海陆气候事件关联规则挖掘方法     

石岩  邓敏  刘启亮  杨文涛 《地球信息科学学报》2014,16(2):182-190

近年来,异常气候事件的频发对人类的生活环境和经济发展带来严重负影响。气象学家研究表明：海洋气候异常对陆地气候异常事件的发生具有重要的诱发作用,因此,对海陆气候间的内在关联机制进行深入挖掘具有重要研究价值。本文提出了一种关联规则挖掘方法,以探索单一海洋气候指数与陆地异常气候事件间存在的关联。首先,针对陆地气候要素,采用顾及空间邻近关系的层次聚类方法进行有效气候分区,通过对各层分区结果进行相关统计分析得到有效的各区域气候序列;然后,进行顾及多重约束进行时序关联规则挖掘,以探索海陆气候要素间的关联机制;最后,通过实际算例分析得到的各气候指数与我国陆地区域异常降水事件间的关联机制结果,与实际情况高度吻合。  相似文献   

利用克里金技术标定新疆及附近地区P/S震相幅值比及其在地震事件识别中的应用   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

潘常周  靳平  肖卫国 《地震学报》2007,29(6):625-634

针对中国的乌鲁木齐台（WMQ）和哈萨克斯坦的马坎奇台（MAK）,采用贝叶斯克里金技术建立了新疆及附近地区地震事件的震相幅值比的校正曲面,并分析了校正曲面与地震波传播路径的关系,以及校正曲面对于改善震相幅值比判据识别效果的有效性.分析结果表明,建立的校正曲面基本合理,结合传播路径差异和地震波传播规律,能够较好地解释校正曲面的起伏特征. 而且,在传播路径差异较大,使得震相幅值比经震中距校正后离散度仍然较高的情况下,利用校正曲面修正震相幅值比,可以进一步降低其离散度,从而改善判据的识别效果.经校正曲面修正后,对天然地震的误识率由16.3%下降为5.2％.   相似文献   

祁连山东南段加里东造山期构造变形年代的精确限定及其意义   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

樊光明  雷东宁 《地球科学》2007,32(1):39-44

祁连山东南段呈北西-南东向展布着加里东期中祁连造山带和拉脊山造山带, 其基底为前加里东变质岩系, 在该变质结晶基底岩系中发育着菱形网格状韧性剪切带, 共轭韧性剪切带面对缩短方向的夹角为104°~114°, 其最大主应力方位为SW210°左右.在中祁连地块金沙峡和化隆地块科却两处韧性剪切带中的糜棱岩化岩石, 获取变质矿物白云母40Ar-39Ar坪年龄分别为(405.1±2.4) Ma和(418.3±2.8) Ma.这一年代学结果不仅确定了加里东基底变质岩系中韧性剪切带是加里东造山作用过程中形成, 更重要的是通过对基底韧性剪切带中变质变形岩石的年代学研究, 精确地限定了祁连山东南段的早古生代火山盆地(或岛弧盆地)、拉脊山小洋盆关闭的构造年代.这为造山带构造演化过程中盆地关闭时间的确定开辟了新的途径.   相似文献   

2008年北京奥运会沈阳极端天气事件气候背景分析   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

卢娟  唐亚平  孙丽  李岚  孙龙彧 《气象与环境学报》2006,22(5):10-13

利用1951～2005年沈阳7月下旬至9月上旬的日最高气温、降水量、风和天气现象等观测资料,分别以旬为单位统计了高温、暴雨、大风、大雾和雷暴等对体育竞赛影响较大的极端天气气候事件发生的概率及分布特点,以期为2008年北京奥运会足球沈阳分赛场的足球小组赛提供气候背景服务信息。结果表明:7月下旬至9月上旬,沈阳易出现高温、暴雨、大风和雷暴等不利天气,对举办足球比赛等赛事将会产生不利影响;相对而言,8月中旬至9月上旬期间,这些不利天气发生的概率较小,对举办足球比赛等赛事较为有利。  相似文献   

The age,extent and geomorphological significance of the Sassafras basalt,south‐eastern New South Wales     

R. W. Young  Ian McDougall 《Australian Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,60(4):323-331

Basalt at Sassafras was erupted in the Middle Eocene. The K‐Ar ages average 45.3 ± 4.9 Ma on whole rock and 48.4 ± 1.9 Ma on plagioclase. The basalt is not limited to a plateau capping, but extends 150 m down into adjacent valleys. Comparison with nearby Eocene basalts shows that there was in excess of 250 m of local relief in the central Shoalhaven valley by the Early Tertiary. The basalts were extruded at high elevation, and denudation of the coastal margin of the upland was already well advanced. Post‐basaltic denudation has been very slow, and the Early Tertiary landscape is well preserved.  相似文献   

Tectonics of the Scandian orogeny and the Western Gneiss Region in southern Norway     

