冕宁县带状雹云特征的初步探讨     

卿清涛 《成都信息工程学院学报》1991,(Z1)

本文以凉山州沪沽雷达站的回波资料为基础,分析带状雹云出现的天气背景、雷达回波特征及生命史过程,并用一次典型个例加以详细说明。  相似文献   

中国沿海地区雨潮复合灾害联合分布及危险性研究     

许瀚卿  谭金凯  李梦雅  刘青  王军 《地理科学进展》2022,41(10):1859-1867

沿海地区极易受到极端降雨和高潮位引发的复合洪涝灾害影响。研究风暴增水和累积降雨同时发生的概率,设计雨潮联合分布函数,对提升沿海城市防洪除涝应对措施的有效性、减少城市复合洪涝灾害造成的损失具有重要意义。论文以1979—2014年中国沿海逐日最大风暴增水和邻近雨量站日累积降雨数据作为统计样本,采用Copula函数构建雨潮联合概率模型,并利用Kolmogorov-Smirnov检验、赤池信息准则、贝叶斯信息准则评价雨潮联合分布拟合优度,优选中国沿海雨潮联合概率分布函数模型。基于此模型,定量化设计中国沿海雨潮复合灾害情景。结果表明：在空间分布上,中国沿海雨潮复合灾害频次呈现明显的“两头多中间少”格局,其中,广东西部沿海、福建北部、浙江南部、山东及辽宁沿海频次相对较高;在50年一遇联合重现期下,北部湾、海南岛北部、浙江沿海、渤海湾部分沿海表现为极端降雨和较高的风暴增水,雨潮遭遇的复合灾害事件十分值得关注。研究结果在一定程度上揭示了中国沿海地区雨潮复合灾害的时空变化规律,并为复合灾害情景预测提供了定量化评估方案。  相似文献   

地震与磁暴主相最低点时刻的相关性     

李文静 《地震地磁观测与研究》2021,42(3):109-114

利用磁暴研究地震,特别是预测大地震的报道经常见诸公共媒体,引发诸多质疑。本研究以地震和磁暴(主相最低点)时刻的先后关系为研究对象,在不同时间窗、不同磁暴大小条件下,统计不同震级的地震与磁暴发生之间的时差及对应的地震比例,发现该比例随震前时间窗的增加或磁暴强度的减弱而不断增大,与起始震级基本无关。讨论磁暴对后续地震的"预兆"意义,发现对于中等强度以下的磁暴,在磁暴前后发生的地震比例基本相同,而在强磁暴及更高强度的磁暴后,地震发生概率显著增大,表明强磁暴对地震发生具有一定指示作用。  相似文献   

Automated facies identification by Direct Push-based sensing methods (CPT,HPT) and multivariate linear discriminant analysis to decipher geomorphological changes and storm surge impact on a medieval coastal landscape     

Hanna Hadler  Andreas Vött  Timo Willershäuser  Dennis Wilken  Ruth Blankenfeldt  Claus von Carnap-Bornheim  Kurt Emde  Peter Fischer  Ulf Ickerodt  Stefanie Klooß  Bente Majchczack  Lea Obrocki  Wolfgang Rabbel 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2021,46(15):3228-3251

In ad 1362, a major storm surge drowned wide areas of cultivated medieval marshland along the north-western coast of Germany and turned them into tidal flats. This study presents a new methodological approach for the reconstruction of changing coastal landscapes developed from a study site in the Wadden Sea of North Frisia. Initially, we deciphered long-term as well as event-related short-term geomorphological changes, using a geoscientific standard approach of vibracoring, analyses of sedimentary, geochemical and microfaunal palaeoenvironmental parameters and radiocarbon dating. In a next step, Direct Push (DP)-based Cone Penetration Testing (CPT) and the Hydraulic Profiling Tool (HPT) were applied at vibracore locations to obtain in situ high-resolution stratigraphic data. In a last step, multivariate linear discriminant analysis (LDA) was successfully applied to efficiently identify different sedimentary facies (e.g., fossil marsh or tidal flat deposits) from the CPT and HPT test dataset, to map the facies' lateral distribution, also in comparison to reflection seismic measurements and test their potential to interpolate the borehole and CPT/HPT data. The training dataset acquired for the key site from coring and DP sensing finally allows an automated facies classification of CPT/HPT data obtained elsewhere within the study area. The new methodological approach allowed a detailed reconstruction of the local coastal landscape development in the interplay of natural marsh formation, medieval land reclamation and storm surge-related land losses.  相似文献   

强沙尘暴发展与干飑线—黑风暴形成的一个机理分析   总被引：52，自引：13，他引：52  

胡隐樵  光田宇 《高原气象》1996,15(2):178-185,T003

该文分析了１９９３年５月５日黑风暴的发展过程和景观以及天气形势，研究了干飑线和强冷锋前干飑线发展同黑风暴爆发的关系。分析结果指出：由于强冷锋过境时冷锋前干飑线移至被强烈太阳辐射加热的地表以及条件不稳定大气层结结构，干飑线进一步发展至使黑风暴爆。黑风暴的沙墙是类似于飑线阵风锋面的干飑线阵风锋面的干飑线沙暴锋面。它是阵风锋面前沿反向上升气流卷起干燥地表尘沙面形成的。  相似文献   

