Optimum Sample Size to Detect Perturbation Effects: The Importance of Statistical Power Analysis – A Critique     

Marco Ortiz 《Marine Ecology》2002,23(1):1-9

Abstract. The current article describes statistical power analysis as an efficient strategy for the estimation of the optimum sample size. The principle aim is constructively to criticise and enrich the results presented by Mouillot et al. (1999) , who estimate the optimum sample size for evaluating possible perturbations. The authors did not make any reference to statistical power analysis, even though their objective clearly went beyond a simple stock evaluation to assess management strategies in a particular marine ecosystem. Surprisingly, they proposed (a priori) an ANOVA design to test a hypothesis considering both space and temporal scales. However, the authors did not cover important topics related with power analysis and the precautionary principle, both used into environment impact assessment programmes for marine ecosystems. Based on their results and on statistical power analysis, it is demonstrated that the variability (dispersion statistics), a key factor they used to estimate the sample size, is less relevant than the magnitude of perturbation (effect size). Therefore, a greater effort must be devoted to estimate the effect size of a particular phenomenon rather than a desired variability.  相似文献   

How are large western hemisphere warm pools formed?   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

David B. Enfield  Sang-Ki Lee  Chunzai Wang 《Progress in Oceanography》2006,70(2-4):346

During the boreal summer the Western Hemisphere warm pool (WHWP) stretches from the eastern North Pacific to the tropical North Atlantic and is a key feature of the climate of the Americas and Africa. In the summers following nine El Niño events during 1950–2000, there have been five instances of extraordinarily large warm pools averaging about twice the climatological annual size. These large warm pools have induced a strengthened divergent circulation aloft and have been associated with rainfall anomalies throughout the western hemisphere tropics and subtropics and with more frequent hurricanes. However, following four other El Niño events large warm pools did not develop, such that the mere existence of El Niño during the boreal winter does not provide the basis for predicting an anomalously large warm pool the following summer.In this paper, we find consistency with the hypothesis that large warm pools result from an anomalous divergent circulation forced by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Pacific, the so-called atmospheric bridge. We also find significant explanations for why large warm pools do not always develop. If the El Niño event ends early in the eastern Pacific, the Pacific warm anomaly lacks the persistence needed to force the atmospheric bridge and the Atlantic portion of the warm pool remains normal. If SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific do not last much beyond February of the following year, then the eastern North Pacific portion of the warm pool remains normal. The overall strength of the Pacific El Niño does not appear to be a critical factor. We also find that when conditions favor a developing atmospheric bridge and the winter atmosphere over the North Atlantic conforms to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern (as in 1957–58 and 1968–69), the forcing is reinforced and the warm pool is stronger. On the other hand, if a positive NAO pattern develops the warm pool may remain normal even if other circumstances favor the atmospheric bridge, as in 1991–92. Finally, we could find little evidence that interactions internal to the tropical Atlantic are likely to mitigate for or against the formation of the largest warm pools, although they may affect smaller warm pool fluctuations or the warm pool persistence.  相似文献   

烟台市污水处理深海排放工程设计方案研究与选择   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

王文喜  李明基 《海岸工程》1997,16(1):30-35

沿海城市污水处理深海排放工程在我国起步较晚，烟台市污水处理深海排放工程我国目前规模最大的同类工程，且已进入施工阶段，本文详细阐述了该工程及水工设计方案，在我国城市污水２深海排放工程领域作了积极有益的探索。  相似文献   

Determination of cadmium(II), copper(II), manganese(II) and nickel(II) species in Antarctic seawater with complexing resins   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Raffaela Biesuz  Giancarla Alberti  Girolamo D'Agostino  Emanuele Magi  Maria Pesavento 《Marine Chemistry》2006,101(3-4):180-189

