地图信息度量方法的研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

刘宏林 《测绘学院学报》1992,(3)

概率统计方法是最早用于确定地图信息量的方法。但是,由于它的种种不适宜性而受到越来越多的怀疑。本文通过对概率统计方法的分析评价,试图跳出概率统计方法的框框,寻找一种更为有效的测度地图信息量的方法——综合指数法。试验结果表明,这种尝试是十分有效的。  相似文献   

STOCHASTIC THEORY OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF SEDIMENT PARTICLES SUSPENDED IN A TURBULENT FLOW     

SHAO Xuejun  XIA Zhenhuan ①Lecturer  Deportment of Hydraulic Engineering  Tsinghua University  Beijing China ②Professor  Department of Hydraulic Engineering Tsinghua University  Beijing  China 《国际泥沙研究》1991,(2)

The random motion of sediment particles suspended in a turbulent flow is studied by means of stochastic process. Results of analysis of particle's frequency response to the random force exerted on the particle due to fluid turbulence suggest that only the lower part of the whole frequency range of the eddy motion will govern the motion of the particle. The mean values of particle velocity and displacement in the vertical direc- tion are calculated and it is found that particle velocity vp- can be decomposed into a mean motion and a velocity fluctuation vp- , where is equal to the fall velocity in tranquil fluid. An Ito^ random differential equation for particle dis- placement Yp is developed, from which a Fokker-Planck equation for the probability density function p(y,t) is derived on the basis of the theory of Markov process, where y denotes the vertical coordinate. The vertical distribution of the particle is thus interrelated to the random motion of the particle. The an effect that a particle will be subject to in the neighborhood or the bottom boundary is taken into consideration and a corresponding Fokker-Planck equation is developed. Analytical solution of the Fok- ker-Planck equation including the lift force effect shows that probability density p(y,t) for the particle displacement has a maximum value at y = H where the perpen- dicular component of the lift force balances the particle gravity. This theoretical result agrees with experimental observations as reported in literature.  相似文献   

云南地区未来强震的概率预测     

杨子汉 《地震研究》1990,13(2):139-144

本文将云南地区分为三个地震预报区,利用马尔科夫齐次模型,分别计算了其未来5年和10年时间内可能发生M≥6.0、M≥6.5和M≥7.0级地震的概率。  相似文献   

风暴尺度集合预报中的混合初始扰动方法及其在北京2012年“7.21”暴雨预报中的应用   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4  

庄潇然  闵锦忠  王世璋  周凯  蔡沅辰 《大气科学》2017,41(1):30-42

风暴尺度集合预报系统（Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast system,简称SSEFs）中集合成员之间发散度不足一直都是研究的难点。本文尝试了将Barnes空间滤波融入到集合转换卡尔曼滤波（ETKF）更新预报系统中的混合初值扰动法。该方案将ETKF方法的小尺度信息与来自于侧边界条件扰动的大尺度信息相结合,缓解了扰动在侧边界不匹配的问题。通过2012年北京“7.21”暴雨并使用邻位方法对比分析了不同初值扰动方案在不同时间尺度与空间尺度上的特征,在此基础上进一步探讨了构造混合初始扰动法的可行性。结果表明:ETKF试验所构造的初始扰动无法与侧边界条件扰动相匹配,混合后的初始扰动可以有效缓解SSEFs中由于初始扰动与侧边界扰动不匹配产生的虚假波动,其中大尺度信息保留较多的混合试验（ETKF80）和动力降尺度方案（Down）在减少虚假波动方面的效果最优;从集合离散度来看,在前期暖区降水阶段ETKF的离散度在小尺度上最大,随着锋面降水的开始,Down的离散度逐渐超过ETKF,而使用各滤波波段构造的混合试验同时具备ETKF与Down二者的特征。选择合理的滤波波段可以获得最为合理的离散度表现（ETKF180）,说明仅考虑侧边界匹配（Down和ETKF80）并不能获得最合理的集合离散度,应综合考虑其他因素。从降水概率预报结果来看,选取合适的滤波波段所构造的混合扰动试验同样获得了较好的效果。  相似文献   

Probability distribution of random wave–current forces     

Jin-Bao Song   《Ocean Engineering》2006,33(17-18):2435-2453

Based on the second-order solutions obtained for the three-dimensional weakly nonlinear random waves propagating over a steady uniform current in finite water depth, the joint statistical distribution of the velocity and acceleration of the fluid particle in the current direction is derived using the characteristic function expansion method. From the joint distribution and the Morison equation, the theoretical distributions of drag forces, inertia forces and total random forces caused by waves propagating over a steady uniform current are determined. The distribution of inertia forces is Gaussian as that derived using the linear wave model, whereas the distributions of drag forces and total random forces deviate slightly from those derived utilizing the linear wave model. The distributions presented can be determined by the wave number spectrum of ocean waves, current speed and the second order wave–wave and wave–current interactions. As an illustrative example, for fully developed deep ocean waves, the parameters appeared in the distributions near still water level are calculated for various wind speeds and current speeds by using Donelan–Pierson–Banner spectrum and the effects of the current and the nonlinearity of ocean waves on the distribution are studied.  相似文献   

