佛山地区有限高度视线无云概率的计算     

李昀英  孙立潭 《气象科学》1998,18(4):361-368

本文绘出了适用于世界任何地区的地面到任意有限高度上视线无云概率的计算方法和视线无云持续概率与再现概率的计算方法,并利用我国佛山地区30年的地面常规云观测资料计算了佛山地区有限高度视线无云概率、视线无云持续概率与视线无云再现概率,得到以下结论：（1）视线无云概率随高度的增加而减小,随视角的增大而增大。（2）视线无云持续概率和视线无云再现概率随高度的增加和滞后时间的延长而减小。（3）视线无云再现概率总等于或大于视线无云持续概率。  相似文献   

Simulation of summer storms of differing recurrence intervals in a semiarid environment using a kinematic routing scheme     

Hazel Faulkner 《水文研究》1992,6(4):397-416

A kinematic flood routing procedure has been devised for a small dendritic headwater gully network on the Western slope of Colorado. the program is spatially-distributed, incorporating lateral inflows from 103 field sites on the network for which channel geometry variables are known. This model, in which a lateral inflow algorithm for the sideslopes between each channel site is convoluted into a Freeze-type (1978) numerical scheme, is fully developed in this paper. Although the field basis of the lateral inflow algorithm has been tested elsewhere (Faulkner, 1990), sensitivity tests were needed for the roughness and hillslope velocity estimates used in the routing procedure. After these successful tests, a suitably precalibrated run of the model was compared with a field-monitored runoff event on the watershed, and results again were encouraging. However, peak attentuation downstream was more pronounced in reality than on the simulation, so the model was also modified by inclusion of allowances for transmission loss. the tendency that the model had displayed for peak size attenuation downstream was considerably enhanced. Using the model, the geomorphic role of the flashfloods which affect the watershed in the summer months is briefly considered by applying the model to existing records of local summer storm rainfall events as a basis for event simulation. These simulations show that downstream attenuation of the flood wave on concave networks in steep semiarid terrain was likely to be a common occurrence, possibly resulting in down-net deposition and differences in geomorphic behaviour between upstream and downstream sites. the discussion is finally broadened to consider the relative importance of ‘common’ as compared to ‘freak’ watershed events in maintaining these differences.  相似文献   

华北地区未来强震概率统计分析     

郑建常  华爱军  周翠英 《高原地震》2005,17(4):18-23

应用泊松模型的极值分布对华北地区的地震活动趋势进行估计和分析，结果表明，2008年前华北地区发生6级以上地震的危险性较大；2005年地震活动短期内可能还会持续目前较弱的态势，但未来1～2年内华北地区地震活动很有可能明显增强。  相似文献   

地震时空影响域、复发间隔和有效孕震时间   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王绳祖  张宗淳 《中国地震》2001,17(4):364-377

研究表明,地城的时空影响域（影响范围）在t（时间）－r（距离）坐标上具有双曲线型的边界曲线,t=0时的最大影响半径为r0,r=0时的最大影响时间（即原地复发间隔)为t0。根据我国华北,西北,青藏和西南地区后继地震相对于无发地震的时,距分布状况,经优化拟合和统计分析,确定了地震时空影响域的优化边界曲线及90％置信度边界曲线。以三维（时间－距离－震级）的“地震时空影响域”概念取代一维（时间）或二维（时间－震级）的“复发间隔”概念,为认识地震活动涨落起伏的实质,估计潜在震源的有效震孕震时间和改进地城的中长期预测提供了新的思路。  相似文献   

龙陵-瑞丽断裂北段晚第四纪活动性特征及强震复发间隔1     

杜义  张效亮  黄学猛  杜宇本  谢富仁 《中国地震研究》2013,27(3):344-357

野外地质地貌调查表明,龙陵-瑞丽断裂（南支）北段是以左旋走滑为主兼具一定正断分量的区域性活动断裂。断裂晚更新世以来的平均水平滑动速率为2.2mm/a,平均垂直滑动速率为0. 6mm/a;全新世以来的平均水平滑动速率为1.8—3.0mm/a,平均垂直滑动速率为0.5mm/a。断裂在晚更新世以来的滑动速率在不同的时间尺度上变化不大,反映出该断裂晚更新世以来的活动强度比较稳定。利用Poisson模型、Lognormal模型、BPT模型三种概率模型计算获得未来50a强震发震概率分别是：6.32%、0.08%、0.05%;三种模型分别取权重0.28、0.36、0.36,获得龙陵-瑞丽断裂北段未来50a特征地震发震概率为1.82%。  相似文献