鲜水河断裂带北西段不同破裂源强震震级（M≥67）及复发间隔研究          下载免费PDF全文

冉洪流  何宏林 《地球物理学报》2006,49(1)

鲜水河断裂带是四川西部一条晚第四纪强烈左旋走滑活动的构造带，历史上发生多次强震. 它与西北侧的甘孜—玉树断裂带一起，构成青藏高原东部的侧向滑移构造系统中的川滇活动地块的北边界——羌塘地块的东北边界. 鲜水河断裂带北西段可以分成4个段落，每一段落均可作为一个独立的基本破裂单元而发生地震破裂，亦有可能发生不同尺度的多段联合瞧裂. 对鲜水河断裂带北西段不同尺度破裂的震级及复发间隔进行研究. 根据该地区的地质、地球物理、测量及地震等方面的资料，结合我国强震复发的特点，分析了拉分盆地内部的滑动速率分布，以确定各段落的等效长度和倾向宽度，从而建立适合我国大陆走滑断裂的面波震级与断裂发震面积的关系式；进而运用地震矩方法，考虑断层之间的相互作用，结合专家意见建立了该段的矩平衡断裂破裂模型；最后，给出了鲜水河断裂带北西段各破裂源特征化地震的复发间隔、震级大小和不确定性，以及他与中小地震的联合震级分布. 结果表明，鲜水河断裂带北西段较易发生单段破裂，复发间隔在100～150年左右.  相似文献   

Palaeoflood hydrology of the Salt river,Arizona     

John Partridge And  Victor R. Baker 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1987,12(2):109-125

Geomorphic evidence along bedrock-confined reaches of the Salt River in east-central Arizona provides a record of the river's largest flood events. Fine-grained flood slackwater deposits accumulated at channel margin irregularities several metres above the low-flow channel. Discharges associated with flow events responsible for the deposits were estimated by computer flow modelling. These estimates document flood magnitudes in excess of gauged historic streamflows. Relative and radiocarbon dating suggest that a flood record in excess of 600 y is preserved in the slackwater sequences. A prominent flood scar cut into grussy hillslope soils allows the extension of the prehistoric flood record to several thousand years. A maximum discharge estimate of 4600 m³s^?1 affixed to the flood scar represents the largest flood event in the record, and is given a minimum recurrence interval of 1000–2000 y. The 1952 flood is the largest historic flow event experienced along the study reach and is estimated at 2900 m³s^?1. Two palaeoflood events preserved in the slackwater stratigraphy exceed the 1952 event, and are given recurrence intervals of 300 and 600 y. The latter flood event had an estimated discharge of 3200 m³s^?1. It is apparent that discharge estimates affixed to these infrequent, large-magnitude flood events approach a maximum with decreased probabilities (large recurrence intervals). This suggests that a physical limit on discharge may exist within the Salt River drainage basin and is perhaps directly related to drainage basin size.  相似文献   

川滇地区若干活动断裂带整体的强地震复发特征研究   总被引：15，自引：0，他引：15  

易桂喜  闻学泽  徐锡伟 《中国地震》2002,18(3):267-276

我们根据历史地震资料，采用统计学方法研究了川滇地区7条活动断裂带整体的强地震复发特征。结果表明，这7条断裂带的强地震复发表现出趋于随机的、随机的、以及丛集的行为，复发过程不具有良好的准周期性，也不存在强度－时间或者时间－强度的相依性。组成断裂带的强震破裂段落的数量越多，复发过程就越复杂。相对的地震活跃期与平静期交替出现。其中，活跃期内地震复发间隔分布的离散性较大，可用Weibull分布近似描述；而平静期的持续时间分布的离散性较小，可用正态等分布近似描述。不同相对活跃期的持续时间及强震的数量差别很大，导致相对活跃期并非准周期重视。因此，基于断裂带整体强震复发间隔分布的中长期危险性概率评估仍然面临一定的困难。  相似文献   

Seismic Interevent Time: A Spatial Scaling and Multifractality     

G. Molchan  T. Kronrod 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(1):75-96

The optimal scaling problem for the time t(L × L) between two successive events in a seismogenic cell of size L is considered. The quantity t(L × L) is defined for a random cell of a grid covering a seismic region G. We solve that problem in terms of a multifractal characteristic of epicenters in G known as the tau-function or generalized fractal dimensions; the solution depends on the type of cell randomization. Our theoretical deductions are corroborated by California seismicity with magnitude M ≥ 2. In other words, the population of waiting time distributions for L = 10–100 km provides positive information on the multifractal nature of seismicity, which impedes the population to be converted into a unified law by scaling. This study is a follow-up of our analysis of power/unified laws for seismicity (see Pure and Applied Geophysics 162 (2005), 1135 and GJI 162 (2005), 899).  相似文献   

Characteristics of Large Earthquake Recurrence and Determination of Average Recurrence Interval Value     

Ran Yongkang  Deng Qidong 《中国地震研究》2000,14(1):86-96

Paleoearthquakes in the Yanqing-Huailai basin and on the Haiyuan fault are studied in detail.The result indicates that the recurrence behavior of large earthquakes is of a wide variety.Characteristic earthquakes show the behavior characteristics of the activity of most faults,butthey are of different grades,the recurrence interval of large earthquakes is of staged nature,and the interaction between faults has effects on the recurrence sequence of large earthquakes.Thus,when the recurrence behavior of large earthquakes is staged in time or when thegradation of characteristic earthquakes has led to a sharp difference in recurrence intervalbetween paleoearthquakes of different intensities,for estimating the large earthquake risk bythe deterministic method and time-dependent probabilistic method,it is necessary to calculatethe recurrence interval value separately for each specific stage or grade in order that theaverage recurrence interval values of different stages can be determined.  相似文献   

