An enhanced approach for modeling spatial accessibility for in vitro fertilization services in the rural Midwestern United States     

《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2015

Highly technological in vitro fertilization (IVF) treatment is available at relatively few medical centers in rural United States. This research derives a spatial accessibility surface for IVF centers in a rural Midwestern state through the application of computational methods that consider spatial and non-spatial parameters to discover potentially underserved areas in the state. These methods include a modified gravity model and techniques from spatial interaction modeling. The approach develops an enhanced accessibility index that incorporates three key sociodemographic variables describing patients seeking infertility healthcare in Iowa that have been identified based on a survey of IVF care practitioners in the state. Self-organizing map techniques are used to reveal cluster locations based on the degree of match between census sociodemographic data and the expert-identified variables. The spatial accessibility surface is combined with the sociodemographic clusters to define an enhanced measure of spatial accessibility. The results suggest that while the state's IVF centers are located in tracts characterized by high spatial accessibility, at least 19% of patients travel from census tracts classed as moderate to low accessibility. This result reveals some opportunities for service improvements for these locations. Interestingly, for tracts that are characterized as having a lower patient sociodemographic match, high spatial accessibility does not appear to be a factor that improves the likelihood of patient care, at least for the variables investigated as part of this research.  相似文献   

Historical Trends in Surface Air Temperature Estimated by Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Least Squares Linear Fitting          下载免费PDF全文

LIN Peng-Fei  FENG Xiao-Li  LIU Juan-Juan 《大气和海洋科学快报》2015,8(1)

Ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD) and least squares linear fitting(LSLF) are applied to estimate the historical trends of surface air temperature(SAT) from observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) simulations during the period 1901–2005. The magnitudes of trends estimated by the two approaches are comparable. The trend calculated by the EEMD approach is larger than that by the LSLF approach in most(23/27) of the models during 1901–2005. During the slow warming period, the EEMD trend is smaller than the LSLF trend. The rootmean-square errors(RMSEs) between the raw and reconstructed times series by the LSLF approach are larger than those by the EEMD trend component and multi-decadal variability components during 1901–2005 in most of the models and observations. During 1901–70(or 1971–2005), the RMSEs between the raw and reconstructed times series by LSLF are larger than those by the EEMD trend component. In this sense, the EEMD trend is a better choice to obtain the climate trends in observations and CMIP5 models, especially for short time periods. This is because the trend estimated by LSLF cannot capture the internal variability and the cooling in some years. The estimated global warming rates(trend) are consistently larger(smaller) than those from observations in 11 of 27 CMIP5 models during 1901–2005 in the slow and rapid warming periods. This implies these 11 models have consistent responses to greenhouse gases for any period.  相似文献   

基于CMIP5模拟预估21世纪珠江三角洲地区由于海平面上升而导致的淹没区面积     

夏江江  严中伟  周文  FONG Soi Kun  LEONG Ka Cheng  TANG Iu Man  CHANG S W  LEONG W K  靳少非 《海洋学报(英文版)》2015,34(9):78-84

Projections of potential submerged area due to sea level rise are helpful for improving understanding of the influence of ongoing global warming on coastal areas. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method is used to adaptively decompose the sea level time series in order to extract the secular trend component. Then the linear relationship between the global mean sea level(GMSL) change and the Zhujiang(Pearl) River Delta(PRD)sea level change is calculated: an increase of 1.0 m in the GMSL corresponds to a 1.3 m(uncertainty interval from1.25 to 1.46 m) increase in the PRD. Based on this relationship and the GMSL rise projected by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios(representative concentration pathways, or RCPs, from low to high emission scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5), the PRD sea level is calculated and projected for the period 2006–2100. By around the year 2050, the PRD sea level will rise 0.29(0.21 to 0.40) m under RCP2.6, 0.31(0.22 to 0.42) m under RCP4.5, and 0.34(0.25 to 0.46) m under RCP8.5, respectively.By 2100, it will rise 0.59(0.36 to 0.88) m, 0.71(0.47 to 1.02) m, and 1.0(0.68 to 1.41) m, respectively. In addition,considering the extreme value of relative sea level due to land subsidence(i.e., 0.20 m) and that obtained from intermonthly variability(i.e., 0.33 m), the PRD sea level will rise 1.94 m by the year 2100 under the RCP8.5scenario with the upper uncertainty level(i.e., 1.41 m). Accordingly, the potential submerged area is 8.57×103 km2 for the PRD, about 1.3 times its present area.  相似文献   

Two-step procedures for hybrid geoid modelling   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

L. E. Sjöberg  W. E. Featherstone 《Journal of Geodesy》2004,78(1-2):66-75

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Extended solution for waves travelling over a rapidly changing porous bottom   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

R. Silva  P. SallesG. Govaere 《Ocean Engineering》2003,30(4):437-452

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基于改进的遥感生态指数（MRSEI）的青海省都兰县生态环境质量评价     

