知识不确定条件下的海外保障基地自然风险情景模拟评估     

姜德良  张韧  葛珊珊 《海洋通报》2017,36(5):504-537

针对海外保障基地面临的自然风险,在风险辨识基础上,构建了风险评价指标体系和海外保障基地自然风险的贝叶斯网络评估模型,并进行了情景模拟下的量化实验评估。针对目前贝叶斯网络评估过程中的群决策和决策偏好问题,引入了犹豫层次分析思想来优化计算指标风险隶属度,改进了评估过程中的客观性和适用性。  相似文献   

King Canute muses in the South Seas: Why aren’t Pacific Islands transitioning to low carbon sea transport futures?     

《Marine Policy》2017

Transition to low carbon sea transport is a logical response to the extreme dependency of the Pacific Islands region on imported fossil fuel, its significant vulnerability to the effects of climate change and the critical shipping needs of Pacific Island countries (PICs). Building on previous work in low carbon sea transport in the Pacific, this paper further considers the barriers to achieving such transition by assessing, through a ‘post-Paris Agreement’ lens, the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) submitted by PICs and contrasting these to the near total lack of investment and planning for low carbon transition in the transport sector with the parallel occurrence in the electricity sector where ~USD 2 billion of donor investment is deployed or queued despite electricity using only ~20% of fossil fuel across the region. Consistent with recent international studies, inadequate and inappropriate financing and policy have been identified as dominant transition barriers for low carbon sea transport development in PICs. This paper further examines the regional level barriers to policy development, and finds them inhibited by the silo nature of the major regional actors. The implications that the Paris Agreement has for climate financing to support the essential research and capacity development needed to underpin a successful low carbon sea transport transition strategy at any useful scale and speed are also considered in this paper.  相似文献   

海洋油气开发工程环境影响评价特点浅析          下载免费PDF全文

王晨 《海洋开发与管理》2017,34(9):90-94

相比陆上油气开发工程和其他海洋工程而言,海洋油气开发工程有其自身的特点,海洋油气开发工程环境影响评价应关注的内容与其他工程有所不同。文章通过分析海洋油气开发工程的特点以及对环境影响的特点,提出海洋油气开发工程环境影响评价要点,即包括施工期悬浮泥沙及钻井液钻屑排放对海洋生态环境的影响、运营期含油生产水排放对海洋生态环境的影响、工程建设对海洋环境敏感目标的影响、溢油事故环境风险分析、污染防治及生态保护措施,并针对目前海洋油气开发工程环境影响评价存在的问题提出改进建议。  相似文献   

我国海洋经济劳动生产率区域差异与演变分析          下载免费PDF全文

计利群  狄乾斌 《海洋开发与管理》2017,34(9):65-71

劳动生产率差异是导致区域经济发展差异的重要原因,提高劳动生产率是促进经济增长的有效手段。分析我国海洋经济的劳动生产率的区域差异与演变对发展我国海洋经济具有积极意义。在分析我国海洋经济劳动生产率的特点基础上,文章运用基尼系数和泰尔指数计算我国沿海地区1997—2014年海洋经济劳动生产率区域差异,并进行σ-收敛性检验,结果表明区域差异呈现倒V字形走势,1997—2005年呈现σ-发散,2005—2014年呈现σ-收敛。采用泰尔指数分解方法测度表明,环渤海、长三角、泛珠三角三大经济区海洋经济劳动生产率地区内差异占总体差异的比重达80%以上,而地区间差异比重较小,环渤海经济区地区内差异最大。分阶段对我国各沿海地区海洋经济的劳动生产率进行排名并观察演变过程。提出提高我国海洋经济劳动生产率的相关建议:一是努力提高海洋经济全要素生产率;二是促进海洋产业合理布局,努力提高传统海洋产业劳动生产率;三是统筹区域海洋经济发展。  相似文献   

Assessment of Urban Air Pollution and Spatial Spillover Effects in China: Cases of 113 Key Environmental Protection Cities     

GONG Zezhou  ZHANG Xiaoping 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2017,8(6):584-594

With rapid urbanization and energy consumption, environmental pollution and degradation have become increasingly serious problems in China. At the beginning of 2013, China implemented new ambient air quality standards (GB 3095-2012) in which the concentration of six pollutants including PM_2.5, ozone, carbon monoxide, PM₁₀, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide were monitored. This study gathered annual air pollutant concentration data for the six pollutants in 113 key environmental protection cites throughout China in 2014 and 2015 to explain spatial patterns of urban air pollution. Based on the Kernel density estimation method, spatial hotspots of air pollution were illustrated through which spatial cluster of each pollutants could be plotted. By employing an entropy evaluation system, urban air quality was assessed in terms of the six atmospheric pollutants. We conclude that, in general, CO and SO₂ were two important pollutants in most Chinese cities, but this varied greatly among cities. The assessment results indicate that cities with the worst air quality were mainly located in northern and central provinces, dominantly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area. Regression modeling showed that a combination of meteorological factors and human-related determinants, to say specifically, industrialization and urbanization factors, greatly influenced urban air quality variation in China. Results from spatial lag regression modeling confirmed that air pollution existed obvious spatial spillover effects among key cities. The spatial interdependence effects of urban air quality means that Chinese municipal governments should strengthen regional cooperation and deepen bilateral collaboration in terms of air regulation and pollution prevention.  相似文献   

