Volcanic risk ranking for Auckland, New Zealand. I: Methodology and hazard investigation     

Christina Magill  Russell Blong 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2005,67(4):331-339

Volcanic eruptions typically produce a number of hazards, and many regions are at risk from more than one volcano or volcanic field. So that detailed risk assessments can be carried out, it is necessary to rank potential volcanic hazards and events in terms of risk. As it is often difficult to make accurate predictions regarding the characteristics of future eruptions, a method for ranking hazards and events has been developed that does not rely on precise values. Risk is calculated individually for each hazard from each source as the product of likelihood, extent and effect, based on the parameters order of magnitude. So that multiple events and outcomes can be considered, risk is further multiplied by the relative probability of the event occurring (probability_e) and the relative importance of the outcome (importance_o). By adding the values obtained, total risk is calculated and a ranking can be carried out.This method was used to rank volcanic hazards and events that may impact the Auckland Region, New Zealand. Auckland is at risk from the Auckland volcanic field, Okataina volcanic centre, Taupo volcano, Tuhua volcano, Tongariro volcanic centre, and Mt. Taranaki volcano. Relative probabilities were determined for each event, with the highest given to Mt. Taranaki. Hazards considered were, for local events: tephra fall, scoria fall and ballistic impacts, lava flow, base surge and associated shock waves, tsunami, volcanic gases and acid rain, earthquakes and ground deformation, mudflows and mudfills, lightning and flooding; and for distal events: tephra fall, pyroclastic flows, poisonous gases and acid rain, mudflows and mudfills, climate variations and earthquakes. Hazards from each source were assigned values for likelihood, with the largest for tephra fall from all sources, earthquakes and ground deformation, lava flows, scoria fall and base surge for an Auckland eruption on land, and earthquakes and ground deformation from an Auckland eruption in the ocean. The largest values for extent were for tephra fall and climate variation from each of the distal centres. However, these parameters do not give a true indication of risk. In a companion paper the effect of each hazard is fully investigated and the risk ranking completed.  相似文献   

西藏色齐拉山地区立体气候特征初步分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

杜军  高荣  马鹏飞  刘远明  周刊社 《四川气象》2009,(1):14-18

利用西藏色齐拉山地区不同海拔高度的8个自动站和3个实测气象站1年的近地面观测资料,分析了该地区气温、地温、降水量、湿度和风速等气象要素的季节变化特征,探讨了东、西坡局地气候特征差异形成的原因。结果表明：色齐拉山地区1月为最冷月、7月为最暖月;月平均最高气温、最低气温与平均气温的季节变化一致。气温日较差大年较差小。年平均气温直减率东、西坡分别为0．54℃／100m和0．73℃／100m,西坡大于东坡。地气温差冬季西坡大于东坡,夏季东坡大于西坡。年、月平均地温直减率西坡仍大于东坡;东坡除夏季7、8月份外,地温直减率小于气温直减率;西坡除冬季（12月和1月）,地温直减率大于气温直减率。降水量东坡比西坡多,海拔2500m以上地区4～10月降水总量随着海拔高度的升高呈增加趋势,增加率为20．9mm／100m。空气相对湿度冬季低夏季高,年变化呈单峰型。东、西坡冬季风速较强夏季相对较弱,初春风速最大。东、西坡气候差异与海拔高度、坡向、下垫面性质有关。  相似文献   

兰州皋兰山黄土滑坡特征及灾度评估研究   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

殷跃平  张作辰  黎志恒  张树桥  于建都 《第四纪研究》2004,24(3):302-310

皋兰山滑坡是西北地区非常典型的黄土滑坡,由3个次级滑坡构成,形成条件可概括为:新构造作用促使皋兰山强烈隆起,形成高达200～300m以上陡峻的自然斜坡,平均坡度在33.7°,临空条件好;构成斜坡的基岩为泥岩,其上覆盖很厚的黄土层,泥岩表面风化、破碎严重,不透水,黄土垂直节理发育,有利于地表水的渗入,在黄土与泥岩的接触面构成抗剪强度低值带;在地下水对下部软弱层侵润作用下,其抗剪强度大大降低;地震是促使滑坡产生的突发因素;同时,由于斜坡前缘建房开挖边坡及公园建设加载和绿化灌溉等,导致坡体稳定性明显降低,出现失稳破坏。通过野外勘查和位移监测及稳定性计算表明:目前滑坡总体上处于稳定状态,局部滑坡体复活变形迹象渐趋明显,其中变形最严重的是位于斜坡中下部并紧邻市区的Ⅰ₃滑坡、Ⅰ₄滑坡和Ⅲ滑坡。文章还对滑坡潜在损失进行了初步评估,并提出了防治方案和建议。  相似文献   