The strong species of cadmium(II), copper(II), manganese(II) and nickel(II) in an Antarctic seawater sample are investigated by a method based on the sorption of metal ions on complexing resins. The resins compete with the ligands present in the sample to combine with the metal ions. Two resins with different adsorbing strengths were used. Very stable metal complexes were investigated with the strong sorbent Chelex 100 and weaker species with the less strong resin, Amberlite CG-50. Strong species were detected for three of the considered metal ions, but not for Mn(II). Cu(II) is completely linked to species with a side reaction coefficient as high as log α_M(I) = 11.6 at pH = 7.3. The ligand concentration was found to be similar to that of the metal ion, and the conditional stability constant was around 10²⁰ M^− 1. In the considered sample, only a fraction of the metal ions Cd(II) and Ni(II) is bound to the strong ligands, with side reaction coefficients equal to log α_M(I) = 5.5 and 6.5 at pH = 7.3 for Cd(II) and Ni(II), respectively. These findings were confirmed by the test with the weaker sorbent Amberlite CG-50. It can be calculated from the sorption equilibria that neither Mn(II) nor Ni(II) is adsorbed on Amberlite CG-50 under the considered conditions and, in fact, only a negligible fraction of Mn(II) and Ni(II) was adsorbed. A noticeable fraction of Cd(II) was adsorbed on Amberlite CG-50, meaning that cadmium(II) is partially linked to weak ligands, possibly chloride, while no copper(II) was adsorbed on this resin, confirming that copper(II) is only combined in strong species. These results are similar, but not identical, to those obtained for other seawater samples examined in previous investigations.  相似文献   

Response-based method for determining the extreme behaviour of floating offshore platforms     

Said Mazaheri  Martine J. Downie 《Ocean Engineering》2005,32(3-4):363-393

The accurate prediction of extreme excursion and mooring force of floating offshore structures due to multi-variete environmental conditions which requires the joint probability analysis of environmental conditions for the worst case situation is still impractical as the processing of large amount of met-ocean data is required. On the other hand, the simplified multiple design criteria (e.g. the N-year wave with associated winds and currents) recommended by API known as traditional method does lead neither to the N-year platform response nor to the N-year mooring force. Therefore, in order to reduce the level of conservatism as well as uncertainties involved in the traditional method the response-based method can be used as a reliable alternative approach. In this paper this method is described. In order to perform the calculations faster using large databases of sea states, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) is designed and employed. In the paper the response-based method is applied to a 200,000 tdw FPSO and the results are discussed.  相似文献   

Nonparametric Estimates of the Sea State Bias for the Jason-1 Radar Altimeter   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Sylvie Labroue  Philippe Gaspar  Joel Dorandeu  Oz Zanif    F. Mertz  Patrick Vincent  Denis Choquet 《Marine Geodesy》2004,27(3):453-481

The Jason-1 sea state bias (SSB) is analyzed in depth from the first year of GDR products. Compared to previous missions, this work benefits from two aspects of the empirical determination of the SSB from the altimetric data themselves. First, from a methodological point of view, a nonparametric technique (NP) has been developed and largely tested on TOPEX/Poseidon 1, GFO and Envisat data. The NP estimator has proven to be a useful tool in the SSB estimation, and it is now mature enough to be used for a refined analysis. On the other hand, the SSB can be extracted from three different data sets (crossovers, collinear data, and residuals) with different characteristics. It is then possible to cross calibrate various estimations of the SSB models and to determine the most accurate one. A systematic comparison is made between these different estimates for the Jason-1 altimeter. The collinear and crossover data sets yield very similar estimates despite their difference of spatial and temporal distributions. These SSB models assure consistency with the TOPEX mission when comparing Jason-1 and TOPEX residuals during the tandem phase. Thanks to the present work, the impact of the short wavelengths filtering on the SSB estimation is evidenced. More generally, our understanding of potential errors affecting the sea surface height and their impact onto the SSB estimation is also improved.  相似文献   

