首都圈地区现今断层活动的数学模拟及地震危险性讨论     

李群芳  张云柱  高忠宁 《大地测量与地球动力学》1995,(1)

以首都圈地区现今活动断层上近２０年的位移测量资料为依据，用二维线弹性有限元对该区断层的活动特征进行了拟合，并结合有关资料讨论了该区的地震危险性。结果表明：１９７７－１９８６年间该区主压应力优势方位与华北较一致，约为Ｎ４５°－８０°Ｅ；１９８６－１９９０年其主压应力方向向北偏转，约为Ｎ５°－６０°Ｅ；１９９０年至现在其主压应力又向东偏转，角度大于第一阶段，约为Ｎ８０°－９５°Ｅ。该区的张家口－延庆一带近期有发生中强震的可能；丰镇－阳高－大同地区和凉城－古营盘地区应力较高，也应引起注意。  相似文献   

Application of stress release models to historical earthquakes from North China   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Xiao-Gu Zheng  David Vere-Jones 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1991,135(4):559-576

Univariate and multivariate stress release models are fitted to historical earthquake data from North China. It is shown that a better fit is obtained by treating separately the Eastern part of the region, including the North China Plain and Bohai Sea, and the Western part of the region, including the Ordos Plateau and its Eastern boundary. Further improvement is obtained by fitting the large events (M7.6) and smaller events in the Western region by different stress release models. The comparisons are made by computing the likelihoods of the fitted models and discounting the number of parameters used by Akaike's AIC criterion. The models are used to develop long-term risk scenarios for the East and West regions.  相似文献   

山西地震综合数据处理系统     

王玲英 《山西地震》1991,(1):4-24

《山西地震综合数据处理系统》是遵循《国家地震局数据库技术规范》,以PDP-11/23~+小型机与IBM/PC联机为硬件支撑,以网状型数据库为核心,含前期处理、库管理、数据检索、科学计算、分析会商5个子系统的较大型应用软件系统。具有对数据进行收集、录入、预处理、存储、管理、加工及应用等功能。整个系统通过总控菜单程序实现了异种机间上百个模块的调度,使查询-处理一体化。该系统把地震数据库、日常监测数据处理、专家地震预报系统有机地衔接于一体,可直接服务于地震科研和震情会商。该系统的建设是山西省重大科技攻关项目,也是国家地震局的合同制项目。  相似文献   

1966年邢台7.2级地震的构造背景和发震构造   总被引：28，自引：4，他引：24       下载免费PDF全文

徐杰  方仲景  杨理华 《地震地质》1988,10(4):51

本文根据石油地质勘探的最新资料和元-济人工地震地壳测深剖面相应地段重新解释的结果,分析了邢台7.2级地震的构造背景和发震断裂。研究结果表明,7.2级地震震中位于束鹿断陷盆地南部次凹的东缘,该次凹发育在由新河断裂等4条缓倾铲形正断裂分制围限地台盖层而成的“斛”状构造块体上,块体之下的地壳中存在两条倾向相反的高角度断裂;地震与断陷主断裂及其控制的断陷盆地并非是简单的对应关系,7.2级地震的发震断裂不是单一的缓倾铲形新河断裂或其下方的高角度的F_3断裂和深部的东断裂,而是它们的组合,且高角度断裂是发震断裂的主要部分  相似文献   

Quaternary fault segmentation and interaction in the epicentral area of the 1561 earthquake (Mw = 6.4), Vallo di Diano, southern Apennines, Italy     

