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11.
Record-breaking extreme temperatures have been measured in the last two decades all over Turkey, with recent studies detecting positive trends in extreme temperature time series. In this study, nonstationary extreme value analysis was performed on extreme temperature time series obtained from fifty stations scattered over the seven geographical regions of Turkey. Basic characterization of the data set was defined through outlier detection, homogeneity, trend detection, and stationarity tests. Trend-including non-stationary extreme temperature time series were analyzed with non-stationary Generalized Extreme Value distribution. Three main physical drivers were considered as the leading causes that trigger the observed trends in extreme temperatures over Turkey: time, teleconnection patterns of the Arctic Oscillations, and those of the North Atlantic Oscillations. The results showed that most of the absolute annual minimum and maximum temperature time series are inhomogeneous while the possible breakpoints date back to the1970s and 1990s, respectively. More than half of the absolute annual maximum time series (26/50 and many of the absolute annual minimum time series (21/50) showed a positive trend. No negative trend was detected in the extreme temperature time series. Based on the frequency analysis of the 21 annual maximum time series, the non-stationary estimations of 50-year return levels were detected to be higher than in the stationary model (between 0.44 °C and 3.73 °C). The return levels in 15 of the 20 minimum temperature time series increased from 0.11 °C up to 12.28 °C. Elevation increases the nonstationarity impact on absolute minimum temperatures and decreases it on absolute maximums. The findings in this study indicate that the consideration of non-stationarity in extreme temperature time series is a necessity during return level estimations over the study area. 相似文献
12.
Seismic random processes are characterized by high non-stationarity and, in most cases, by a marked variability of frequency content. The hypothesis modeling seismic signal as a simple product of a stationary signal and a deterministic modulation function, consequently, is hardly ever applicable. Several mathematical models aimed at expressing the recorded process by means of a system of stationary random processes and deterministic amplitude and frequency modulations are proposed. Models oriented into the frequency domain with subsequent response analysis based on integral spectral resolution and models oriented into the time domain based on the multicomponent resolution are investigated. The resolution into individual components (non-stationary signals) is carried out by three methods. The resolution into intrinsic mode functions seems to possess the best characteristics and yields results almost not differing from the results obtained by stochastic simulation. An example of the seismic response of an existing bridge obtained by two older models and three variants of multicomponent resolution is given. 相似文献
13.
An extended Kalman filter algorithm with local iteration is presented for the identification of non-linear and non-stationary soil properties. Borehole-array strong motions were recorded at a liquefied site during the 1995 Hyogoken-nanbu earthquake. In this study, a modified Kalman filtering method in which the extended Kalman filter is iteratively used at every local time-step to track rapid parameter changes is proposed. The method is then applied to the instrumented soil layer, which is modeled by an equivalent linear model. An identification of non-linear and non-stationary soil properties was conducted successfully; and non-linear restoring force–displacement relationships including progression with time were obtained. 相似文献
14.
在地震勘探资料处理中,子波的零相位化有助于提高地震资料的分辨率、改善叠加剖面的质量.常规的相位校正方法是利用测井合成记录对井旁地震记录进行相位估计,然后对整条剖面进行常相位校正,该方法没有考虑地震子波相位的非稳态性（相位随时间和空间变化）.虽然通过局部相似度方法利用最大方差模准则或包络最大相似度准则可以估计出随时间和空间变化的相位属性,但是由于零相位判别准则本身具有一定的局限性,因此精度有限.针对这一问题,本文在局部地震属性和局部平面波模型下,提出了一种井约束的非稳态相位校正方法,该方法不仅考虑了子波相位的非稳态性,而且充分利用了测井合成地震记录进行相位校正精度高的优点.理论模型和实际资料处理表明,本文方法可以有效实现信号的零相位化,有利于改善叠加效果,提高资料的分辨率. 相似文献
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外强迫随时间的变化对于非平稳系统的影响十分重要,如何从该系统中重构或提取外强迫信息则成为研究其中动力学特征的关键所在。本文基于慢特征分析方法（Slow Feature Analysis,SFA）以连续系统（改变的Lorenz系统）为参考模型,分别讨论在周期型强迫、减弱的周期型强迫、指数衰减型强迫、伴随指数衰减的周期型强迫等条件下,SFA方法对模型中不同强迫信号的提取能力。结果显示,SFA方法能够提取作用于连续系统中的外强迫信息,其提取效果与外强迫的强度、噪声以及嵌入维数m有关:对于越弱的外强迫或者存在越强的噪声干扰,提取效果越差,提取信号中将出现虚假的高频波动;嵌入维数m的增大能在一定程度上提高外强迫信号的提取效果。试验还表明,作用在单一变量上的外强迫会将其驱动信息嵌入于系统中,因此,可以通过SFA分析方法从其他变量中提取其外强迫信号。 相似文献
16.
