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81.
M. Lang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1999,13(3):183-200
The idea of an over-threshold sampling is to retain all the events of a time-series exceeding a given threshold. The probabilistic
analysis implies estimating two statistical models, one describing the occurrence of the events (date of the events), the
other describing their magnitude (value of the local maximum). These two models are then combined to obtain the distribution
of the annual maxima. A well-known result of a Poisson process is that waiting time, defined as the duration between two successive
events exceeding the threshold, is exponentially distributed. The assertion that the waiting time of a Negative Binomial process
is also exponentially distributed seems to be in obvious contradiction with the Poisson process properties. A theoretical
discussion and Monte-Carlo simulations are presented to solve this apparent paradox. 相似文献
82.
Monte Carlo模拟法与基坑变形的可靠度分析 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
将Ｍｏｎｔｅ Ｃａｒｌｏ模拟法与有限元技术结合,对基坑变形的稳定怀进行了可靠度分析,并通过重构响应面来提高Ｍｏｎｔｅ Ｃａｒｌｏ模拟法的计算效率,研究表明该方法可行,计算结果较符合实际。 相似文献
83.
DING Keqin DUAN Menglan FU Pinsheng LIU Chuntu
Ph. D. Associate Professor Research Department Center of Boiler Pressure Vessel Inspection Research Beijing P. R. China
Ph. D. Research Professor CCS Research Development Center China Classification Society Beijing P. R. China
Lecturer Yumen Petroleum School of Technique Technology Yumen P. R. China Research Professor 《中国海洋工程》1999,(4)
A simple probabilistic model for predicting crack growth behavior under random loading is pre-sented.In the model,the parameters c and m in the Paris-Erdogan Equation are taken as random variables,and their stochastic characteristic values are obtained through fatigue crack propagation tests on an offshorestructural steel under constant amplitude loading.Furthermore,by using the Monte Carlo simulation tech-nique,the fatigue crack propagation life to reach a given crack length is predicted.The tests are conducted toverify the applicability of the theoretical prediction of the fatigue crack propagation. 相似文献
84.
85.
Rainfall–runoff models with different conceptual structures for the hydrological processes can be calibrated to effectively reproduce the hydrographs of the total runoff, while resulting in water budget components that are essentially different. This finding poses an open question on the reliability of rainfall–runoff models in reproducing hydrological components other than those used for calibration. In an effort to address this question, we use data from the Glafkos catchment in western Greece to calibrate and compare the ENNS model, a research-oriented lumped model developed for the river Enns in Austria developed for the river Enns in Austria, with the operational MIKE SHE model. Model performance is assessed in the light of the conceptual/structural differences of the modelled hydrological processes, using indices calculated independently for each year, rather than for the whole calibration period, since the former are stricter. We show that even small differences in the representation of hydrological processes may impact considerably on the water budget components that are not measured (i.e. not used for model calibration). From all water budget components, direct runoff exhibits the highest sensitivity to structural differences and related model parameters.
EDITOR M.C. AcremanASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Huang 相似文献
86.
Probabilistic analysis of soil‐structure interaction effects on the seismic performance of structures 
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下载免费PDF全文 This paper revisits the phenomenon of dynamic soil‐structure interaction (SSI) with a probabilistic approach. For this purpose, a twofold objective is pursued. First, the effect of SSI on inelastic response of the structure is studied considering the prevailing uncertainties. Second, the consequence of practicing SSI provisions of the current seismic design codes on the structural performance is investigated in a probabilistic framework. The soil‐structure system is modeled by the sub‐structure method. The uncertainty in the properties of the soil and the structure is described by random variables that are input to this model. Monte Carlo sampling analysis is employed to compute the probability distribution of the ductility demand of the structure, which is selected as the metrics for the structural performance. In each sample, a randomly generated soil‐structure system is subjected to a randomly selected and scaled ground motion. To comprehensively model the uncertainty in the ground motion, a suite of 3269 records is employed. An extensive parametric study is conducted to cover a wide range of soil‐structure systems. The results reveal the probability that SSI increases the ductility demand of structures designed based on the conventional fixed‐based assumption but built on flexible soil in reality. The results also show it is highly probable that practicing SSI provisions of modern seismic codes increase the ductility demand of the structure. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
87.