REFINED RISK ASSESSMENT OF STORM SURGE DISASTER IN COASTAL PLAIN: A CASE STUDY OF PINGYANG COUNTY     

陈甫源  于普兵  吴修广  朱韫泽 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2019,25(3):304-311

As the risk of storm surge on coastal plains increases, the research on disaster risk assessment is fundamental for disaster management. Disaster risk assessment tends to develop towards the direction of refinement and it gradually plays a more important role. As regards the characteristics of storm tide disaster in coastal plain, the paper uses refined floodplain numerical model which combines typhoon, flood, astronomical tide and waves. The model also considers influencing factors of dike-breaking, micro-topography and buildings. Precise calculation is executed for the range and the submerged depth caused by floodplain flow in coastal plain. Based on 3S technology, disaster-bearing bodies are subdivided into the smallest unit of the ground object, and the vulnerability of these units is evaluated. Refined risk assessment of storm surge disaster for the coastal plain is obtained, and the detailed distribution of risk areas at different risk levels is achieved. These results can be widely applied in many fields, such as disaster prevention and mitigation, urban planning, industrial arrangement, disaster insurance and so on.  相似文献   

太阳风暴对全球导航卫星系统的影响分析     

宋炜琳  孙玉铬  甄卫民  刘钝 《全球定位系统》2011,36(5):6-11

太阳风暴将对北斗卫星导航系统的正常运行产生影响。对即将到来的第24个太阳活动高年期间,北斗系统可能受到的影响进行了分析。电离层延迟误差将使北斗系统用户定位精度进一步降低。电离层闪烁发生更为频繁,对北斗系统性能产生影响,闪烁严重时用户甚至失去定位功能。太阳风暴引起的电离层扰动,如电离层暴,也将对北斗系统性能产生影响。针对北斗系统建设,提出了应采用的应对措施。  相似文献   

2010年11月大气环流和天气分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

于超 《气象》2011,37(2):242-248

2010年11月大气环流主要特征是:北半球高纬度地区为单一极涡,极涡中心位于新地岛以北,强度比常年略偏强.中高纬环流呈三波型分布,其中欧洲大槽较常年同期偏强,东亚大槽强度接近常年同期.亚洲以正高度距平为主,只有西伯利亚地区呈现负距平,表明冷空气势力较常年同期偏弱.西北太平洋副热带高压面积接近常年同期,强度略偏弱,脊线位...  相似文献   

Analysis of the effects of different storm events on shoreline dynamics of an artificially embayed beach     

Renata Archetti  Claudia Romagnoli 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2011,36(11):1449-1463

A five‐year dataset of Argus‐derived mean intertidal positions has been analysed to characterize the shoreface variability in a beach protected by a system of groynes and a parallel low crested structure (Lido di Dante Ravenna, Italy). For the period 2004–2009, 84 intertidal beach bathymetries and shorelines at the zero sea level were used as indicators to assess beach changes in between a number of selected surveys and to determine characteristic patterns of the beach response to storm events from different directions. Variations in the shoreline at the zero sea levels have been quantified and analysed in conjunction with nearshore wave conditions and provenance linked to storm events. These fall into two categories: (1) storm events occurring during Bora (north‐eastern) wind conditions and (2) storm events occurring during Scirocco (south‐eastern) wind conditions. The results show that, apart from main beach advances of the whole protected beach due to nourishments periodically carried out, a marked variability is observed among the four sub‐cells into which the shoreface behaviour has been separately analysed. In particular, a dependence of beach rotation in the ‘artificially embayed’ area on the substantially bi‐directional wave climate has been shown: Bora and Scirocco storm events produce shoreline rotation in counterclockwise and clockwise directions, respectively, due to the occurrence of longshore currents in the opposite direction in the nearshore. An attempt was made to correlate the shoreface dynamics for the main rotation events (14 selected ones) to the wave attack intensity (as the total energy flux due to storm events). A relationship seems to occur (for each storm category) between the shoreline displacements estimated for each sub‐cell and the total energy flux computed for inter‐survey periods, supporting the occurrence of a link between the observed morphological changes and the hydrodynamic forcing associated with storm events in the five‐year monitoring period. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

河西走廊“2010.4.24”黑风成因分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

钱莉  杨永龙  王荣喆 《高原气象》2011,30(6):1653-1660

利用常规探测资料和地面加密观测资料,对2010年4月24日河西走廊出现的区域性特强沙尘暴和民勤出现的黑风天气过程进行了天气动力学诊断和中尺度分析。结果表明,地面冷锋所伴随的强风暴是产生黑风的主要原因。乌拉尔山高压脊强烈发展,迫使极地强冷空气向南爆发是这次黑风产生的大尺度触发系统;700hPa河西走廊变形场的强斜压性既有...  相似文献