Luis Manuel de Vries Jesus Carrera Oriol Falivene Oscar Gratacós Luit Jan Slooten 《Mathematical Geosciences》2009,41(1):29-42
Simulation of flow and solute transport through aquifers or oil reservoirs requires a precise representation of subsurface
heterogeneity that can be achieved by stochastic simulation approaches. Traditional geostatistical methods based on variograms,
such as truncated Gaussian simulation or sequential indicator simulation, may fail to generate the complex, curvilinear, continuous
and interconnected facies distributions that are often encountered in real geological media, due to their reliance on two-point
statistics. Multiple Point Geostatistics (MPG) overcomes this constraint by using more complex point configurations whose
statistics are retrieved from training images. Obtaining representative statistics requires stationary training images, but
geological understanding often suggests a priori facies variability patterns. This research aims at extending MPG to non-stationary
facies distributions. The proposed method subdivides the training images into different areas. The statistics for each area
are stored in separate frequency search trees. Several training images are used to ensure that the obtained statistics are
representative. The facies probability distribution for each cell during simulation is calculated by weighting the probabilities
from the frequency trees. The method is tested on two different object-based training image sets. Results show that non-stationary
training images can be used to generate suitable non-stationary facies distributions. 相似文献
17.
Q. Gao J.H. Lin W.X. Zhong W.P. Howson F.W. Williams 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2008,28(4):305-320
This paper presents a highly accurate method based on the precise integration method (PIM) and on the pseudo excitation method (PEM). The method computes the propagation behaviour of partially coherent non-stationary random waves in a viscoelastic, transversely isotropic solid, which consists of a multi-layered soil resting on a homogeneous semi-infinite space. The excitation source is a local rupture between two layers, which causes a partially coherent non-stationary random field. The analysis of non-stationary random wave propagation is transformed into that for deterministic waves by using PEM. The resulting governing equations in the frequency-wavenumber domain are linear ordinary differential equations, which are solved very precisely by using PIM. The evolutionary power spectral densities of the ground level responses are investigated and some typical earthquake phenomena are explained. 相似文献
18.
The Effect of Chessboard Variability of the Surface Fluxes on the Aggregated Turbulence Fields in a Convective Atmospheric Surface Layer 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
To what degree the variability of surface features can be identified in the turbulent signals observed in the atmospheric boundary layer is still an unresolved problem. This was investigated by conducting an analytical experiment for a one-dimensional 'chessboard'-type surface-flux distribution on the basis of local free convection scaling. The results showed that, due to their nonlinear dependency on the surface fluxes, the dimensionless gradients of the mean quantities and the dimensionless standard deviations are altered by the surface-flux variability. Furthermore, passive scalars, such as humidity, are considerably more sensitive to surface variability than the main active scalar, temperature. However, the response of the gradients of the mean quantities is fairly negligible in the range of variability studied herein as compared to that of the standard deviations, which were found to be more sensitive to the surface-flux variability. In addition, the phase difference between the active and the passive scalar flux distribution strongly affects the passive scalar turbulence. This dissimilarity between passive and active scalars, or between passive scalars when their source distributions are different, brings into question the use of variance methods for the measurement of a scalar flux, such as evaporation, over variable surfaces. The classical Bowen ratio method, which depends on the validity of the Reynolds analogy for the vertical gradients of the mean quantities, was shown to be relatively more robust. However, under conditions of strong surface variability, it can also be expected to fail. 相似文献
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目前对多次波的有效利用仅围绕多次波成像技术展开,通过成像多次波试图获取更丰富的地下构造信息.不同于该思路,本文另辟蹊径,从利用多次波提高地震数据分辨率角度出发,对多次波的有效利用进行了深入挖掘.首先基于聚焦变换思想在聚焦域内实现多次波的降阶,通过理论推导得出聚焦域内多次波表现为原始数据的多维子波反褶积这一重要结论,从理论上证明了本文方法提高地震数据分辨率的可行性;然后采用引入整形正则化的非稳态回归自适应匹配滤波方法将聚焦域内由多次波构建的高分辨率数据分离出来,实现原始数据的高分辨率转换.与常规反褶积模型不同,该方法基于波动理论推导得出,可以适用于任意复杂情况;每一道输出结果中所有炮记录都参与了运算,从空间上加以约束,在提高纵向分辨率的同时可以改善数据的横向分辨率.最后通过模型试算和实际资料处理对本文方法的有效性、适应性和实用性进行了验证. 相似文献