长兴、横沙两岛潮滩沉积物的粒度概率及其分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

杨世伦  徐海根 《海洋科学》1994,18(1):60-63

通过对长兴、横沙两岛潮滩沉积物粒度概率曲线的分析，揭示了潮滩沉积物的以下特点：１．以跃移组分为主，悬移组分次之，滚动组分极少；２．随着沉积物的变细，跃移组分含量呈减少趋势，悬移组分相反；３．跃移和悬移组分具有显著的双段式特征，反映了潮流的双向搬运和沉积作用；４．跃移－悬移组分的临界粒径（ψ）与样品的平均粒径Ｍ（ψ）之间呈抛物线型正相关。  相似文献   

Quantitative estimation of petroleum prospect outcome probabilities: an overview of procedures     

John W. Harbaugh 《Marine and Petroleum Geology》1984,1(4):298-312

Estimation of prospect outcome probabilities in numerical form should be a central objective for petroleum geologists. Most numerical estimates of outcome probabilities represent subjective guesses. While the effectiveness of subjective procedures is difficult to gauge, several postmortem analyses suggest that subjective procedures are ineffective. Objective procedures for estimating outcome probabilities should yield much improved estimates. Objective procedures require that geological, geophysical and production data be organized so that geological and geophysical characteristics of prospects interpreted before they were drilled can be compared systematically with outcomes of prospects after they have been drilled. An example application that involves well data and an example application that involves seismic data demonstrate that objective procedures are simple in principle, but require organization of information in a form suitable for computation of frequencies, on which objective estimates of probabilities can be based.  相似文献   

Wave-height distributions and nonlinear effects   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

M. Aziz Tayfun  Francesco Fedele 《Ocean Engineering》2007,34(11-12):1631-1649

Theoretical distributions proposed for describing the crest-to-trough heights of linear waves are reviewed briefly. To explore the effects of nonlinearities, these are generalized to second-order waves, utilizing quasi-deterministic results on the expected shape of large waves. The efficacy of Gram–Charlier models in describing the effects of third-order nonlinearities on the distributions of wave heights, crests and troughs are examined in detail. All models and a fifth-order Stokes–Rayleigh type model recently proposed are compared with linear and nonlinear waves simulated from the JONSWAP spectrum representative of long-crested extreme seas, and also with oceanic data gathered in the North Sea. Uncertainties arising from the variability of probability estimates derived from sample populations of limited size are considered. Ultimately, the comparisons show that nonlinearities do not have any discernable effect on the crest-to-trough heights of oceanic waves. Most of the linear models considered yield similar and reasonable predictions of the observed data trends. Gram–Charlier type distributions seem neither effective nor particularly useful in describing the statistics of large wave heights or crests under oceanic conditions. However, they do surprisingly well in predicting unusually large wave heights and crests observed in some 2D wave-flume experiments and 3D numerical simulations of long-crested narrow-band random waves.  相似文献   

直立堤浮托力的概率特征     

黄培基  陈雪英  胡泽建 《海洋与湖沼》1992,23(4):362-370

本文基于1987和1988年夏季在古镇口港同步连续观测的波浪、波压力和浮托力资料,分析研究了浮托力的概率特征、浮托力沿堤底面的变化及其谱特征。结果表明,浮托力幅度和周期的累积分布实际上不随测点在堤底面上的位置变化,可用公式表示。浮托力沿堤底面宽度近似呈线性衰减,前趾浮托力最大,后趾不为零,呈梯形状。文中还给出了计算最大峰、谷总浮托力的方法。  相似文献   

基于对流尺度集合预报的飑线结构特征模拟与改善     

马申佳  何宏让  陈超辉  吴丹  陈圣劼 《气象与环境学报》2019,35(1):1-9

对流尺度集合预报是研究飑线等强对流天气的新方向。当前对飑线系统结构的研究主要采用卫星和雷达资料结合高分辨率确定性预报的方法,而本文从集合预报技术的角度分析飑线结构特征。针对2014年7月30日中国江淮地区的一次强飑线过程,利用WRF模式开展了对流尺度集合预报试验,采用概率匹配平均法对集合预报结果进行综合处理,重点考察集合预报对飑线结构特征的模拟能力。结果表明:对流尺度集合预报能够模拟出飑线系统的基本结构特征。集合平均和概率匹配平均法相比控制预报而言,对飑线回波、热力场、动力场和微物理量场结构有明显的改善作用。同时模拟出了飑线系统近地面冷池和环境垂直风切变的相互作用,与RKW理论相一致。概率匹配平均法在回波强度上较集合平均更接近实况,应用于对流尺度集合预报研究极端天气事件具有指示意义。  相似文献