V. Spina  E. Tondi  P. Galli  S. Mazzoli  G. Cello 《Tectonophysics》2008,453(1-4):233

The main structural characteristics of the Caggiano and Polla faults, exposed in the epicentral area of the 1561 earthquake (Mw = 6.4), southern Italy, have been investigated in detail to assess their spatial and temporal properties, and to evaluate their seismogenic potential. These right stepping normal faults show an overlap of about 7 km and an across strike separation of about 4 km. The geometric relationships between the Caggiano and Polla faults, but also the displacement distribution along each fault, demonstrate that they have been strongly interacting throughout the Pleistocene. Nevertheless, geological evidence of Holocene tectonic activity was mainly recognized along the Caggiano Fault (faulted late glacial deposits) and in the southernmost part of the Polla Fault (faulted deposits of probably Late Pleistocene age). This suggests that the Caggiano Fault can be considered as the most tectonically active fault in the Vallo di Diano Fault System. By calculating Coulomb stress changes, we have constrained modes of mechanical interactions between the two faults in a scenario compatible with the 1561 earthquake. This approach allows us to argue that both the Caggiano and the Polla Faults are probably linked at depth, and part of the same seismogenic structure which may be potentially responsible for composite ruptures with magnitude ≥ 6.5.  相似文献   

力马河镍矿Re-Os同位素研究   总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10  

陶琰 《地质学报》2008,82(9):1292-1304

四川力马河镍矿是峨眉山大火成岩省一个重要的岩浆硫化物矿床。本文通过对其主要岩、矿石类型Re、Os及其同位素组成的分析,综合探讨了成矿岩体原始岩浆性质、矿石硫化物成因、成矿机制及Re-Os同位素等时线年龄。结果表明,力马河镍矿不同类型岩矿石样品初始Os同位素组成是不均一的,富硫化物的网脉状矿石及其选纯硫化物Os同位素组成初值差异较小,其等时线年龄为265±35 Ma、与岩体锆石SHRIMP年龄263±3 Ma基本相当;硫化物含量较低的岩、矿石样品间初始Os同位素组成差异较大,其表观等时线年龄大于成矿年龄。分析认为,岩矿样品初始Os同位素组成的不均一是由含较高放射成因187Os丰度的硫化物熔体和含较低放射成因187Os丰度的硅酸盐熔体不同比例混合造成的。混合模型分析表明,硫化物含量超过30％的矿石样品初始187Os/188Os基本接近,硫化物含量低于30％的岩矿石样品初始187Os/188Os随硫化物含量上的不同差异很大,为岩浆硫化物矿床Re-Os等时线年龄可能出现多组年龄解的现象提供了一种可能的解释。成矿岩体中含放射成因187Os丰度最低的岩石样品γOs（t=260Ma）在5左右、Cu/Pd比值在7000左右,表明是基本没有受到地壳混染及硫化物熔离影响的原始岩浆结晶分异产物,估计原始岩浆Os含量在1×10－9左右,为苦橄质岩浆。矿石硫化物Re/Os比值显著高于任何赋矿橄榄岩,γOs（t=260Ma）高达110左右,综合分析揭示了力马河镍矿硫化物为二次熔离成因,模式分析认为,矿石硫化物是由原始岩浆经历R=2000左右的硫化物熔离后、其亏损岩浆再经R=200左右的硫化物熔离形成,与二次熔离相对应,成矿岩浆也经历了两次混染作用,分别为上、下地壳7％左右的混染。  相似文献   

四川汶川MS 8.0大地震地表破裂带的遥感影像解析   总被引：21，自引：1，他引：20  

付碧宏  时丕龙  张之武 《地质学报》2008,82(12):1679-1687

2008年5月12日发生于四川盆地西部龙门山断裂带的汶川MS 8.0级大地震造成巨大的人员伤亡和财产损失,并形成了空间上基本连续分布的地表破裂带（地震断层）。根据地表破裂带的解译标志及影像特征,我们充分利用震后中国科学院航空遥感飞机所获取的高分辨率航空遥感图像以及我国台湾福卫-2卫星遥感图像进行详细解译分析,并结合震后的多次野外科学考察与验证,初步查明了四川汶川MS 8.0级大地震所产生地表破裂带的空间分布特征。遥感解译分析表明汶川大地震产生的地表破裂带总计长约300 km,其几何学特征十分复杂,主要沿先存的NE走向活动断裂带呈不连续展布;变形特征以逆冲挤压为主兼具右旋走滑分量。按同震地表破裂带所在断裂带位置,可将其分为两条： 中央地表破裂带：沿映秀-北川断裂带分布,从西南开始呈北东向延伸至平武县水观乡石坎子北东一带,长约230 km,最大垂直位移量达6.0 m左右,最大右旋水平位移达5.8 m;山前地表破裂带：沿灌县-安县断裂带分布,由都江堰市向峨乡一带开始呈北东向延伸至安县雎水镇一带,长约70 km,以逆冲挤压为主,最大垂直位移量可达2.5 m。此外,遥感图像分析还表明上述地表破裂带与地质灾害分布在空间上具有十分密切的相关性,因此,挤压逆冲-走滑型地震断层的致灾效应研究是未来应该加以重视的研究课题。  相似文献   