气候变化背景下玉龙雪山漾弓江流域径流变化 及其影响因素分析     

方金鑫  蒲焘  史晓宜  王世金  牛贺文 《冰川冻土》2019,41(2):268-274

利用1979-2016年金沙江支流漾弓江流域木家桥水文站流量资料和丽江市气象资料,揭示了漾弓江流域径流变化特征及其主要影响因素。研究结果表明：漾弓江流域年径流量呈先增加后减小趋势。在年代际时间尺度, 20世纪80年代、90年代以及2000-2009年,径流量呈现增加趋势,而2010-2016年径流量呈减小趋势,与2000-2009年相比, 2010-2016年径流量减少了42%（减少径流量为0.88×10⁸ m³）。气温和降水量对径流的影响均较为显著,其中,降水量对径流的影响主要体现在雨季,而气温对径流的影响主要体现在消融期。气温升高导致冰川累积负物质平衡,进而引起冰雪融水变化,漾弓江流域2000-2009年径流变化的主要原因。  相似文献   

浅基岩埋深条件下多年冻土的瞬变电磁法探测研究     

杨贵前  谢昌卫  王武  杜二计  刘文惠  张钰鑫  倪杰 《冰川冻土》2019,41(5):1067-1077

瞬变电磁法（TEM）在青藏高原、东北等地区的多年冻土调查中取得了较好的应用效果,但局限于松散沉积层较厚情形,在基岩埋深较浅条件下探测多年冻土基本处于空白。兰州马衔山多年冻土具有分布范围小、温度高、基岩埋深浅的特点,是应用TEM探测浅基岩埋藏条件下多年冻土分布的理想地区。以马衔山多年冻土为主要研究对象,以季节冻土为对照研究了瞬变电磁响应特征,结合区域构造特征、地层露头、钻孔岩心、地温监测数据等信息,论证并探讨了TEM应用于浅基岩埋深时对多年冻土的探测效果。结果表明：马衔山多年冻土分布受构造断裂形成的低阻带控制,下部为负温岩层,实际分布面积为0.11 km²;TEM应用于浅基岩埋深的多年冻土勘探时更多的对地下岩层做出响应,可结合地质、地貌、水文、植被等信息,利用多年冻土的特点和电阻率的变化情况来判断多年冻土的分布范围;当基岩埋深特别浅时可以与探地雷达、钻孔等其他手段联合反演,从而准确地识别多年冻土与下伏基岩。  相似文献   

The evolution of zircon during low‐P partial melting of metapelitic rocks: theoretical predictions and a case study from Mt Stafford,central Australia     

WEI‐ Wang  E. Dunkley  G. L. Clarke  N. R. Daczko 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2014,32(8):791-808

Palaeoproterozoic metasedimentary migmatite reflects the highest temperature parts of a regional aureole at Mt Stafford, central Australia, comprising rocks that experienced 500–800 °C at ≈3 kbar. Whole‐rock major element concentrations are correlated with Zr content, psammitic compositions having nearly twice the Zr content of pelitic compositions. Zirconium is concentrated in mesosome compared with leucosome. Zircon is largely detrital, mostly lacking any overgrowth contemporary with migmatite formation. Comparatively small proportions of micro‐zircon (<10 μm) in sub‐solidus rocks are mostly hosted by quartz and plagioclase. Much higher proportions (three to five times) of micro‐zircon in migmatite are hosted by prograde K‐feldspar, cordierite and biotite. T–X and P–T NCKFMASHTZr pseudosections constructed using thermocalc model the distribution of Zr between solid and silicate liquid phases. Half of the detrital zircon (~100 ppm Zr) is predicted to be dissolved into silicate liquid at ≈800 °C and all dissolved by 850 °C, if all zircon is involved in the equilibration volume. Melt segregation at relatively low temperature is predicted to enrich the residuum in Zr, consistent with the observed distribution of Zr between mesosome and leucosome. The limited development of metamorphic zircon rims or overgrowths at Mt Stafford is explained by three concurrent processes: (i) Zr liberated during prograde metamorphism formed micro‐zircon, rather than following the prediction that Zr will partition into silicate liquid; (ii) some detrital zircon was probably armoured by other rock‐forming minerals, reducing Zr content in the effective bulk rock composition; and (iii) small proportions of melt loss during migmatization removed Zr that otherwise would have been available to form metamorphic rims.  相似文献   

