关于公元649年临汾地震的讨论   总被引：9，自引：3，他引：6  

丁国瑜 《中国地震》1998,14(3):38-42

唐贞观２３年８月癸酉（公元６４９年９月１２日）河东（黄河以东,今山西省境）地震,晋州（治临汾,今临汾市）尤甚。对此次地震事件的烈度等一直存在不同看法。  相似文献   

An investigation of seismicity for western Anatolia     

Nilgün Sayil  İlhan Osmanşahin 《Natural Hazards》2008,44(1):51-64

In order to investigate the seismicity of western Anatolia limited with the coordinates of 36°–40° N, 26°–32° E, Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency relation, seismic risk and recurrence period have been computed. The data belonging to both the historical period before 1900 (I₀ ≥ 5.0 corresponding to M_S ≥ 4.4) and the instrumental period until the end of 2006 (M_S ≥ 4.0) has been used in the analysis. The study area has been divided into 13 sub-regions due to certain seismotectonic characteristics, plate tectonic models and geology of the region. All the computations have been performed for these sub-regions, separately. According to the results, a and b values in the computed magnitude–frequency relations are in the intervals 3.19±0.17 – 5.15±0.52 and 0.42±0.05 – 0.66±0.07, respectively. The highest b values have been determined for sub-regions 3 and 12 (Demirci-Gediz and Gökova Gulf-Mu?la-Gölhisar). The lowest b values have also been determined for sub-regions 1 and 9 (Bal?kesir and Bodrum-?stanköy). Finally, seismic risk and recurrence period computations from a and b values have shown as expected that sub-regions 1 and 9 which have the lowest b values and the highest risks and the shortest-recurrence periods.  相似文献   

Regularized joint inverse estimation of extreme rainfall amounts in ungauged coastal basins of El Salvador     

Michael J. Friedel 《Natural Hazards》2008,46(1):15-34

A regularized joint inverse procedure is presented and used to estimate the magnitude of extreme rainfall events in ungauged coastal river basins of El Salvador: Paz, Jiboa, Grande de San Miguel, and Goascoran. Since streamflow measurements reflect temporal and spatial rainfall information, peak-flow discharge is hypothesized to represent a similarity measure suitable for regionalization. To test this hypothesis, peak-flow discharge values determined from streamflow recurrence information (10-year, 25-year, and 100-year) collected outside the study basins are used to develop regional (country-wide) regression equations. Peak-flow discharge derived from these equations together with preferred spatial parameter relations as soft prior information are used to constrain the simultaneous calibration of 20 tributary basin models. The nonlinear range of uncertainty in estimated parameter values (1 curve number and 3 recurrent rainfall amounts for each model) is determined using an inverse calibration-constrained Monte Carlo approach. Cumulative probability distributions for rainfall amounts indicate differences among basins for a given return period and an increase in magnitude and range among basins with increasing return interval. Comparison of the estimated median rainfall amounts for all return periods were reasonable but larger (3.2–26%) than rainfall estimates computed using the frequency-duration (traditional) approach and individual rain gauge data. The observed 25-year recurrence rainfall amount at La Hachadura in the Paz River basin during Hurricane Mitch (1998) is similar in value to, but outside and slightly less than, the estimated rainfall confidence limits. The similarity in joint inverse and traditionally computed rainfall events, however, suggests that the rainfall observation may likely be due to under-catch and not model bias.  相似文献   

