Hazard area and probability of volcanic disruption of the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, USA     

Chih-Hsiang Ho  Eugene I. Smith  Deborah L. Keenan 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2006,69(2):117-123

Models that calculate the probability that a new volcano or a dike from a nearby eruption will intersect the footprint of the proposed high-level nuclear waste repository are generalized based on a conceptual model developed for the space transportation industry. The proposed hazard area, defined such that every new eruption that occurs there will disrupt the repository, plays a fundamental role in developing probability models. This hazard area is used not only to hedge the uncertainties in predicting patterns of future volcanic activity, but also to account for the characteristics of a new eruption during the post-closure performance period of an underground geologic repository. The paper discusses the advantages of probability comparisons, capabilities of conservativeness measurements and expert-elicitation on model parameters, and the implications to the proposed repository.Paper funded by a contract from the Agency for Nuclear Projects, State of Nevada, USA.  相似文献   

Nine unusually large tsunami deposits from the past 4000 years at Kiritappu marsh along the southern Kuril Trench     

Futoshi Nanayama  Ryuta Furukawa  Kiyoyuki Shigeno  Akito Makino  Yuji Soeda  Yaeko Igarashi 《Sedimentary Geology》2007,200(3-4):275-294

Large earthquakes along the Kuril subduction zone in northern Japan are known to have caused damaging tsunami, although there is a little information on historical earthquakes and tsunami in this area because no documents exist before the 19th century that might refer to tsunami events. To determine the likely timing and size of future events we need information on their recurrence intervals and to do this for the prehistoric past we have investigated sediments located in the Kiritappu marsh in eastern Hokaido that we interpret as laid down by tsunami. Using reliable multiple lines of evidence from sedimentological, geomorphological, micropaleontological, and chronological results, we identify 13 tsunami sands. Two of these lie within a peat bed above a historical tephra, Ta-a (AD 1739); the upper one probably corresponds to the AD 1843 Tempo Tokachi-oki earthquake (M 8.2) tsunami, and the lower to either the AD 1952 Tokachi-oki earthquake (M 8.2) tsunami or the AD 1960 Chilean earthquake (M 9.5) tsunami. Underlying are 11 prehistoric tsunami sand beds (nine large sand beds and two smaller sand beds) deposited during the past 4000 years. Because of the wide spatial distribution of the large sand beds, and inundation distances inland of between 1200 to 3000 m, we suggest that they record unusually large tsunamis along the Kuril subduction zone. According to our analyses, these tsunami sands were derived from the coastal area and, although they do not show clear graded bedding, they commonly have gradational upper boundaries and erosional bases and include internal sedimentary structures such as plane beds, dunes, and current ripples, reflecting bedload transportation. Based on our results we calculate the recurrence interval of unusually large earthquakes (probably M 8.6) along the Kuril subduction zone as about 365–553 years and estimate the youngest large event to have occurred in the 17th century.  相似文献   

Sensitivity analysis of the parameters of earthquake recurrence time power law scaling     

Abdelhak Talbi  Fumio Yamazaki 《Journal of Seismology》2009,13(1):53-72

The stability of the power law scaling of earthquake recurrence time distribution in a given space–time window is investigated, taking into account the magnitude of completeness and the effective starting time of aftershock sequences in earthquake catalogs from Southern California and Japan. A new method is introduced for sampling at different distances from a network of target events. This method allows the recurrence times to be sampled many times on the same area. Two power laws with unknown exponents are assumed to govern short- and long-recurrence-time ranges. This assumption is developed analytically and shown to imply simple correlation between these power laws. In practice, the results show that this correlation structure is not satisfied for short magnitude cutoffs (m _c = 2.5, 3.5, 4.5), and hence the recurrence time distribution departs from the power law scaling. The scaling parameters obtained from the stack of the distributions corresponding to different magnitude thresholds are quite different for different regions of study. It is also found that significantly different scaling parameters adjust the distribution for different magnitude thresholds. In particular, the power law exponents decrease when the magnitude cutoff increases, resulting in a slower decrease of the recurrence time distribution, especially for short time ranges. For example, in the case of Japan, the exponent p₂ of the power law scaling at large recurrence times follows roughly the relation: , where m _c is the magnitude cutoff. In case of Southern California, it is shown that Weibull distribution provides a better alternative fit to the data for moderate and large time scales.  相似文献   