大庆断褶带最大潜在地震发生概率评估     

康健  韦庆海  张立忱  余中元  赵斌  刘青松 《震灾防御技术》2016,11(3):573-581

2011—2015年在大庆地区开展了活断层探测,查明区内北北东向断裂若干条,皆为大安-德都断裂的分支断裂,最新活动时代为Q_(1-2)。根据进一步研究发现大庆地区存在断裂褶皱变形带(以下简称断褶带)现象。断褶带与长垣隆起关系密切,分析大安-德都断裂活动是造成长垣隆起的内在动力成因。故由对大安-德都断裂各分支断裂的评价,进而引申到对断褶带地震危险性的评价是科学合理的。本文以断褶带为潜在震源区重新分析东北潜在震源区的地震空间分布概率,采用地震危险性概率分析方法,利用G-R关系预测断褶带未来100年内6.0级地震发震概率是0.039,重现周期为2500年。  相似文献   

运用古地震数据评价东昆仑断裂带东段未来百年的强震危险性   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

李正芳  周本刚  冉洪流 《地球物理学报》2012,55(9):3051-3065

通过收集、整理和分析青藏高原东北部22条断裂带上古地震定量数据,拟定了该区的地震复发概率密度函数.根据此函数对区内东昆仑断裂带东段不同段落上未来100年内强震原地复发的条件概率进行了初步研究.结果表明,该断裂带上自西向东的3个破裂段中,玛沁段和塔藏段未来20、50、100年的复发概率值介于0.76%~7.36%之间,玛曲段未来20、50年的复发概率值介于2.0%~5.26%,属于低概率事件;玛曲段未来100年的复发概率值为10.82%,属于中概率事件;整个段未来100年内至少发生一次7级以上强震的联合概率可达21.87%,属于中概率事件.考虑到概率模型的不确定性,进一步对各段进行了危险性的定性分类,综合评价认为玛沁段在未来百年内发生大震的危险性较低,玛曲段和塔藏段未来百年发生大震的危险性较高.最后将本文拟合的概率密度函数与传统通用函数计算的条件概率值进行比较,发现通用的复发概率函数随着自变量t/R的增大,因变量P的反映不如本文拟合函数的敏感.  相似文献   

Downstream hydraulic geometry of rivers in Victoria, Australia     

Ronald C. De Rose  Michael J. Stewardson  Ciaran Harman 《Geomorphology》2008,99(1-4):302-316

Downstream variation of hydraulic geometry in rivers, characterized by fine textured banks and low width to depth ratios (7–25), is investigated in Victoria, Australia, with the aim of developing predictive models of channel geometry for large-scale spatial modeling applications. A one-dimensional hydraulic model is used to determine the mean bank-full geometry and discharge (Q_bf) for 93 sites which are investigated in relation to discharge of fixed average recurrence interval (ARI). The median bank-full ARI is estimated at 0.8 years with 75% of sites between 0.5 and 2.5 years. Exponents in the downstream hydraulic geometry relations for width, depth and velocity are respectively 0.43, 0.40 and 0.18 (Q = Q_bf) and 0.44, 0.38 and 0.03 (Q = Q₂, i.e., 2-year ARI), falling near the mode of global values. Q₂ and slope explain 66% of variance in Q_bf, while Q₂ explains 73% and 69% of the variance in width and depth relations, respectively: Q₂ provides a reliable substitute for Q_bf in spatial modeling applications. Spatial variation in hydraulic geometry relations within and between river basins remains largely unexplained. The W/D ratio characteristically decreases with increasing distance along the lower reaches of most rivers and this has contributed to the lower than expected value for the width exponent.  相似文献   

综合石油地质、历史地震等资料评估吉林孤店隐伏断裂的地震危险性   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

邵博  沈军  李莹甄  于晓辉  戴训也  袁俊枫  尉洋 《中国地震》2015,31(4):668-678

在对松原地区开展的活断裂探测工作中发现了一条晚更新世活动断裂,称之为孤店断裂。本文通过三维地震资料获得了孤店隐伏活动断裂的地下细部结构,在对其地质构造、第四纪活动性、历史地震记录及地震活动性等进行综合研究的基础上,采用石油物探三维地震资料获得的基岩破裂长度进行经验关系拟合,对其潜在地震最大震级进行了评估,评估结果认为其约为M_W7。此外,采用地震矩方法获得复发周期、年发生率等定量参数,利用中国大陆古地震复发概率模型估算出孤店断裂未来50~200a的大地震发生概率。  相似文献   

Calculation of Probability of Cloud-Free Lines-of-Sight at given heights in Foshan, China     

Li Yunying  Sun Litan 《大气科学进展》1999,16(2):297-303

Based on Lund and Shanklin's work (1972), methods of calculating Probability of Cloud-Free Lines-of-Sight (PCFLOS), Persistence Probability of Cloud-Free Lines-of-Sight (PPCFLOS) and Recur-rence Probability of Cloud-free Lines-or-Sight (RPCFLOS) at given heights are presented. PCFLOS, PPCFLOS and RPCFLOS are calculated in Foshan, China by conventional observation data from 1961 to 1990. The conclusions are: (1) The higher the elevations, the smaller the PCFLOS and the larger the view angles, the larger the PCFLOS. (2) PPCFLOS and RPCFLOS decrease with the increase of elevation and the delay of time. (3) RPCFLOS is always equal to or larger than PPCFLOS at lag times.  相似文献