F. H. Koenemann 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1993,82(4):696-717

Two crust-forming events dominate the Precambrian history of the Western Gneiss Region (WGR) at about 1800–1600 Ma and 1550–1400 Ma. The influence of the Sveconorwegian orogeny (1200–900 Ma) is restricted to the region south of Moldefjord-Romsdalen. A series of anorthosites and related intrusives are present, possibly derived from the now-lost western margin of the Baltic craton that may have been emplaced in the WGR as an allochthonous unit before the Ordovician.The Caledonian development is split into two orogenic phases, the Finnmarkian (Cambrian — Early Ordovician) and the Scandian (Late Ordovician/Early Silurian — Devonian). The lower tectonic units west of the Trondheim Trough may be Finnmarkian nappes ; they were part of the lower plate during the Scandian continental collision. The Blåhö nappe is correlated with dismembered eclogite bodies along the coast. A regional change of nappe transport direction from 090 to 135 marks the initiation of an orogen-parallel sinistral shear component around 425 Ma. The change caused the development of a complex sinistral strike-slip system in the Trondheim region consisting of the Möre-Tröndelag Fault Zone and the Gränse contact. The latter cut the crust underneath the already emplaced Trondheim Nappe Complex, thus triggering the intrusion of the Fongen-Hyllingen igneous complex, and initiating subsidence of the Trondheim Trough, and was subsequently turned from a strike-slip zone into an extensional fault. Minor southward transport of the Trondheim Nappe Complex rejuvenated some thrusts between the Lower and the Middle Allochthon. A seismic reflector underneath the WGR is interpreted to be a blind thrust which subcrops into the Faltungsgraben. During Middle Devonian orogenic collapse, detachment faulting brought higher units, now eroded elsewhere, down to the present outcrop level, such as the Bergen and Dalsfjord nappe and the Old Red basins.  相似文献   

多层递推平稳模型     

汤兆焘  李法然  杨育强  黄玲琳  孙建明 《气象》1994,20(11):40-43

通过对小概率事件历史样本作多层递推迭代，逐次改变引入样本数求取权函数，建立一种平稳统计模式。模式信息容量大，收敛快，克服了常规统计模式的局限性，在灾害性天气客观预报模型应用中取得了明显效果。  相似文献   

Computer production of Kindices: review and comparison of methods     

M. Menvielle  N. Papitashvili  L. Hakkinen  C. Sucksdorff 《Geophysical Journal International》1995,123(3):866-886

  相似文献   

ENSO事件发展的时空特征   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

张秋庆  黄荣辉 《大气科学》1993,17(4):395-402

本文利用1951—1988年10°S—50°N太平洋SST资料与EOF分析方法对ENSO事件的发展过程与循环的时空特征进行了分析.分析结果表明EOF第一主分量时间系数的变化可以很好地表示SST距平变化与ENSO事件的发生.并且,第一主分量空间函数分布的变化揭示了一种ENSO事件增温是春季首先始于赤道东太平洋沿岸,随后向西传播到赤道中太平洋的增温过程;而第二主分量空间函数分布的变化揭示了另一种ENSO事件可增温首先始于赤道中太平洋,然后向东传播到赤道东太平洋的增温过程.分析结果还表明,ENSO事件的强度是强弱相间,其周期平均大约为4年左右. 本文还比较了80年代热带太平洋SST的变化及所发生的两次ENSO事件与其它年代所发生的ENSO事件的差别.  相似文献   

Assessment of episodic acidification in Sierra Nevada,California     

Nikolaos P. Nikolaidis  Vicki S. Nikolaidis  Jerald L. Schnoor 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》1991,53(4):330-345

Monte-Carlo simulations were used to assess the extent of shortterm alkalinity depressions occuring in Sierra Nevada lakes due to acidic deposition events. The Episodic Event Model (EEM) was used to simulate spring snowmelt events. Snow course data, precipitation data and lake acidification surveys were used to derive values for the EEM parameters. Spring snowmelt events were shown to have great impacts on the water quality of Sierran lakes. Lakes are likely to be most affected by the early-spring snowmelt event because the epilimnion depth is at a minimum, which indicates minimum dilution. Under annual average loading conditions, no Sierran lake has been reported as acidic although 29% of the lakes have alkalinities less than 40 µeq/L indicating a sensitivity to acidification. In simulations of early-spring snowmelt events, using present-day acidic loading conditions, it was estimated 79% ± 9% of the lakes would experience shortterm lake alkalinity depressions to levels less than 40 µeq/L. The results provided by the model simulations are valuable in establishing upper and lower limits on the extent of possible episodic acidification to lake-resources-at-risk. The most critical parameters controlling the magnitude of lake alkalinity depressions during snowmelt episodic events are a) the lake area to watershed area ratio — a measure of input loading, and b) the epilimnion volume — a measure of dilution and mixing.  相似文献