Forecast of the Decadal Average Sunspot Number     

D. M. Volobuev  N. G. Makarenko 《Solar physics》2008,249(1):121-133

The forecast of the decadal average sunspot number (SN) becomes possible with an extension of telescopic observations based on proxy reconstructions using the tree ring radiocarbon data during the Holocene. These decadal numbers (SN_RC) provide a powerful statistic to verify the forecasting methods. Complicated dynamics of long-term solar activity and noise of proxy-based reconstruction make the one-step-ahead forecast challenging for any forecasting method. Here we construct a continuous data set of SN_RC which extends the group sunspot number and the international sunspot number. The known technique of nonlinear forecast, the local linear approximation, is adapted to estimate the coming SN. Both the method and the continuous data set were tested and tuned to obtain the minimum of a normalized average prediction error (E) during the last millennium using several past millennia as a training data set. E=0.58σ _D is achieved to forecast the SN successive differences whose standard deviation is σ _D=7.39 for the period of training. This corresponds to the correlation (r=0.97) between true and forecasted SN. This error is significantly smaller than the prediction error when the surrogate data were used for the training data set, and proves the nonlinearity in the decadal SN. The estimated coming SN is smaller than the previous one.  相似文献   

Kīlauea summit overflows: their ages and distribution in the Puna District, Hawai'i     

David A. Clague  Jonathan T. Hagstrum  Duane E. Champion  Melvin H. Beeson 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1999,61(6):363-381

 The tube-fed pāhoehoe lava flows covering much of the northeast flank of Kīlauea Volcano are named the 'Ailā'au flows. Their eruption age, based on published and six new radiocarbon dates, is approximately AD 1445. The flows have distinctive paleomagnetic directions with steep inclinations (40°–50°) and easterly declinations (0°–10°E). The lava was transported ∼40 km from the vent to the coast in long, large-diameter lava tubes; the longest tube (Kazumura Cave) reaches from near the summit to within several kilometers of the coast near Kaloli Point. The estimated volume of the 'Ailā'au flow field is 5.2±0.8 km³, and the eruption that formed it probably lasted for approximately 50 years. Summit overflows from Kīlauea may have been nearly continuous between approximately AD 1290 and 1470, during which time a series of shields formed at and around the summit. The 'Ailā'au shield was either the youngest or the next to youngest in this series of shields. Site-mean paleomagnetic directions for lava flows underlying the 'Ailā'au flows form only six groups. These older pāhoehoe flows range in age from 2750 to <18,000 BP, and the region was inundated by lava flows only three times in the past 5000 years. The known intervals between eruptive events average ∼1600 years and range from ∼1250 years to >2200 years. Lava flows from most of these summit eruptions also reached the coast, but none appears as extensive as the 'Ailā'au flow field. The chemistry of the melts erupted during each of these summit overflow events is remarkably similar, averaging approximately 6.3 wt.% MgO near the coast and 6.8 wt.% MgO near the summit. The present-day caldera probably formed more recently than the eruption that formed the 'Ailā'au flows (estimated termination ca. AD 1470). The earliest explosive eruptions that formed the Keanakāko'i Ash, which is stratigraphically above the 'Ailā'au flows, cannot be older than this age. Received: 10 October 1998 / Accepted: 12 May 1999  相似文献   

Large 14C age offsets between the fine fraction and coexisting planktonic foraminifera in shallow Caribbean sediments     

《Quaternary Geochronology》2017

Absolute chronologies in paleoceanographic records are often constructed using the ¹⁴C dating of coarse fraction foraminifera (>150 μm). However, due to processes such as changes in sediment sources or abundances, sedimentation rates, bioturbation, reworking, the adsorption of modern carbon, etc., several studies conducted in different environmental settings have shown time-lags between records obtained from various granulometric fractions. In this study, we examined temporal phasing between the coarse foraminifera and fine fractions by studying changes in the abundances of δ¹⁸O, the ¹⁴C ages of the planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber (G. ruber, 250–350 μm), and the sediment fine fraction (<63 μm) over the last 45 ka in a core obtained from the northern Caribbean Sea. All of the records were found to be in phase during part of the Holocene (at least for the last ≈6 ka). As determined from δ¹⁸O records and ¹⁴C ages, the fine fraction was younger than G. ruber during the Last Deglaciation (of 1.89 ka). The coupling between bioturbation and changes in the fine fraction, and G. ruber abundances, as tested using a numerical model of the bioturbation record within a mixed-layer depth of 8 cm, was sufficient to explain the results. ¹⁴C age discrepancies increased from 5.64 to 8.5 ka during Marine Isotopic Stages (MIS) 2 and 3, respectively. These chronological discrepancies could not be explained by only one process and seemed to result from the interplay between mechanisms: size-differentiated bioturbation (for 1.5 to 2.5 ka), the adsorption of modern atmospheric CO₂ (for 3.04 to 5.92 ka), and variations in sedimentological processes that influenced the fine carbonate fraction. However, even if variations in the mineralogical composition of the fine carbonate fraction were identified using scanning-electron microscopy observations, X-ray diffraction measurements, and geochemical analyses (the mol % MgCO₃ of magnesian calcite and the Sr/Ca ratio of the bulk fine fraction), they can not account for the observed age differences. The results presented for core MD03-2628 extend beyond this case study because they illustrate the need for a detailed characterization of the various size fractions prior to paleoclimate signal interpretations, especially for chronological studies.  相似文献   