基于灰色关联分析法的松辽盆地CO_2地质储存适宜性评价     

宋铁军  万玉玉  张文强  饶文迪  孟婧莹  范基娇  高睿敏 《地质通报》2017,36(10):1874-1883

松辽盆地是中国主要的能源基地,随着中国振兴东北老工业基地政策的实施,如何应对工业和经济发展带来的CO_2排放量的增加,将成为亟需解决的问题。在盆地内进行CO_2地质储存将成为盆地内解决该问题的主要技术选择之一。以松辽盆地为研究对象,在深入分析松辽盆地CO_2地质储存条件的基础上,从储存规模、储存安全性和社会环境风险及经济适宜性4个方面综合考虑,构建了由16个指标组成的松辽盆地CO_2地质储存适宜性评价指标体系,利用灰色关联分析法对松辽盆地33个二级构造单元进行了盆地级适宜性评价工作,评价结果为进一步场地级目标靶区的筛选提供了科技支撑。  相似文献   

四川盆地理论CO_2地质利用与封存潜力评估     

刁玉杰  朱国维  金晓琳  张超  李旭峰 《地质通报》2017,36(6):1088-1095

结合CO_2地质利用与封存技术机理,在国际权威潜力评估公式的基础上,系统地提出了适合中国地质背景的次盆地尺度CO_2封存潜力评估方法及关键参数取值。同时,以四川盆地为例,依次开展了枯竭油田地质封存与CO_2强化石油开采、枯竭气田与CO_2强化采气、不可采煤层地质封存与CO_2驱替煤层气,以及咸水层地质封存技术的CO_2地质封存潜力。结果表明,四川盆地利用深部咸水层与枯竭天然气田CO_2地质封存潜力最大,期望值分别达154.20×10~8t和53.73×10~8t。其中,枯竭天然气田因成藏条件好、勘探程度高、基础建设完善,为四川盆地及其周边利用枯竭气田CO_2地质封存技术实现低碳减排提供了早期示范机会。CO_2地质利用与封存潜力评估方法,对进一步开展全国次盆地尺度理论封存潜力评估与工程规划具有重要意义。  相似文献   

龙门山和相邻地域航磁场特征与汶川大地震   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

闫亚芬  滕吉文  阮小敏  胡国泽 《地球物理学报》2016,59(1):197-214

本文应用化极、水平及垂向导数、向上延拓、视磁化强度填图及磁性界面反演等方法处理了龙门山及相邻地域最新的航空磁测数据,分析了龙门山及相邻地域的航磁异常展布特征.研究结果表明:1)龙门山造山带与其东、西两侧可划分为三个磁异常区:松潘—甘孜磁异常区、龙门山负磁异常带、四川盆地磁异常区;三个区、带的地壳介质磁性结构存在明显差异.2)根据该区航空磁异常场的分布特征分别研究了,松潘—甘孜地块、龙门山造山带和四川地块的磁场特征.3)除识别前人识别的断层外,还推断鲜水河ES延伸甘洛—雷波北断裂作为四川盆地与滇西的界带.4)航空磁异常,磁性体上、下界面及磁源体深度的空间分布特征与汶川MS8.0大地震及芦山地震发生相关.  相似文献   

Ecology of water mite assemblages in Panama – First data on water mites (Acari,Hydrachnidia) as bioindicators in the assessment of biological integrity of neotropical streams     

《Limnologica》2016

The ecological integrity of freshwater ecosystems is regularly examined through assessment of their macroinvertebrate assemblages. The various methods used in such biomonitoring all have one characteristic in common – the neglect of water mites. Even though this group perfectly fulfills all necessary requisites for successful bioindicators, these invertebrates are either completely ignored or lumped together as “Acari”.This study, for the first time, uses water mites (Hydrachnidia) as bioindicators in the Neotropics to compare the anthropogenic stress in 15 streams at three different levels of contamination (pristine, rural, urban). In total, 4371 water mite specimens, belonging to 31 genera and 14 families, were collected.Diversity, abundance, and richness of water mite assemblages were significantly reduced with increasing levels of contamination. These differences were clearest in the dry season. Atractidella turned out to be, by far, the most tolerant water mite genus, having the greatest abundance at the most contaminated sites. In contrast, Pseudotorrenticola was found only in pristine waters, while Hydrodroma, Limnesia, Koenikea, Torrenticola, Monatractides and the family Aturidae showed clear preferences for pristine waters.Our data show, that water mites, identified to genus level, are well suited for water quality assessment in neotropical lowland streams, clearly distinguishing different levels of contamination/anthropogenic stress.  相似文献   

Improved performance‐based seismic assessment of buildings by utilizing Bayesian statistics          下载免费PDF全文

Omid Esmaili  Lisa Grant Ludwig  Farzin Zareian 《地震工程与结构动力学》2016,45(4):581-597

This paper addresses two important issues of concern to practicing engineers and researchers alike in application of performance‐based seismic assessment (PBSA) methodology on buildings: (i) the number of ground motion records required to exercise PBSA—current practice (FEMA P‐58‐1) requires eleven or more pairs of motions for this purpose, and (ii) the time and effort associated with performing the number of nonlinear response history analyses required to exercise PBSA. We present a method for exercising of PBSA that employs classical linear modal analysis to develop a first estimate (i.e., a priori) of probability distribution of loss, followed by utilizing Bayesian statistics to update this estimate using estimates of loss obtained by utilizing a small number of nonlinear response history analyses of a detailed model of the building (i.e., posterior). The proposed technique is used to assess the distribution of monetary loss of two case studies, a 4‐story reinforced concrete moment‐resisting frame building and a 20‐story steel moment‐resisting frame building, both located in Los Angeles, for a ground motion hazard with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The efficiency of the proposed PBSA method is demonstrated by showing the similarity between the distribution of monetary loss at each story of case study buildings obtained from the traditional/sophisticated PBSA methodology and the proposed PBSA method in this study. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献