观光旅游地客流时间分布特性的比较研究——以九寨沟、黄山及福建永安桃源洞鳞隐石林国家风景名胜区为例   总被引：22，自引：0，他引：22  

张捷  都金康  周寅康  张思彦  蒋兆刚 《地理科学》1999,(1)

旅游地与主要游客市场的空间结构（距离关系）在相当大程度上影响着游客年内分布、日变化等时间结构。旅游地旅游资源及旅游环境季节性特征也是游客年内分布的决定因子。  相似文献   

青藏高原环境气象研究进展   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6  

高登义  周立波 《地球物理学进展》1999,14(3):17-28

近十年来,青藏高原环境气象研究进展迅速,无论是观测研究还是理论研究方面均有新的发现。周秀骥和邹捍等先后发现夏季青藏高原上空的臭氧低值中心并提出了产生这种低值中心的可能原因。高登义等利用１９７５年以来对珠穆朗玛峰北坡水环境的监测资料,分析研究后发现,１９９０￣１９９１年爆发的中东战争油田燃烧曾污染了珠峰地区的水环境,带来珠峰北坡绒布河水十三种化学元素含量的剧烈增加,比其前后各年增加了５￣７倍。  相似文献   

Dating lava flows of tropical volcanoes by means of spatial modeling of vegetation recovery   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Long Li  Lien Bakelants  Carmen Solana  Frank Canters  Matthieu Kervyn 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(4):840-856

The age of past lava flows is crucial information for evaluating the hazards and risks posed by effusive volcanoes, but traditional dating methods are expensive and time‐consuming. This study proposes an alternative statistical dating method based on remote sensing observations of tropical volcanoes by exploiting the relationship between lava flow age and vegetation cover. First, the factors controlling vegetation density on lava flows, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), were investigated. These factors were then integrated into pixel‐based multi‐variable regression models of lava flow age to derive lava flow age maps. The method was tested at a pixel scale on three tropical African volcanoes with considerable recent effusive activity: Nyamuragira (Democratic Republic of Congo), Mt Cameroon (Cameroon) and Karthala (the Comoros). Due to different climatic and topographic conditions, the parameters of the spatial modeling are volcano‐specific. Validation suggests that the obtained statistical models are robust and can thus be applied for estimating the age of unmodified undated lava flow surfaces for these volcanoes. When the models are applied to fully vegetated lava flows, the results should be interpreted with caution due to the saturation of NDVI. In order to improve the accuracy of the models, when available, spatial data on temperature and precipitation should be included to directly represent climatic variation. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

新疆哈密白石泉铜镍矿区基性-超基性岩的形成时代及其地质意义   总被引：72，自引：22，他引：50  

吴华  李华芹  莫新华  陈富文  路远发  梅玉萍  邓岗 《地质学报》2005,79(4):498-502

白石泉铜镍矿床位于中天山地块北缘,沙泉子深大断裂南侧。矿体产于同源同期侵入的中基性—超基性岩体内,其含矿岩石为单辉橄榄岩和斜长橄辉岩。铜镍矿化无论从时间上和空间上都与岩体的侵位密切相关,矿床成因类型为岩浆熔离型铜镍硫化物矿床。锆石SHRIMP微区原位U-Pb年代学研究表明,石英闪长岩的年龄为285±10Ma、辉长闪长岩年龄为284±9Ma和辉长岩年龄为284±8Ma。三者在测定误差范围内十分一致,表明该含矿杂岩体的侵位及矿化作用均发生于晚石炭世末—早二叠世初,成岩成矿的动力学背景为造山期后伸展构造环境。  相似文献