粘弹性数值模拟龙门山断裂带应力积累及大震复发周期   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

柳畅  朱伯靖  石耀霖 《地质学报》2012,86(1):157-169

2008年5月12日在低地形变速率的龙门山断裂带上突发汶川强震,引发人们对该地震孕震机制的思考。本文根据GPS观测资料确定边界条件,通过三维粘弹性数值模拟探讨了汶川地震的孕震机理,计算了该区域岩石圈的应力增加速率和积累过程,以及汶川地震同震应力变化与震后应力松弛,在此基础上估算了汶川8.0级大地震的复发周期。数值模拟结果表明:印度板块对欧亚板块的推挤造成青藏高原的物质东流,高原中、下地壳物质在龙门山断裂带处遭到相对坚硬的四川盆地的阻挡之后,部分中、下地壳物质在龙门山断裂带下堆积产生应力集中。两个重要因素为应力集中提供了重要控制作用:其一是青藏高原中、下地壳较低的粘滞系数与四川盆地中、下地壳较高的粘滞系数的差异,其二是从青藏高原到四川盆地的Moho面深度在龙门山断裂带的突变。低应变速率的龙门断裂带岩石圈在数千年时间尺度的应力积累过程中,脆性上地壳的应力随时间近乎线性增长,并且上地壳深部的应力增长率超过浅部,6000年内应力积累最大量达到-21.6MPa,应力增长速率为-0.0036MPa/a;而柔性的中、下地壳以及岩石圈上地幔的应力在增长一段时间之后趋于稳定。在空间上,龙门山断裂带受到的压应力从断层西南向北东方向逐渐减小,而剪应力从西南到北东方向逐渐增大,应力状态有利于地震发生时断层的破裂方式从西南的逆冲运动向北东的逆冲兼走滑运动的方式发展。通过应力积累与地震应力降的计算得到汶川8.0级大地震的复发周期约为5400年。  相似文献   

Holocene valley-floor deposition and incision in a small drainage basin in western Colorado, USA     

Lawrence S. Jones  Margaret Rosenburg  Kathleen McKee  Jenna Hunter 《Quaternary Research》2010,74(2):199-206

The valley floor of a 33.9 km² watershed in western Colorado experienced gradual sedimentation from before ∼ 6765 to ∼ 500 cal yr BP followed by deep incision, renewed aggradation, and secondary incision. In contrast, at least four terraces and widespread cut-and-fill architecture in the valley floor downstream indicate multiple episodes of incision and deposition occurred during the same time interval. The upper valley fill history is atypical compared to other drainages in the Colorado Plateau.One possible reason for these differences is that a bedrock canyon between the upper and lower valley prevented headward erosion from reaching the upper valley fill. Another possibility is that widespread, sand-rich, clay-poor lithologies in the upper drainage limited surface runoff and generally favored alluviation, whereas more clay-rich lithologies in the lower drainage resulted in increased surface runoff and more frequent incision. Twenty-two dates from valley fill charcoal indicate an approximate forest fire recurrence interval of several hundred years, similar to that from other studies in juniper-piñon woodlands. Results show that closely spaced vertical sampling of alluvium in headwater valleys where linkages between hillslope processes and fluvial activity are relatively direct can provide insight about the role of fires in alluvial chronologies of semi-arid watersheds.  相似文献   

解读发震构造含义与判定原则   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

安艳芬  韩竹军 《震灾防御技术》2006,1(3):261-265

本文通过《中国历史强震目录》、《中国近代地震目录》、《中国地震台报告》、《中国地震详目》及部分地方台网测定的地震目录,初步分析了华南地区1000a以来中强地震(5.0≤M≤6?)的原地重复性,并从时、空、强三方面对地震原地重复特点做了统计分析。分析认为华南地区中强地震的发生具有较高的原地重复率,在时间、强度上都具有一定的规律性。这些规律的探讨对该地区地震区划及工程场地地震安全性评价具有一定的参考价值。  相似文献   

Study　on　Integrated　Recurrence　Behaviors　of　Strong　Earthquakes　Along　Entire　Active　Fault　Zones　in　the　Sichuan-Yunnan　Region,　China     

Yi Guixi  Wen Xueze  Xu Xiwei 《中国地震研究》2003,17(2):145-159

Based on historical earthquake data, we use statistical methods to study integrated recurrence behaviors of strong earthquakes along 7 selected active fault zones in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. The results show that recurrences of strong earthquakes in the 7 fault zones display near-random, random and clustering behaviors. The recurrence processes are never quasiperiodic, and are neither strength-time nor time-strength dependent. The more independent segments for strong earthquake rupturing a fault zone has, the more complicated the corresponding recurrence process is. And relatively active periods and quiescent periods for earthquake activity occur alternatively. Within the active periods, the distribution of recurrence time intervals between earthquakes has relatively large discretion, and can be modelled well by a Weibull distribution. The time distribution of the quiescent periods has relatively small discretion, and can be approximately described by some distributions as the normal. Both the durations of the active periods and the numbers of strong earthquakes within the active periods vary obviously cycle by cycle, leading to the relatively active periods having never repeated quasi-periodically. Therefore, the probabilistic assessment for middle- and longterm seismic hazard for entireties of active fault zones based on data of historical strong earthquakes on the fault zones still faces difficulty.  相似文献   

