 121 persons were killed by the tsunami. The relationship between tsunami heights and distances from the source shows that the Hatori's tsunami magnitude wasm=3, which seems to be larger for the earthquake magnitude. But we should not consider this an extraordinary event because it was pointed out byHatori (1994) that the magnitudes of tsunamis in the Indonesia-Philippine region generally exceed 1–2 grade larger than those of other regions.  相似文献   

Numerical Modeling of the Ston-Slano (Croatia) Aftershock Sequence     

Herak  Marijan  Herak  Davorka  Markušić  Snježana  Ivančić  Ines 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2001,45(3):251-266

The rate of aftershock occurrence after the M6 Ston-Slano (Croatia) earthquake is modeled as the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS). Increase of the modeled cumulative number of aftershocks with time was fitted to observations by the least-squares criterion using the combined grid-search and Monte-Carlo approach. This enabled not only the estimation of the most probable ETAS parameters, but also the determination of their confidence limits, as well as the estimation of the bias between them. It has been found that the bias is significant for some of the parameter pairs, regardless of the threshold magnitude assumed. Residual analyses revealed that all strong aftershocks (M _L 4.5) occurred during the periods of normal to high aftershock activity. There were two periods of quiescence in the sequence, both of which were followed by a strong aftershock.  相似文献   

地震序列较强余震灰色及最小二乘拟合预测方法的应用研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

平建军  刘荣环  贾炯  曹肃朝  王立军 《华北地震科学》2005,23(1):6-13

在收集、整理1966年～2002年8月我国(主要为大陆地区)183个5级以上地震序列资料的基础上，应用灰色预测和最小二乘拟合预测方法，对每一地震序列较强(显著)余震发震时间进行“硬性”检验预测。结果表明，2种预测方法对7级以上地震序列和6级地震序列的较强(显著)余震具有较好的预测效能，预测效能分别为76．2％和64．7％；而对5级地震序列预测效果则不甚明显。因此，灰色预测和最小二乘拟合预测方法主要着眼于对大(强)地震的较强(显著)余震预测，可望在地震现场大(强)震应急工作中发挥积极作用。  相似文献   

滇西地区中强地震的余震衰减     

钱晓东  秦嘉政  刘祖荫 《地震研究》2001,24(2):109-114

研究了滇西地区8次中强地震余震序列的衰减特征，得出了余震序列频度衰减符合修正的大森定律：（n）t=k/(t c)^p关系；余震衰减的快慢与大地热流值成正相关关系；强余震前中、小余震活动会出现平静或增强现象，即频度残差小于（平静）或大于（增强）其二倍方差，且持续一段时间，其后发生强余震的可能性较大。  相似文献   

断层旋性与地震危险性   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

郭增建  吴瑾冰 《地学前缘》2001,8(2):247-252

文中以“平行同旋走滑断层减震”的观点论证了兰州、北京、昆明这些位于强震活动区的大城市今后百年内不会发生 6 .5级以上地震。以“平行异旋走滑断层加震”的观点解释了西南棱形块体北边界和南边界在发生大震方面相互促进的现象。对于由构造分段求震级来说 ,在遇到不同的横交断层作为分段点时 ,还需考虑将来发震时始破裂点的位置以及发震断层的旋性 ,不然就会造成对震级估计不足 ,继而成为抗震建设的潜在不安全因素。在主震后为了预报余震的强度 ,可应用物理学中的科里奥利力理论 ,应用时必须知道断层类型和旋性。对于走滑断层来说 ,左旋余震弱 ,右旋余震强。例如 1997年藏北玛尼 7.5级地震 ,余震仅为 5 .3级 ,震级偏小 ,因主震为左旋的缘故 ;1976年唐山 7.8级地震 ,余震可达 7.1级 ,因主震是右旋。对于逆断层来说 ,上盘错动方向在当地子午面左侧者余震强度大 ,在右侧者余震强度弱。据此讨论了 1999年台湾南投 7.6级大震余震强度达 7.1级是因为主震为逆断层 ,上盘向西错动。  相似文献   

The　relationships　between　earthquakes　and　positions　of　the　sun　and　moon（Ⅱ）——Sometemporalcharacteristicsoftheaftershocksequencesofstrongearthquakes     

高伟  刘蒲雄  许绍燮  彭克银  吕晓健 《地震学报(英文版)》1996,(3)

Ｔｈｅｒｅｌａｔｉｏｎｓｈｉｐｓｂｅｔｗｅｎｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓａｎｄｐｏｓｉｔｉｏｎｓｏｆｔｈｅｓｕｎａｎｄｍｏｏｎ（Ⅱ）——Ｓｏｍｅｔｅｍｐｏｒａｌｃｈａｒａｃｔｅｒｉｓｔｉｃｓｏｆｔｈｅａｆｔｅｒｓｈｏｃｋｓｅｑｕｅｎｃｅｓｏｆｓｔｒｏｎｇｅ...  相似文献   

Researchonpredictionofthefolowingnotice┐ableshocksofearthquakesequences     

刘蒲雄  陈修启  吕晓健  韩丹 《地震学报(英文版)》1996,9(1):33-40

Ｒｅｓｅａｒｃｈｏｎｐｒｅｄｉｃｔｉｏｎｏｆｔｈｅｆｏｌｏｗｉｎｇｎｏｔｉｃｅ┐ａｂｌｅｓｈｏｃｋｓｏｆｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓｅｑｕｅｎｃｅｓＰＵ－ＸＩＯＮＧＬＩＵ（刘蒲雄），ＸＩＵ－ＱＩＣＨＥＮ（陈修启），ＸＩＡＯ－ＪＩＡＮＬＵ（吕晓健）ａｎｄＤ...  相似文献   

Considerations on the global seismic sequences: the second and the third largest aftershocks   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Theodoros M. Tsapanos 《Geophysical Journal International》1992,111(3):630-636

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邢台震后应力状态余震及频度的关系     

马兴国  陈建国 《山西地震》1993,(2):44-48

通过对邢台及邻区永年台应力的计算和对余震、余震频度关系的分析,表明邢台强烈地震发生后,震中区应力稍小于外区应力;应力的变化和余震频度、强余震关系较明显.  相似文献   

地震序列类型判据研究综述   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

赵荣国 《国际地震动态》1993,(10):6-8

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