不同生长期坛紫菜多糖中组分含量的变化   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

高洪峰  纪明候  曹文达 《海洋与湖沼》1994,25(5):505-509

于１９９０－１９９１年，运用＾１３Ｃ－ＮＭＲ和化学分析方法研究南方产和移植北方养殖的不同生长发育阶段坛紫菜多糖的组分变化，结果表明，随着藻体生长发育，坛紫菜琼胶中３，６－内醚－Ｌ－半乳糖和６－ＯＣＨ３－Ｄ－半乳糖的含量逐渐增加，而硫酸基的含量呈现先增加后减少的规律；北移坛紫菜琼胶中３，６－内醚－Ｌ－半乳糖的含量高于南方坛紫菜，而硫酸基和６－ＯＣＨ３－Ｄ－半乳糖的含量低于南方坛紫菜。  相似文献   

LAPP对中国对虾(Penaeus chinensis)生长、缺氧耐受力及免疫抵抗力的影响   总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11  

王伟庆  李爱杰 《海洋湖沼通报》1996,(1)

实验研究维生素C多聚磷酸酯（LAPP）添加在对虾饲料中，对中国对虾的生长、缺氧耐受力及免疫抵抗力的影响；实验进一步证明了中国对虾饲料中LAPP的最适添加量为400mg／100g饲料;本文还提出饲料中的LAPP能够提高中国对虾的缺氧耐受力，在溶氧超过3．1mg／kg海水的情况下，效果显著，在降低到2．3mg／kg海水时，作用减弱；用副溶血弧菌（Vibroparahaemolyticus）注射入虾体内，12小时内记录发现，饲料中不含LAPP的一组中国对虾，死亡率高于其它组，并且，LAPP含量最高的一组，死亡率明显低，死亡时间也出现较晚，这证明LAPP能够提高中国对虾的免疫抵抗力；本实验用注射金黄色葡萄球菌后细胞的吞噬百分率作指标，研究对虾细胞的吞噬作用，发现饲料中不含LAPP的对虾的吞噬百分率较低，随着饲料中LAPP浓度的提高，对虾血细胞的吞噬百分率逐渐升高，说明中国对虾细胞的吞噬作用逐步增强。  相似文献   

假晴东方鲀人工育苗研究     

王新成  马道远 《海洋科学》1996,20(6):49-54

假晴东方鲀人工育苗获得４１．８ｍｍ种苗３５１０００尾，每立方水体出 苗８６０尾。越冬成活率９１．６％，增重率６１．８％。利用室内水泥池及养虾土池 养成商品鱼，分别获得１９６９ ｇ／ｍ３和 ２０８ ｋｇ／亩的收成。  相似文献   

Application of the first internal transcribed spacer(ITS-1) of ribosomal DNA as a molecular marker to population analysis in farrer''s scallop Chlamys farreri     

YU Ziniu  WEI Xiaohu  KONG Xiaoyu  YU Shanshan 《海洋学报(英文版)》2007,26(1):93-100

Sequence variation of the first internal transcribed spacer of ribosomal DNA （ ITS - 1 ） was examined and its application to the study of genetic variation was explored in four populations of farter＇ s scallop Chlamys farreri. ITS - 1 fragments, with a length of about 300 bp,of 78 individuals collected from Dalian, Qingdao, Yantai in China and Korea respectively were amplified via PCR, cloned and sequenced. Intra-genomic variation was examined by sequencing several clones of single individuals. Alignment and polymorphism analysis detected 44 haplotypes and 50 polymorphic sites which consist of 30 substitutions and 20 indels, indicating a high level of polymorphisms. Sequence analysis also showed a very low level of intra-individual variation. All these features validated the feasibility of application of ITS - 1 fragment to population analysis. Polymorphism analysis showed that the Korea sample has the richest genetic variation, followed by Yantai and Qingdao samples. AMOVA （analysis of molecular variance） showed that the majority （96.26%） of genetic variation was distributed within populations and 3.74% resulted from among populations, but with P 〈 0.05 （ = 0.042）, indicating that the populations in this study have significant divergence. This output was basically concordant with the result arising from RAPD data and different from that from mitochondrial 16S rDNA sequence data. Discussion on this inconsistency was made accordingly.  相似文献