二台断裂南段的第四纪活动   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

柏美祥  尹光华 《内陆地震》1991,5(4):289-295

二台断裂南段在乌伦古河流域分叉、折尾,显示出破裂末端特征。据断层活动资料,自晚更新世中期以来南段有5次活动,主要为右旋逆走滑活动,末端为右旋正走滑。水平错动幅度达3个量级4个梯度,最大达350m。1984—1988年形变测量资料表明该段目前正以2.1mm/年的速率作左旋旷动。各种古地震活动标志表明南段大震平均复现期为3500±290年。  相似文献   

渭河盆地地震发生的统计分析     

许俊奇 《内陆地震》1991,5(1):36-41

利用极值理论、最大熵原理、周期图分析、震级—频度关系等六种方法分别讨论渭河盆地地震发生的规律性,得出预测结果:(1)渭河盆地今后一百年内(即2078年前后)有可能发生Ms≥5.0级的地震,而发生Ms>5.5级地震的可能性较小;(2)Ms=5.0—5.5级地震的复发周期分别为67年和154年左右;(3)自1400年以来,5.0级以上的地震活动存在着510±10年、250±10年、120±10年、80±10年和170±10年的主要周期。  相似文献   

陕西省及汾渭地震带的发震概率   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

袁志祥  徐壮 《高原地震》1992,(2)

本文用韦布尔(Weibull)分布对陕西省及汾渭地震带的中强地震活动进行概率统计分析,得到所研究地区的中强地震平均复发周期和发震概率。通过陕西省及汾渭地震带的韦布尔概率模型可以获得任一预测时间内的发震概率。  相似文献   

小江西支断裂的滑动速率与强震重复周期   总被引：7，自引：3，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文

陈睿  李玶 《地震地质》1988,10(2):1

本文通过对各种断错地质地貌现象及被错体年龄的分析,估算出小江西支断裂在第四纪、晚更新世及全新世以来的滑动速率分别为6.7毫米/年、7.0毫米/年及6.4毫水/年。在此基础上,结合历史地震及古地震活动讨论了强震的重复周期和断裂的活动特征,结果表明小江西支断裂的活动以重复错动发生强烈地震为主要特征,强震在断裂带上同一地段的平均重复周期为900年左右,沿整个断裂带的重复周期大于330年  相似文献   

Revised seismic history of the El Pilar fault,Northeastern Venezuela,from the Cariaco 1997 earthquake and recent preliminary paleoseismic results     

Franck A. Audemard 《Journal of Seismology》2007,11(3):311-326

In light of the July 9, 1997, Cariaco earthquake, it is clearly understood now that damage in the city of Cumaná – located in northeastern Venezuela and frequently destroyed by the largest earthquakes since the first recorded event in 1530 – is strongly enhanced by poor soil conditions that, in turn, are responsible for site amplification and widespread earthquake-induced effects. Therefore, most previous macroseismic studies of historical earthquakes must be revaluated because those localized high-intensity values at Cumaná surely led to the misestimation of past epicenters. Preliminary paleoseismic results, gathered at three exploratory trenches dug across the surface break of the Cariaco 1997 earthquake in 1998, allow us to associate the 1684 earthquake with this recently ruptured fault segment that extends between the towns of San Antonio del Golfo and Río Casanay (roughly between the two gulfs of Cariaco and Paria, state of Sucre). Other major results from the reassessment of the seismic history of this fault are: (a) the 1766 event seems to have generated in a different source to the El Pilar fault because the size of the felt area suggests that it is an intermediate-depth earthquake; (b) damage to Cumaná produced by the 1797 event suggests that this was a local earthquake, perhaps equivalent to the 1929 earthquake, which ruptured for some 30 km just east of Cumaná into the Gulf of Cariaco; and (c) seismogenic association of the 1530 and 1853 earthquakes still remains unclear but it is very likely that these ruptures occurred offshore, as suggested by the rather large tsunami waves that both events have generated, placing their hypocenters west of Cumaná in the Cariaco Trough. This reassessment also sheds light into the El Pilar fault segmentation and the behavior of its seismogenic barriers through time.  相似文献   