The glacial and interstadial sediments at the Burn of Benholm,Kincardineshire: evidence for onshore pre‐Devensian ice movement in northeast Scotland     

Clive A. Auton  John E. Gordon  Jon W. Merritt  Michael J. C. Walker 《第四纪科学杂志》2000,15(2):141-156

Pebbly clays and diamictons containing marine shell fragments and peat lenses exposed beneath subglacially deposited Late Devensian till at the Burn of Benholm provide new insights into the glacial history of Quaternary sequences in eastern Scotland. The peat yielded pollen of interstadial affinity (including Bruckenthalia spiculifolia) and non‐finite radiocarbon dates. Comparisons with other pre‐Late Devensian pollen records in northern Scotland suggest that the peat lenses are remnants of an Early Devensian interstadial deposit, of Oxygen Isotope Substage 5c or 5a age. Reworked faunal assemblages in the shelly sediments include Quaternary marine molluscs of low boreal aspect, as well as Mesozoic and Palaeozoic microfossils. Amino acid ratios from fragments of Arctica islandica suggest that the shells are of Oxygen Isotope Stage 9 age or older. The fabric and composition of the shelly sediments are consistent with their emplacement as deformation till during the onshore movement of glacially transported rafts of marine sediment. Folded and sheared contacts between the shelly deposits, peat lenses and the overlying Late Devensian till indicate that the fossiliferous sediments were glacitectonised during the main Late Devensian glaciation, when ice moved from Strathmore and overrode the site from the southwest. British Geological Survey. © NERC 2000.  相似文献   

Stable carbon isotope variations in northwest Europe during the last glacial–interglacial transition     

Chris S. M. Turney  David J. Beerling  Douglas D. Harkness  J. John Lowe  E. Marian Scott 《第四纪科学杂志》1997,12(4):339-344

Stable carbon isotope data that span part of the last glacial–interglacial transition (ca. 14-9 ka ¹⁴C BP; ca. 15–11 ka cal. BP), and which derive from organ-specific plant macrofossils recovered from two lake sediment profiles in the UK and one in Norway, are compared. The recorded temporal variations show similar trends, which, over a millennial time-scale appear to parallel the main drift in δ¹⁸O as determined for the GRIP ice-core. It is postulated that some smaller scale variations in the δ¹³C profiles may reflect the shorter term oscillations in δ¹⁸O values evident in the GRIP record, although this is less certain. Overall, however, the results suggest that stable carbon isotope measurements based on organ-specific terrestrial plant macrofossils may provide (i) a means for establishing correlations between terrestrial successions and (ii) additional paleoenvironmental information, as the apparent ‘shadowing’ of the GRIP record indicates a common forcing mechanism for both Greenland δ¹⁸O and northwest European δ¹³C variations. From the evidence available we suggest that the recorded δ¹³C variations reflect fluctuations in air temperature and/or changes in water vapour pressure in the atmosphere. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

New radiocarbon dates from Finnish mammoths indicating large ice-free areas in Fennoscandia during the Middle Weichselian     

Pirkko Ukkonen  Juha Pekka Lunkka  Hgne Jungner  Joakim Donner 《第四纪科学杂志》1999,14(7):711-714

New radiocarbon dates from Finnish subfossil mammoth material (Mammuthus sp.), transported by glacial ice, range in age from ca. 32000 to ca. 22500 yr BP. These results suggest that there was a larger ice-free area in Fennoscandia during the Middle Weichselian than previously assumed. In addition, two dates are also presented for bones found in clay with a different transport history. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Tectonic and climatic controls on historical landscape modifications: The avulsion of the lower Cecina River (Tuscany, central Italy)     

Marco Benvenuti  Marco Bonini  Giovanna Moratti  Marianna Ricci  Chiara Tanini   《Geomorphology》2008,100(3-4):269-284