汶川大地震（MS 8.0）同震变形作用及其与地质灾害的关系   总被引：12，自引：2，他引：10  

付小方  侯立玮  李海兵  王宗秀  邹付戈 《地质学报》2008,82(12):1733-1746

2008年5月12日发生于四川盆地西部龙门山断裂带的汶川大地震（MS 8.0）波及半个亚洲,震撼整个中国。本文通过地震后的实地调查,对发育在龙门山断裂带上的同震地表破裂带的分布、产状、继承性复活与变形特征,以及同震变形与地震地质灾害的关系等进行了初步总结,分析表明这次汶川大地震(MS 8.0)沿北川-映秀逆冲断裂和安县-灌县逆冲断裂同时发生地表破裂,前者产生以高角度逆冲兼右旋走滑为特征的地表破裂带长约275 km,后者产生以缓倾角逆冲作用为特征的地表破裂带长约80 km。汶川大地震的同震地表破裂带分布具有分段性特征,并与地表破坏程度的分带性有着一定的内在联系,详细研究表明,同震地表破裂带的产状直接影响地表破坏程度和地震地质灾害的强度,汶川大地震（MS 8.0）沿呈高角度陡倾的北川-映秀逆冲断裂发育的同震地表变形所产生的地表破坏程度和地震地质灾害的强度比沿缓倾角的安县-灌县逆冲断裂要强。从各种类型的地震断裂来看,具有垂直运动的逆冲型地震断裂所造成的地表破坏程度和地质灾害强度比具水平运动的走滑型地震断裂要强。因此,汶川大地震发生的破裂过程和同震地表变形与地震地质灾害的关系值得深入研究。  相似文献   

Spatial data for landslide susceptibility, hazard, and vulnerability assessment: An overview   总被引：30，自引：0，他引：30  

Cees J. van Westen  Enrique Castellanos  Sekhar L. Kuriakose 《Engineering Geology》2008,102(3-4):112

The aim of this paper is to discuss a number of issues related to the use of spatial information for landslide susceptibility, hazard, and vulnerability assessment. The paper centers around the types of spatial data needed for each of these components, and the methods for obtaining them. A number of concepts are illustrated using an extensive spatial data set for the city of Tegucigalpa in Honduras. The paper intends to supplement the information given in the “Guidelines for Landslide Susceptibility, Hazard and Risk Zoning for Land Use Planning” by the Joint ISSMGE, ISRM and IAEG Technical Committee on Landslides and Engineered Slopes (JTC-1). The last few decades have shown a very fast development in the application of digital tools such as Geographic Information Systems, Digital Image Processing, Digital Photogrammetry and Global Positioning Systems. Landslide inventory databases are becoming available to more countries and several are now also available through the internet. A comprehensive landslide inventory is a must in order to be able to quantify both landslide hazard and risk. With respect to the environmental factors used in landslide hazard assessment, there is a tendency to utilize those data layers that are easily obtainable from Digital Elevation Models and satellite imagery, whereas less emphasis is on those data layers that require detailed field investigations. A review is given of the trends in collecting spatial information on environmental factors with a focus on Digital Elevation Models, geology and soils, geomorphology, land use and elements at risk.  相似文献   

Seismic Hazard Analysis — Quo vadis?     

Jens-Uwe Klügel   《Earth》2008,88(1-2):1-32

The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.

Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making.  相似文献