Prediction of UT1–UTC,LOD and AAM χ<Subscript>3</Subscript> by combination of least-squares and multivariate stochastic methods     

Tomasz Niedzielski  Wiesław Kosek 《Journal of Geodesy》2008,82(2):83-92

This article presents the application of a multivariate prediction technique for predicting universal time (UT1–UTC), length of day (LOD) and the axial component of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM χ ₃). The multivariate predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC are generated by means of the combination of (1) least-squares (LS) extrapolation of models for annual, semiannual, 18.6-year, 9.3-year oscillations and for the linear trend, and (2) multivariate autoregressive (MAR) stochastic prediction of LS residuals (LS + MAR). The MAR technique enables the use of the AAM χ ₃ time-series as the explanatory variable for the computation of LOD or UT1–UTC predictions. In order to evaluate the performance of this approach, two other prediction schemes are also applied: (1) LS extrapolation, (2) combination of LS extrapolation and univariate autoregressive (AR) prediction of LS residuals (LS + AR). The multivariate predictions of AAM χ ₃ data, however, are computed as a combination of the extrapolation of the LS model for annual and semiannual oscillations and the LS + MAR. The AAM χ ₃ predictions are also compared with LS extrapolation and LS + AR prediction. It is shown that the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS + MAR taking into account the axial component of AAM are more accurate than the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS extrapolation or on LS + AR. In particular, the UT1–UTC predictions based on LS + MAR during El Niño/La Niña events exhibit considerably smaller prediction errors than those calculated by means of LS or LS + AR. The AAM χ ₃ time-series is predicted using LS + MAR with higher accuracy than applying LS extrapolation itself in the case of medium-term predictions (up to 100 days in the future). However, the predictions of AAM χ ₃ reveal the best accuracy for LS + AR.  相似文献   

舒兰市福安堡钼矿床地质特征及找矿意义   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

孟广才  鲁若飞  王玉增  王振贵 《吉林地质》2008,27(2)

本文较详细地介绍了福安堡中型斑岩钼矿床的地质特征、找矿标志及找矿方法,对在吉林地区北部舒兰—蛟河一带分布的印支—燕山期花岗岩区寻找大、中型斑岩型钼矿床具有重要的指导意义。  相似文献   

Debris-flow event in the Frangerello Stream-Susa Valley (Italy)—calibration of numerical models for the back analysis of the 16 October, 2000 rainstorm     

P. Bertolo  G. Bottino 《Landslides》2008,5(1):19-30

Three debris-flow simulation model software have been applied to the back analysis of a typical alpine debris flow that caused significant deposition on an urbanized alluvial fan. Parameters used in the models were at first retrieved from the literature and then adjusted to fit field evidence. In the case where different codes adopted the same parameters, the same input values were used, and comparable outputs were obtained. Results of the constitutive laws used (Bingham rheology, Voellmy fluid rheology and a quadratic rheology formulation which adds collisional and turbulent stresses to the Bingham law) indicate that no single rheological model appears to be valid for all debris flows. The three applied models appear to be capable of reasonable reproduction of debris-flow events, although with different levels of detail. The study shows how different software can be used to predict the debris-flow motion for various purposes from a first screening, to predict the runout distance and deposition of the solid material and to the different behaviour of the mixtures of flows with variation of maximum solid concentration.  相似文献   

Testing earthquake prediction methods: «The West Pacific short-term forecast of earthquakes with magnitude MwHRV ≥ 5.8»     

V.G. Kossobokov   《Tectonophysics》2006,413(1-2):25

Analyzing the tables and probability maps posted by Yan Y. Kagan and David D. Jackson in April 2002–September 2004 at http://scec.ess.ucla.edu/~ykagan/predictions_index.html and the catalog of earthquakes for the same period, the conclusion is drawn that the underlying method could be used for prediction of aftershocks, while it does not outscore random guessing when main shocks are considered.  相似文献   

分形在储层参数井间预测中的应用   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

陈克勇  张哨楠  邓礼正  胡永章 《新疆地质》2005,23(4):413-416

现有地震资料难以实现储层薄层的预测，分形理论的引入，可弥补这一不足．以具有连续性和等间距采样点的测井资料为基础，以分形分析理论为手段，结合生产实际进行了研究．根据分形地质统计学中对储层参数的研究，得出其分形理论模型，并通过VisualBasic语言编程，在计算机上实现了某地区4口井储层参数（包括孔隙度、渗透率和泥质含量）的井间预测，其结果达到了预期的效果，说明将分形理论用于储层参数井间预测具有可行性．  相似文献   

主砂体及其构造改造样式的盆地产铀远景评价判据     

陈祖伊  郭庆银  刘红旭 《铀矿地质》2005,21(3):152-160

本文在介绍并分析美国和前苏联总结的砂岩型铀矿区域评价判据的基础上, 引入当今碎屑岩沉积学和盆地地球动力学方面的若干新进展, 提出以主砂体及其随后经历的构造改造样式相结合的盆地产铀远景评价判据和以分析区域构造活动史和原型盆地演化相结合的盆地产铀远景评价模式。最后以潮水盆地为例, 具体分析了盆地各个时代盖层容存后生铀矿化的可能性, 指出盆地中的主要找矿目标层位和远景成矿地段。  相似文献   

川滇黔桂76种元素地球化学图编制中分析方法与分析质量研究(一) 不同实验室产生地球化学图的相似性——以Ag、Cs、Ga、Ge为例   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

谢学锦  成杭新  谢渊如 《地质通报》2002,21(6)

编制中国76种元素地球化学图将使我们首次了解元素周期表上除氢、氧及惰性气体之外所有元素在中国大陆表层的分布,川滇黔桂76种元素地球化学图的编制是这一研究项目的试点。本文以不同实验室取得的Ag、Cs、Ga、Ge分析数据为例,探索、衡量不同实验室地球化学图相似性的方法,以优选实验室进行川滇黔桂4省区约4000件组合样76种元素的大规模分析工作。  相似文献   

投影寻踪门限回归模型在年径流预测中的应用   总被引：9，自引：4，他引：9  

金菊良  魏一鸣  丁晶 《地理科学》2002,22(2):171-175

为预测年径流这类同维复杂动力系统，提出了投影寻踪门限回归（PPTR）模型。构造了新的投影指标函数，用门限回归（TR）模型描述投影值与预测对象间的非线性关系，并用实码加速遗传算法优化投影指标指数函数和TR模型参数。实例的计算结果表明，用PPTR模型预测年径流是可行而有效的。PPRT模型简便、适用性强，克服了目前投影寻踪方法计算量大、编程实现困难的缺点，有利投影寻踪方法的推广应用，为解决高维非线性复杂预测问题提供了新途径。  相似文献   

从江县翁浪金矿床容矿岩石与围岩蚀变及其找矿标志   总被引：1，自引：7，他引：1  

王世杭 《贵州地质》2003,20(1):41-45

文章简单介绍了构造蚀变岩型金矿翁浪金矿床的容矿岩石和围岩蚀变特征，指出该类矿床的找矿标志，对进一步寻找此类矿床有一定的意义。  相似文献   

地震储层描述技术的应用效果   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

王萍 《物探与化探》2003,27(2):88-91

随着勘探程度的不断提高和油气勘探技术的不断发展,岩性油气藏勘探已成为主要的勘探目标,对三维地震储层描述新技术、新方法的要求越来越迫切.精细三维地震属性分析技术和储层识别标定技术以及测井约束反演技术的综合应用,形成了一套完善可行的技术系列,相继发现了辛154、王541、牛871等区块.地震储层描述技术的应用效果十分明鲜.  相似文献