Integration of geomorphology, stratigraphy, sedimentology and morphotectonics in the analysis of the lower Cecina River reach, coastal Tuscany, reveals an undocumented historical channel avulsion. Geomorphological evidence and radiocarbon dating support that, from the Last Glacial Maximum until the end of the 16th century, the Cecina River flowed north of the present course and formed a well-developed cuspate delta. Two concurrent factors, active tectonics as a preparing factor and discharge regime as an activation factor, are thus inferred to have favored the avulsion of Cecina River. Fragmentary archaeological and historical records indicate that the late Holocene Cecina River plain was virtually unpopulated until the latest 16th century. This seems the main reason why high-magnitude hydrological events and prominent river channel avulsions were not reported in historical chronicles. From this perspective, geomorphological data may provide important knowledge and understanding of recent dynamics of environmental change when historical record is lacking or missing.  相似文献   

Best practice methodology for 14C calibration of marine and mixed terrestrial/marine samples     

《Quaternary Geochronology》2015

There is a lack of detailed guidance in the published literature on how to calibrate ¹⁴C measurements made on marine or mixed marine/terrestrial (primarily human remains) samples. We describe what we consider to be the best approach towards achieving the most accurate calibrated age ranges, using the most appropriate ΔR and percentage marine diet estimates, and associated, realistic error terms on these values. However, this approach will increase the calibrated age range(s) by fully accounting for the variability in both the model and the material. While the discussion is based on examples from the UK and Iceland, the same fundamental arguments can be applied in any geographic location largely devoid of C₄ plants as the high δ¹³C values from such plants can make identification of marine intake difficult to determine.  相似文献   

近40 年山西省初终霜日的变化特征   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

钱锦霞  张霞  张建新  范辽生  武捷 《地理学报》2010,65(7):801-808

利用山西省境内分布较为均匀的52 个地面气象站1970-2009 年的霜日观测资料,采用线性倾向估计法、累积滤波器法结合非参数统计检验方法分析了初终霜日的基本特征及其变化趋势;利用M-K法分析了霜日的突变特征。结果表明：初霜日、终霜日的出现以及无霜期的长短与地理因素密切相关,随着纬度逐渐偏北、海拔逐渐升高,初霜日提前、终霜日推后、无霜期缩短。从全省平均情况看,初霜日呈现显著的推后趋势,无霜期呈现显著的延长趋势,而终霜日的变化则以波动为主,线性变化趋势不显著。从突变检测情况看,初霜日、终霜日和无霜期在40 年间均存在一次明显突变,初霜日的突变点出现在2000 年,终霜日和无霜期的突变点出现在1997 年。从变化趋势的空间分布看,初霜日显著推后的区域大片集中在晋中东部、吕梁北部和忻州西部,以及分散在运城南部、临汾西北部和大同南部。终霜日显著提前的区域位于晋中东部山区、吕梁山东部和忻州西部。无霜期显著延长的区域位于西北部黄河沿岸、省境中东部和运城南段。变化趋势为初霜日提前、终霜日推后和无霜期缩短的区域未通过显著性检验。  相似文献   

Clarifying the distal to proximal tephrochronology of the Millennium (B–Tm) eruption,Changbaishan Volcano,northeast China     

《Quaternary Geochronology》2016

Tephra dispersed during the Millennium eruption (ME), Changbaishan Volcano, NE China provides one of the key stratigraphic links between Asia and Greenland for the synchronization of palaeoenvironmental records. However, controversy surrounds proximal-distal tephra correlations because (a) the proposed proximal correlatives of the distal ME tephra (i.e. B–Tm) lack an unequivocal chronostratigraphic context, and (b) the ME tephra deposits have not been chemically characterized for a full spectrum of element using grain-specific techniques. Here we present grain-specific glass chemistry, including for the first time, single grain trace element data, for a composite proximal sequence and a distal tephra from Lake Kushu, northern Japan (ca. 1100 km away from Changbaishan). We demonstrate a robust proximal-distal correlation and that the Kushu tephra is chemically associated with the ME/B–Tm. We propose that three of the proximal pyroclastic fall units were erupted as part of the ME. The radiocarbon chronology of the Kushu sedimentary record has been utilised to generate a Bayesian age-depth model, providing an age for the Kushu tephra which is consistent with high resolution ages determined for the eruption and therefore supports our geochemical correlation. Two further Bayesian age-depth models were independently constructed each incorporating one of two ice-core derived ages for the B–Tm tephra, providing Bayesian modelled ages of 933–949 and 944–947 cal AD (95.4%) for the Kushu tephra. The high resolution ice-core tephra ages imported into the deposition models help test and ultimately constrain the radiocarbon chronology in this interval of the Lake Kushu sedimentary record. The observed geochemical diversity between proximal and distal ME tephra deposits clearly evidences the interaction of two compositionally distinct magma batches during this caldera forming eruption.  相似文献