Scenario predictions for potential near-field and far-field earthquakes affecting Hong Kong     

A. M. Chandler  N. T. K. Lam 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2002,22(1)

Historical earthquakes noted in the written records of the South China region, including Hong Kong, are not well delineated along identified prominent fault sources. Despite the lack of any definitive, localised trend in the spatial distribution of seismic activity in the region, there does appear to be some major disparity in the seismic activity rates (especially for large magnitude earthquakes) between the near-field and the far-field regions of Hong Kong. Despite this observation, previous studies of the regional seismic activity and seismic ground motion hazard (the latter using a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, PSHA) have considered very broad source zone regions, in which uniform levels of seismic activity have been assumed. The present paper further scrutinises this broad source zone (BSZ) approach by adopting a novel expanding circular disc (ECD) method to determine the rates of earthquake recurrence. Such a method is intended to counter-check previously developed models by determining earthquake scenario events in terms of magnitude–distance (M–R) pairs or combinations, having defined values of average return period. Unlike the BSZ approach, the ECD method specifically accounts for the supposed variations in the seismic activity rates between events in the near-field and the far-field of Hong Kong.The form of the developed method is particularly suited to the determination of design-level earthquake ground motions for bedrock sites, since it assumes a directionally-independent attenuation model as described in the companion paper. It is found that, whilst the BSZ approach may indicate the overall average levels of hazard that are representative of the South China region as a whole, it does not capture the large disparity in seismic activity rates between near-field and far-field events. This important feature is expected to have a significant impact upon engineering assessments of the seismic safety of structures in Hong Kong and elsewhere in the South China region. For example, it is found that for events with M≥6, the seismic activity rate (normalised by time and area) in the very far-field is around 3.5 times larger than in the near-field and medium-field of Hong Kong. The resulting design M-R combinations, covering a range of return periods from 70 to 2500 years, are limited, for very long return periods and for distant events, by the maximum credible earthquake (MCE) magnitude. Intensive research to determine this seismic hazard parameter is recommended, in order to refine further the results of the ECD analysis, which presently conservatively assumes the MCE to range between M=6 in the near-field of Hong Kong to M=8 in the very far-field, at distances greater than 280 km from Hong Kong.  相似文献   

基于POT模型的昆仑山地区地震统计特征分析     

任晴晴  赵宜宾  钱小仕  李科长  张艳芳 《震灾防御技术》2022,17(3):529-538

极值统计是研究较少发生但一旦发生即产生极大影响的随机事件的有效方法。本文以地震活动频繁的昆仑山地区作为研究区域,建立了基于广义帕累托分布的超阈值（POT）模型,并讨论了该地区若干地震活动性参数,包括强震震级分布、潜在震级上限、强震平均复发间隔、一定周期内的强震发震概率、一定时期内的重现水平和超定值重现震级。经统计分析得到:该地区震级阈值选定为M_S5.5,超阈值期望震级为M_S6.81,潜在震级上限高达M_S9.08,M_S8.0的平均复发间隔仅为66.8年,未来3年该地区发生M_S5.5～M_S6.5的概率在80%以上,百年重现水平即可达到历史最大震级M_S8.1。  相似文献   

天津近海海域隐伏断裂地震危险性评价     

刘红艳  陈宇坤  闫成国  杨菲 《震灾防御技术》2013,8(2):146-155

以天津市近海海域断裂探测资料为基础,通过对海河断裂海域段和海一断裂的地质构造、第四纪活动性、深部构造、构造应力场与形变场以及地震活动性等的研究,综合判定了海河断裂海域段和海一断裂的活动性与构造特征.利用地震地质、历史与现今地震活动性资料,建立了按500a归算的震级-频度关系模型,根据天津地区的最大震级上限Mu与a/b的关系,计算出了海河断裂海域段和海一断裂的最大震级.采用泊松概率模型,估算出了海河断裂海域段和海一断裂未来50-200a发生地震的最大震级、发生概率以及复发周期等定量参数.  相似文献