RCP4.5情景下中国人口对高温暴露度预估研究     

张蕾  黄大鹏  杨冰韵 《地理研究》2016,35(12):2238-2248

基于CMIP5的逐日最高温度模拟资料、GGI情景数据库逐年代人口数据,在RCP4.5情景下,以对应栅格高温日数与人口数量的乘积作为人口对高温的暴露度指标,通过多模式集合平均预估未来中国人口对不同强度高温的暴露度变化。结果表明：相比于基准时段（1981-2010年）,中国人口对高温和强危害性高温的暴露度从2021-2040年开始明显增加,至2081-2100年暴露度分别增加了5.7倍和17.5倍;除了中国西部部分地区外,全国大部地区人群均受高温的影响,在21世纪中后期中东部大部人口对高温的暴露度超过10.0×10⁶人?d;相比基准时段,随着年代的增长,中国人口对强危害性高温的暴露度在范围和强度上均有明显增加;2081-2100年,人口对高温和强危害性高温的暴露度增幅减缓。从气象地理区域上看,未来各时段人口对高温、强危害性高温的暴露度均有一定程度增加,但增加明显的区域主要集中在华北、黄淮、江南和江淮地区,华南地区对强危害性高温的暴露度增幅较小。高温日数变化对全国人口对高温暴露度的变化所产生的作用最明显。多模式集合的预估结果可以为防控未来高温风险提供重要的参考价值。  相似文献   

用1：5万磁异常特征圈定贵州水城-艾家坪地区成矿靶区     

王亮  张应文  杨建辉 《贵州地质》2009,26(3):209-214,217

对1：5万高精度磁异常原始资料数据处理,进行化极、延拓计算7个不同上延高度异常,分析对比所有资料,结合地物化资料,对磁异常平面进行特征分区。又根据已知的白马洞（区内）-杉树林（区外）铅锌矿床成矿带及区内异处的铅锌、铜、锰等矿床（点）的成矿规律和分布特点,圈定了8个异常成矿靶区,19个大型的浅层局部负磁异常,均为有一定找矿意义的磁异常,并推测它们可能为岩体与矿致磁异常（铅锌、铜、锰、铁）等综合引起,在岩体（浅表隐伏的花岗岩珠或岩枝）与围岩接触带、层间破碎带上,应是赋矿的有利部位。  相似文献   

The potential of historic rock avalanches and man-made structures as chlorine-36 production rate calibration sites     

《Quaternary Geochronology》2013

Samples from three medieval rock avalanches from the French (Le Claps, Mont Granier) and Austrian Alps (Dobratsch) and a man-made structure, i.e. the Stephansdom in Vienna, have been analysed for in-situ produced ³⁶Cl by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). All four sampling sites of independently known exposure duration turned out to be not appropriate as calibration sites for the determination of the ³⁶Cl-production rate from Ca. Indeed, the determination of short exposure ages for dating rock avalanches and man-made structures by ³⁶Cl is hindered dramatically by inheritance, especially for samples characterized by high ^natCl-concentrations. Generally, there are hints that the theoretical calculation of ³⁶Cl-production from epithermal and thermal neutron-capture on ³⁵Cl is highly underestimated in all existing models, thus, asking for particular precaution if working on high-Cl samples for any project. Hence, this work evidences that potential high inheritance, even for samples reasonably shielded before exhumation, has to be considered especially when dealing with recently exposed surfaces such as glacially polished rocks, alluvial terraces, fault scarps etc.  相似文献   

升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下中亚地区干旱耕地暴露度研究     

王安乾  陶辉  方泽华 《气候变化研究进展》2022,18(6):695-706

基于CMIP5中的5个全球气候模式统计降尺度的降水、最高和最低气温等数据,利用标准降水蒸发指数（SPEI）和强度-面积-持续时间（IAD）方法识别全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下中亚地区干旱事件,结合30 m分辨率土地利用数据,探讨中亚干旱事件的演变及耕地暴露度变化。结果表明：相比基准期（1986—2005年),中亚地区的降水和潜在蒸发量均有所增加;全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下,中亚地区的干旱事件频次、强度和面积均将增加,其中重旱和极旱事件的频次和影响面积大幅上升,而中旱事件的频次和影响面积持续下降;1986—2005年中亚地区年均干旱耕地暴露度约11.5万km2,全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下,干旱耕地暴露度将分别上升到17.9万km2和28.6万km2,且暴露在极旱下的耕地面积增加最明显。全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下,增加的干旱事件将会严重威胁当地农业生产和粮食安全,中亚地区需对干旱事件采取长期的减缓与适应措施。  相似文献   