Crustal seismicity in central Chile     

S. Barrientos  E. Vera  P. Alvarado  T. Monfret 《Journal of South American Earth Sciences》2004,16(8):455

Both the genesis and rates of activity of shallow intraplate seismic activity in central Chile are poorly understood, mainly because of the lack of association of seismicity with recognizable fault features at the surface and a poor record of seismic activity. The goal of this work is to detail the characteristics of seismicity that takes place in the western flank of the Andes in central Chile. This region, located less than 100 km from Santiago, has been the site of earthquakes with magnitudes up to 6.9, including several 5+ magnitude shocks in recent years. Because most of the events lie outside the Central Chile Seismic Network, at distances up to 60 km to the east, it is essential to have adequate knowledge of the velocity structure in the Andean region to produce the highest possible quality of epicentral locations. For this, a N–S refraction line, using mining blasts of the Disputada de Las Condes open pit mine, has been acquired. These blasts were detected and recorded as far as 180 km south of the mine. Interpretation of the travel times indicates an upper crustal model consisting of three layers: 2.2-, 6.7-, and 6.1-km thick, overlying a half space; their associated P wave velocities are 4.75–5.0 (gradient), 5.8–6.0 (gradient), 6.2, and 6.6 km/s, respectively.Hypocentral relocation of earthquakes in 1986–2001, using the newly developed velocity model, reveals several regions of concentrated seismicity. One clearly delineates the fault zone and extensions of the strike-slip earthquake that took place in September 1987 at the source of the Cachapoal River. Other regions of activity are near the San José volcano, the source of the Maipo River, and two previously recognized lineaments that correspond to the southern extension of the Pocuro fault and Olivares River. A temporary array of seismographs, installed in the high Maipo River (1996) and San José volcano (1997) regions, established the hypocentral location of events with errors of less than 1 km. These events are clustered along no particular lineament approximately 25 km away from the San José and Maipo volcanoes. Recurrence intervals, based on a frequency magnitude relationship for lower magnitude events, indicate that earthquakes with magnitudes of 4.7 and 7 have a repeat time of 1 and 1200 years, respectively. Focal mechanisms of the two largest events indicate horizontal maximum and minimum compressive stresses with σ₁ varying from a NW–SE orientation in the north to E–W at the southern extreme.  相似文献   

自回归模型的最优定阶及其在长期预报中的应用   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

胡基福  周庆满 《应用气象学报》1994,5(2):196-202

对自回归模型的5种定阶方法（FPE、AIC、BIC、L1和L2准则）作了概述，并应用上述方法对青岛月平均温度序列进行了自回归模型定阶试验。结果指出，FPE、AIC和L1准则选择自回归模型的阶数较高，L2准则选择自回归的阶数为中等，BIC准则确定的阶数最低。文章还提出了一个应用自回归模型递推预报月平均温度的方法，预报实践证明，由BIC准则产生的低阶自回归模型的效果优于其它方法。  相似文献   

2020年阿拉斯加Mw7.8地震震源特征及邻区地震危险性分析     

周云  李予青  王卫民  王洵  潘正洋  何建坤 《地球物理学报》2021,64(2):498-506

2020年7月22日,在美国阿拉斯加半岛南部发生了一次Mw7.8地震.本文利用远场地震波形记录与近场GPS台站同震位移资料,反演了本次地震震源机制和震源破裂过程.结果表明:阿拉斯加地震为一震源深度为23 km,地震断层倾角约17°,破裂面上最大的同震位移达到914 cm的逆冲型地震.由此得到该地震的地震矩为6.94X1...  相似文献   

汶川M_S8.0级地震发震构造大震复发间隔估算   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

谢富仁  张永庆  张效亮 《震灾防御技术》2008,3(4):337-344

汶川Ms8．0级地震发生在青藏高原东缘著名的龙门山断裂带上,造成了中央断裂和前山断裂共约330kin的地震地表破裂带。初步研究表明,龙门山断裂带上大震复发可能属特征地震模式。结合龙门山断裂带的地震地质情况和汶川地震地表破裂带的基本参数综合分析,本文从地质学、地震学和GPS数据分析三个方面评估了龙门山断裂带的大震复发周期。结果表明,上述三种方法获得的龙门山断裂带Ms8．0级地震的复发间隔分别为：3185a、170（02264a和4310a,平均为3000a左右：Ms7．5级地震的平均复发间隔为1000a左右;Ms7．0级地震的平均复发间隔为500a左右。这些结果与其他学者的研究结果相比,相差不多,基本反映了龙门山断裂带的地震能量水平和累积速度。  相似文献   

2010年玉树地震的构造环境、历史地震活动及其复发周期估计   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

任俊杰  谢富仁  刘冬英  张爱武 《震灾防御技术》2010,5(2):228-233

2010年4月14日青海省玉树发生了7.1级地震,造成了严重的人员伤亡和重大的经济损失。发生该地震的甘孜-玉树断裂是川滇菱形块体的边界断裂,晚第四纪左旋走滑运动强烈。震中所处的甘孜-玉树断裂中段,震前历史地震活动与东南段相比较弱。本文利用玉树地震的基本参数资料和地震破裂反演结果,综合历史地震法和地震矩率法估算出了玉树地震的复发周期约为200年。  相似文献