贾浩巍  颜长珍  邢学刚  谢家丽  冯坤 《中国沙漠》2021,41(2):181-190

以1995、2005、2015年Landsat TM/ETM＋/OLI影像为主要数据源,借助改进的遥感生态指数（MRSEI）,对青海省都兰县近20年的生态环境状况进行监测和定量评价。结果表明：（1）1995—2015年,都兰县MRSEI均值从0.300增大到0.381,呈逐年递增趋势。结合MRSEI差值分析,1995—2015年生态等级增加面积所占比例（41.76%）大于生态等级降低所占比例（9.14%）,即环境改善的程度大于环境恶化的程度。（2）都兰县的生态环境受气候变化和人为活动的共同作用,MRSEI等级增加的区域主要在都兰县东部,得益于政府生态保护政策和利于植被生长的暖湿气候,等级降低的区域主要集中在都兰县西北部和西南部,主要原因是对盐湖资源过度开发和超载放牧。（3）在未来经济发展中应遵循自然规律,在切实保护现有林草植被的基础上,进行自然资源合理开发和利用。  相似文献   

Development of the second-order derivatives of the Earth’s potential in the local north-oriented reference frame in orthogonal series of modified spherical harmonics   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

M. S. Petrovskaya  A. N. Vershkov 《Journal of Geodesy》2008,82(12):929-944

The second-order derivatives of the Earth’s potential in the local north-oriented reference frame are expanded in series of modified spherical harmonics. Linear relations are derived between the spectral coefficients of these series and the spectrum of the geopotential. On the basis of these relations, recurrence procedures are developed for evaluating the geopotential coefficients from the spectrum of each derivative and, inversely, for simulating the latter from a known geopotential model. Very simple structure of the derived expressions for the derivatives is convenient for estimating the geopotential coefficients by the least-squares procedure, at a certain step of processing satellite gradiometry data. Due to the orthogonality of the new series, the quadrature formula approach can be also applied, which allows avoidance of aliasing errors caused by the series truncation. The spectral coefficients of the derivatives are evaluated on the basis of the derived relations from the geopotential models EGM96 and EIGEN-CG01C at a mean orbital sphere of the GOCE satellite. Various characteristics of the spectra are studied corresponding to the EGM96 model. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.  相似文献   

近百年中国两次年代际气候变暖中的冷、暖平流背景     

童宣  严中伟  李珍  曹丽娟  江志红 《气象学报》2018,76(4):554-565

近百年中国气候经历了两次明显的年代际变暖,分别发生在20世纪40年代之前和70年代之后。由大气环流变化引起的冷、暖平流异常可为理解两次变暖提供参考。首先基于最新研制的近百年32站气温观测和集合经验模分解（Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition,EEMD）方法揭示两次变暖过程中国的冷、暖分布格局,进而利用全球格点气温和海平面气压资料计算了同期地转风导致的温度平流。结果表明,20世纪40年代中国华北北部至东北大部分地区和华南沿海局部地区偏冷而中东部至西南内陆大部分地区偏暖的年代际气候异常,站点冷、暖异常与大尺度温度平流的空间关联系数达0.85;而对于近20年中国气候变暖而言,这一关联系数仅0.49。研究结果从一个新颖的角度说明:早期变暖过程中气候系统内部过程如大气环流异常的作用较大,而近几十年气候变暖则更多地受迫于外强迫。   相似文献   

大气粒子散射相函数的参数化方案比较及其改进     

刘琨  张峰  吴琨  周秀骥  张华  刘仁强 《气象学报》2016,74(5):784-795

大气粒子散射相函数的参数化是大气辐射传输参数化的重要组成部分。文中全面比较了大气粒子的HenyeyGreenstein(HG)方案和双Henyey-Greenstein(DHG)方案,并在四流球谐函数展开累加法中,应用这两种相函数参数化方案计算气溶胶、云、霾粒子的反射率、透射率或吸收率。该研究结果表明:HG方案无法表现相函数的后向峰值,因而其计算的大气粒子反射率和透射率精度较差;DHG方案能较好地表征相函数的整体特征,但是该方案计算的相函数易出现后向异常峰值或为负值,并导致计算得到的气溶胶、云、霾粒子的反射率和透射率精度甚至会低于HG方案。对DHG方案进行进一步研究,提出了改进的DHG方案(MDHG)。MDHG方案计算结果稳定,并能很好表征相函数的前向和后向峰值的特征,其计算的大气粒子的反射率和透射率精度也较高。因此,MDHG方案是一种理想的相函数参数化方案。  相似文献   

近54年渭干河流域径流变化特征及影响因素分析          下载免费PDF全文

秦鹏  赵成义  盛钰  董义阳 《水文》2016,36(2):85-91

基于1960~2013年渭干河流域逐月径流量观测资料及逐日气象数据,采用Kruskal-Wallis阶段转换检验、R/S分析、集合模态分解分析(EEMD)等方法研究了近54年渭干河流域径流量的年内、年际变化特征及其影响因素。结果表明:(1)近54年渭干河流域Cv、Cr较大,径流量年内分配不均衡,径流量夏季秋季春季冬季,未来这种趋势会更加明显。(2)径流年际变化特征可分为三个阶段,1960~1976年的枯水期、1976~1993年的平水期和1994~2013的丰水期。(3)径流量总体呈现增加趋势,其中夏季增长最为显著,其次是春秋季,冬季径流量有轻微减少。未来近期内,渭干河径流量还会继续保持增加。(4)流域气温和降水量亦呈增加趋势,突变点在1970s末和1990s初,与径流变化特征吻合,两者呈正相关关系。其中夏季径流量变化主要受降水影响,秋冬季径流量变化主要受气温影响。  相似文献