基于广义帕累托分布的马尼拉海沟俯冲带地震危险性估计     

田建伟  刘哲  任鲁川 《地震》2017,37(1):158-165

选取马尼拉海沟俯冲带作为潜源区, 基于广义帕累托分布, 通过对一定时段内超过某一阈值的震级数据进行拟合, 建立该潜源区地震危险性估计模型, 估计强震重现水平和震级上限, 并对估计结果的不确定性进行了分析, 得到马尼拉海沟俯冲带震级上限为9.0级, 10 a、 50 a、 100 a、 200 a马尼拉海沟俯冲带的震级重现水平期望值分别为7.1级、 7.6级、 7.7级、 7.9级。  相似文献   

板内大震原地准周期复发间隔的概率分布   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文

甘卫军  刘百篪  黄雅虹 《地震工程学报》1999,21(1):7-16

以中国大陆大震原地复发资料为基础,采用比较合理的方法确定了板内大震在其活跃期内原地准确周期复发的概率密度函数,所得结果表明,板内大震在重复行为上具有板间特征地震相类似的分布特征,两者的差异在于,板内大震复发间隔的变分系数ＣＯＶ为０．２６,而板间特征地震的该值为０．２１５,即板内大震的重复间隔相对稍显离散。  相似文献   

Calculation of Probability of Cloud-Free Lines-of-Sightat Given Heights in Foshan,China     

李昀英  孙立潭 《大气科学进展》1999,(2)

1.IntroductionWhetherornottherearecloudsonalineaswelookingatapointonthegroundfromapointintilespaceorinreverseorderisimportantforsuchpurposeasdeterminingtheutilityofopticalandinfraredsearchingandtrackingsystems.ProbabilityofCloud--FreeLines--of--Sight...  相似文献   

安宁河断裂带小相岭段古地震的新证据及最晚事件的年代   总被引：25，自引：5，他引：20       下载免费PDF全文

闻学泽  杜平山  龙德雄 《地震地质》2000,22(1):1-8

沿安宁河断裂带小相岭段发现了古地震的地表破裂遗迹。在两个场地开挖了横跨主断裂的探槽 ,以研究这里的晚全新世古地震。结果表明 ,在最近的大约 2 30 0a中 ,该断裂段至少发生过 4次伴有地表破裂的古地震事件 ,平均复发间隔为 6 0 0～ 70 0a。这里的最晚事件很可能发生在公元 15世纪 ,并且有可能发生在公元 14 80年。最晚事件沿地表断层产生了 3m的平均左旋位错 ,这相当于一次矩震级为 7 5± 0 3的走滑型大地震的同震平均位错量  相似文献   

大地震的强余震活动持续时间和重复时间   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

傅征祥 《地震地质》1990,12(1):15-20

1966—1981年中国大陆华北和西南地区发生了10次大地震(M_s≥6.9),其强余震活动持续时间有明显差异,从1天到1000天不等。它们似乎与主震震级大小无关,却依赖于不同主震的重复时间,即较长的持续时间对应较长的重复时间。基于地震力学的观点,较长的重复时间意味着地震断面静止接触时间较长,断面摩擦强度将增大,产生数量较多和面积较大的强固点,所以,有可能在断面主破裂之后,观测到较长持续时间的强余震活动(强固点破裂  相似文献   

基于最大熵原理的台风统计预报          下载免费PDF全文

冯利华  张萍 《海洋科学》2003,27(3):47-51

台风以最无序的方式在沿海各地登陆，意味着台风熵达到了极大值。在给定的约束条件下，当台风熵取极大值时，台风强度是一种指数分布。根据最大熵原理和1949年以来中国登陆台风的实测资料，揭示了台风强度的分布形式，提出了台风复发期的概念，这对登陆台风的统计预报有所裨益。  相似文献   

美国爱达荷州中部洛斯特河断层麦凯段晚第四纪断层陡坎与地震          下载免费PDF全文

虢顺民  廖玉华  李玉龙 《地震地质》1987,9(3):71

根据断层位错和地貌位置,麦凯段断层陡坎分为三组,它们是三次史前地震的产物。根据位错量和陡坎长度对比,史前地震的震级大约为7级。利用扩散方程模拟史前7级地震发生的重复时间间隔是5—11千年  相似文献