室内定轨移动摄影测量控制系统设计与实现     

李国玉  石波  吴玮  李峰  高乐 《测绘科学》2011,36(3):197-198,206

在室内定轨移动摄影测量系统中,自动化、智能化的控制系统是其稳定可靠工作的重要保障.该摄影测量系统需要对轨道上的移动平台和摄影测量机构进行远程操作,为了实现稳定、可靠的控制,设计研发以单片机为控制核心的遥控系统;摄影测量机构是由五台非量测数码相机拼接而成,为了实现五台相机同步摄影,设计完成相机同步曝光装置.实验表明该系统...  相似文献   

西南天山东柯坪推覆系古地震初步研究   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

李安  冉勇康  徐良鑫  刘华国  李彦宝 《地震地质》2011,(4):752-764

西南天山柯坪推覆系发育多排逆断裂-褶皱带,各排逆断裂-褶皱带的变形速率并不一致,古地震发生规律也可能具有不同特点.自汶川地震造成龙门山中央和前山两条断裂同时活动之后,对于如何判断多条逆断裂级联破裂的逆断裂古地震事件,是一个值得讨论的问题.文中通过对东柯坪塔格和萨尔干塔格两排逆断裂-褶皱带山前多期地貌面(冲洪积扇面)上发...  相似文献   

Glacial advances constrained by Be exposure dating of bedrock landslides, Kyrgyz Tien Shan     

Katia Sanhueza-Pino  Oliver Korup  Ralf Hetzel  Henry Munack  Johannes T. Weidinger  Stuart Dunning  Cholponbek Ormukov  Peter W. Kubik 《Quaternary Research》2011,76(3):295-304

Numerous large landslide deposits occur in the Tien Shan, a tectonically active intraplate orogen in Central Asia. Yet their significance in Quaternary landscape evolution and natural hazard assessment remains unresolved due to the lack of "absolute" age constraints. Here we present the first ¹⁰Be exposure ages for three prominent (> 10⁷ m³) bedrock landslides that blocked major rivers and formed lakes, two of which subsequently breached, in the northern Kyrgyz Tien Shan. Three ¹⁰Be ages reveal that one landslide in the Alamyedin River occurred at 11–15 ka, which is consistent with two ¹⁴C ages of gastropod shells from reworked loess capping the landslide. One large landslide in Aksu River is among the oldest documented in semi-arid continental interiors, with a ¹⁰Be age of 63–67 ka. The Ukok River landslide deposit(s) yielded variable ¹⁰Be ages, which may result from multiple landslides, and inheritance of ¹⁰Be. Two ¹⁰Be ages of 8.2 and 5.9 ka suggest that one major landslide occurred in the early to mid-Holocene, followed by at least one other event between 1.5 and 0.4 ka. Judging from the regional glacial chronology, all three landslides have occurred between major regional glacial advances. Whereas Alamyedin and Ukok can be considered as postglacial in this context, Aksu is of interglacial age. None of the landslide deposits show traces of glacial erosion, hence their locations and ¹⁰Be ages mark maximum extents and minimum ages of glacial advances, respectively. Using toe-to-headwall altitude ratios of 0.4–0.5, we reconstruct minimum equilibrium-line altitudes that exceed previous estimates by as much as 400 m along the moister northern fringe of the Tien Shan. Our data show that deposits from large landslides can provide valuable spatio-temporal constraints for glacial advances in landscapes where moraines and glacial deposits have low preservation potential.  相似文献   

Palaeosols and palaeokarst beneath subaerial unconformities in an Upper Devonian isolated reef complex (Judy Creek), Swan Hills Formation,west‐central Alberta,Canada     