深渊着陆器在下潜过程中,由于受到海流的影响,其坐底位置会偏离投放点,偏离量和偏离方向很难估计,而声学水下定位方法在深渊海区不太适用.通过在海面进行气枪十字放炮作业,利用炮点准确位置和时间信息,以及海底地震仪(Ocean Bottom Seismometer,OBS)记录的直达水波到时,对深渊着陆器的坐底位置进行精确测量可以提供有效定位数据.该方法对采集得到的数据进行预处理,使用蒙托卡洛方法结合最小二乘法,对万泉号着陆器实际坐底位置进行了反演校正,得到三个潜次的位置校正偏移量分别为211m、178m、861m,偏移方向各不相同,校正精度为±20m,比以往的定位精度大为提高.此外,该方法测量确定了三个海底标志物的精确位置,为未来万米无人或载人潜器提供了可靠的水下参考坐标. 相似文献
88.
Knowledge about model uncertainty is essential for erosion modelling and provides important information when it comes to parameterizing models. In this paper a sensitivity analysis of the European soil erosion model (EUROSEM) is carried out using Monte Carlo simulation, suitable for complex non‐linear models, using time‐dependent driving variables. The analysis revealed some important characteristics of the model. The variability of the static output parameters was generally high, with the hydrologic parameters being the most important ones, especially saturated hydraulic conductivity and net capillary drive followed by the percentage basal area for the hydrological and vegetation parameters and detachability and cohesion for the soil erosion parameters. Overall, sensitivity to vegetation parameters was insignificant. The coefficient of variation for the sedigraph was higher than for the hydrograph, especially from the beginning of the rainstorm and up to the peak, and may explain difficulties encountered when trying to match simulated hydrographs and sedigraphs with observed ones. The findings from this Monte Carlo simulation calls for improved within‐storm modelling of erosion processes in EUROSEM. Information about model uncertainty will be incorporated in a new EUROSEM user interface. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
89.
叠前纵波方位各向异性检测裂缝是目前应用最为广泛的方法,该方法主要是利用AVAZ地震资料椭圆拟合的长轴与短轴信息来评价裂缝,该方法在具体应用时,认为裂缝型储层AVAZ响应特征的变化仅由各向异性参数决定,而没有考虑非各向异性参数的影响,从而引起裂缝评价的多解性。为提高该技术的裂缝评价精度,从模型分析入手,将模型中各向异性参数及岩性参数设置为概率密度分布函数,然后采用Monte Carlo随机方法进行叠前AVAZ正演模拟。首先,对各向异性参数对椭圆拟合的影响进行简单分析,得出各向异性参数γ对椭圆扁率B/A与各向异性因子B影响最大、δ次之、ε最小。然后,进一步重点分析不同标准差的速度与密度模型的B/A与B响应特征,得出地层的速度与密度的变化在较小范围内时,该技术评价裂缝才具有一定的可行性,其中,地层纵波和横波速度的变化（尤其是纵波速度）对叠前AVAZ响应影响较大,地层密度几乎没有影响,故当横向岩性变化较大时,该方法在评价裂缝型储层时的结果具有一定的不确定性。 相似文献
90.
M. van Der Perk 《水文研究》1998,12(5):683-699
A method that combines calibration and identifiability analysis of a dynamic water quality model to evaluate the relative importance of various processes affecting the dynamic aspects of water composition is illustrated by a study of the response of suspended sediment and dissolved nutrients to a flood hydrograph in a rural catchment area in the Netherlands. Since the water quality model simulates the observed concentrations of suspended sediment and dissolved nutrients reasonably well, the most important processes during the observed flood hydrograph could be determined. These were erosion, exchange between dissolved phase and bed sediments and denitrification. It is concluded that the method is very useful for identifying the most significant model parameters and processes that are essential for water quality modelling. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献