NANCY CHOW  JACK WENDTE 《Sedimentology》2011,58(4):960-993

Subaerial unconformities are used widely for palaeoenvironmental and palaeogeographic reconstructions, sequence stratigraphy and petroleum reservoir assessments. Recognition and interpretation of these unconformities, particularly those with associated palaeosols, may be problematic in Lower and Middle Palaeozoic carbonate successions because of the collective effect of limited land plant development, superficial similarities between some pedogenic and marine features, and overprinting by later diagenesis. The isolated Judy Creek reef complex in the Lower Frasnian Swan Hills Formation in west‐central Alberta, Canada, contains two subaerial unconformities, R0.5 and R4, which formed as a consequence of relative sea‐level falls of at least regional scale. Deposits beneath these unconformities have distinctive palaeosol and palaeokarst features. The lower unconformity, R0.5, occurs at the top of a progradational reefal phase of stromatoporoid rudstones–floatstones and peloidal packstones–grainstones and has been recognized in at least one other isolated Swan Hills reef complex (Snipe Lake). Palaeosol–palaeokarst profiles beneath this unconformity extend as deep as ca 2 m below the unconformity. These profiles are characterized by the presence of small rhizoliths, laminar calcretes, ferroan dolomite glaebules, desiccation cracks, breccias, green shale and solution vugs. The upper unconformity, R4, occurs at the top of a backstepping phase of reef growth and has been correlated widely between isolated reefs and carbonate banks on both the western and eastern shelves of the Central Alberta Basin. Palaeosol–palaeokarst profiles, extending as deep as ca 9·5 m beneath the R4 unconformity, are distinguished by abundant, sub‐horizontal desiccation cracks filled with green shale, occurring in peloidal wackestones–packstones. Comparison of the R0.5 and R4 profiles indicates that the major intrinsic controls on the development and modification of the profiles are parent‐material lithology, particularly the prior degree of induration and particle size; the low topographic relief at the top of the reef interior; and limited vegetation of the exposed reef top due to unfavourable growth conditions and geographic isolation. In addition to climate, the major extrinsic controls are the extent of relative sea‐level fall, estimated to be 2·5 to 3 m and 13 to 14 m associated with the R0.5 and R4 unconformities, respectively, and the degree of shoreface erosion during the ensuing marine transgression, estimated to be up to 3 m. This study highlights the complex interplay of mainly physical and chemical processes influencing the formation of subaerial unconformities in carbonate environments during the Devonian, before major evolutionary innovations among vascular land plants led to more intense pedogenesis.  相似文献   

Complex multiple cosmogenic nuclide concentration and histories in the arid Rio Lluta catchment,northern Chile     

F. Kober  S. Ivy‐Ochs  G. Zeilinger  F. Schlunegger  P. W. Kubik  H. Baur  R. Wieler 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2009,34(3):398-412

Terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide (TCN) concentrations measured in river sediments can be used to estimate catchment‐wide denudation rates. By investigating multiple TCN the steadiness of sediment generation, transport and depositional processes can be tested. Measurements of ¹⁰Be, ²¹Ne and ²⁶Al from the hyper‐ to semi‐arid Rio Lluta catchment, northern Chile, yield average single denudation rates ranging from 12 to 75 m Myr^–1 throughout the catchment. Paired nuclide analysis reveals complex exposure histories for most of the samples and thus the single nuclide estimates do not exclusively represent catchment‐wide denudation rates. The lower range of single nuclide denudation rates (12–17 m Myr^–1), established with the noble gas ²¹Ne, is in accordance with palaeodenudation rates derived from ²¹Ne/¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al/¹⁰Be ratio analysis. Since this denudation rate range is measured throughout the system, it is suggested that a headwater signal is transported downstream but modulated by a complex admixture of sediment that has been stored and buried at proximal hillslope or terrace deposits, which are released during high discharge events. That is best evidenced by the stable nuclide ²¹Ne, which preserves the nuclide concentration even during storage intervals. The catchment‐wide single ²¹Ne denudation rates and the palaeodenuation rates contrast with previous TCN‐derived erosion rates from bedrock exposures at hillslope interfluves by being at least one order of magnitude higher, especially in the lower river course. These results support earlier studies that identified a coupling of erosional processes in the Western Cordillera contrasting with decoupled processes in the Western Escarpment and in the Coastal Cordillera. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Forecasting exposure to volcanic ash based on ash dispersion modeling   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Rorik A. Peterson  Ken G. Dean   《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008,170(3-4):230-246

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