区域自然灾害风险分析研究进展   总被引：34，自引：1，他引：33  

任鲁川 《地球科学进展》1999,14(3):242-246

讨论了区域自然灾害风险的含义,指出了保险与灾害研究中对风险含义的不同理解,着重说明可能性风险概念,综述了区域灾害风险分析的内容及区域灾害风险估算的数学模型,指出风险分析可归结为风险辨识,风险估算,风险评价三个环节,风险估算数学模型的演进可概括为极值风险模型,概率风险模型,可能性风险模型三个阶段,着重介绍区域自然灾害风险分析的可能性风险模型。  相似文献   

生活垃圾卫生填埋地质环境(LFGE)效应的系统分析方法研究——以上海浦东新区为例     

陈岳 《地质灾害与环境保护》1999,(Z1)

在系统分析总结国内外本领域的研究发展现状的基础上,以上海浦东新区城市生活垃圾卫生填埋处理为研究背景,首次提出ＬＦＧＥ效应系统分析方法的完整理论和应用体系,体系主要包括：ＬＦＧＥ效应的主控因素特征分析;在垃圾淋滤试验、有关土的工程性能试验和反映运移转化特征的土柱试验基础上的作用机制研究;具单元、组合、整体模拟及压实效应模拟功能的模拟计算研究;在不确定性条件存在下,随机模拟研究和以贝叶斯决策分析理论为基础的ＬＦＧＥ效应决策分析技术经济转换研究  相似文献   

Mesotrione Herbicide: Efficiency,Effects, and Fate in the Environment after 15 Years of Agricultural Use     

《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2017,45(9)

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Preparing for the unprecedented — Towards quantitative oil risk assessment in the Arctic marine areas     

Maisa Nevalainen  Inari Helle  Jarno Vanhatalo 《Marine pollution bulletin》2017,114(1):90-101

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基于贝叶斯方法的深层充电效应风险模型评估          下载免费PDF全文

李程  陈东 《地球物理学报》2019,62(6):1991-2000

高能电子穿透航天器并在其内部沉积电荷从而引发深层充电效应,是导致卫星故障的重要因素之一.为了评估深层充电效应诱发卫星异常的风险,本文基于贝叶斯方法,使用一颗地球同步轨道卫星的异常数据和GOES-8卫星的电子通量探测数据,计算了不同能量阈值及累积时间的电子注量、不同卫星配置下模拟仿真的沉积电荷,并分别与卫星异常建立一系列概率风险模型.本文从模型中随机抽样得到模拟异常,并与实测异常构造混淆矩阵以评估模型拟合优度,结果表明1.0MeV电子3日累积注量-卫星异常概率风险模型为该卫星最优模型.本文利用最优模型对该卫星深层充电效应风险进行了计算,在1.0MeV电子3日累积注量达到2.0×10~(10)cm~(-2)·sr~(-1)时,该卫星发生深层充电异常的平均后验概率为27%,且95%最小可信值为22%.根据最优模型,我们对该卫星最可能导致异常的部件的材料和结构等特征做出了推断.  相似文献   

Developing land use scenario dynamics model by the integration of system dynamics model and cellular automata model   总被引：8，自引：1，他引：8  

HE Chunyang  SHI Peijun  CHEN Jin  Li Xiaobing  PAN Yaozhong  LI Jing  LI Yuechen & LI Jinggang Key Laboratory of Environmental Change  Natural Disaster  Ministry of Education of China  Beijing Normal University  College of Resources Science & Technology  Beijing Normal University  Beijing  China 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2005,48(11):1979-1989

Models of land use change are useful tools for un-derstanding the analysis of the cause and conse-quences of land use changes, assessing the impacts of land use system on ecological system and supporting land use planning and policy[1,2]. Modeling land use scenario changes and its potential impacts on the structure and function of the ecosystem in the typical regions are regarded as one of the good ways to un-derstand the interactive mechanism between land use system and ecological system[3―10…  相似文献   

地震灾害风险防治协同机制研究     

陈华静  李一行  宫玥  王秀 《震灾防御技术》2020,15(4):731-738

在大应急体制下,地震灾害风险防治迎来新的机遇,同时也面临诸多问题和挑战。通过研究14个省和2个自治区地震灾害风险防治协同文件与协同实践,聚焦政府内部,以综合部门与行业部门的关系为重点,对我国地震灾害风险防治协同情况进行梳理和审视,为进一步完善大应急体制下的地震灾害风险防治协同机制提供实践资料、理论分析和政策建议。  相似文献   

Anthropogenic threat assessment of marine-associated fauna in Spencer Gulf,South Australia     

《Marine Policy》2017

Assessing the vulnerability of species to [anthropogenic threats is an essential step when developing management strategies for wild populations. With industrial development forecasted to increase in Spencer Gulf, South Australia, it is crucial to assess the ongoing effects of anthropogenic threats to resident and migratory species. Expert elicitation was used to assess 27 threats against 38 threatened, protected, and iconic marine-associated species. Species and threat interactions were assessed individually, and as taxonomic or functional groups. Climate change had the greatest overall exposure (c.f. risk) across species, followed by disturbance, pollution, disease/invasive species, and fishing/aquaculture threats. The largest overall sensitivities (c.f. consequences) were pollution and disease/invasive species, followed by climate change, disturbance and fishing/aquaculture threats. Vulnerability scores (exposure x sensitivity) showed the climate change group posing the greatest overall threat in Spencer Gulf, with individual climatic threats ranking as three of the top four biggest threats to most animal groups. Noise, shipping, and net fishing were considered the greatest region-specific individual threats to marine mammals; as were trawl fishing, line fishing, and coastal activities to fish/cuttlefish; trawl fishing, line fishing, and net fishing to elasmobranchs; and oil spill, disease, and coastal activities to sea/shorebirds. Eighteen of the 20 highest vulnerability scores involved the short-beaked common dolphin, Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphin, and Australian sea lion, highlighting the particular susceptibility of these species to specific threats. These findings provide a synthesis of key threats and vulnerable species, and give management a basis to direct future monitoring and threat mitigation efforts in the region.  相似文献   

Environmental management frameworks for offshore mining: the New Zealand approach     

《Marine Policy》2017

The New Zealand region contains untapped natural mineral, oil, and gas resources while also supporting globally unique and diverse faunal communities that need to be managed sustainably. In this paper key information from the international literature is reviewed that can underpin an Environmental Mining Management System which includes elements of Environmental Risk Assessment, Environmental Impact Assessment and Environmental Management Planning. This paper focuses on four developing areas of seafloor mining activities presently being undertaken or planned in the New Zealand region: hydrocarbons (oil and gas), minerals, ironsands and phosphorite nodules. A number of issues with the implementation of environmental management systems are identified including the difficulty of assessing new marine activities or technologies and the need for standardised reporting metrics. Finally, the development of ecosystem-based management and marine spatial planning is discussed which will be required to enhance environmental mining management frameworks in New Zealand.  相似文献   

Business case for mussel aquaculture in offshore wind farms in the North Sea     

《Marine Policy》2017

The European Blue Growth strategy aims to expand the new maritime sectors of aquaculture, energy, biotechnology, coastal tourism and mineral mining. Growth of these sectors will increases pressure on the seas, particularly on those areas that are densely used by traditional sectors such as fisheries and transport. This has triggered interest in developing multiuse of space and multiuse platforms at sea. This paper assesses the feasibility of offshore mussel production project in wind farms by design and ex-ante evaluation of a mussel aquaculture system in the North Sea. A system for mussel cultivation in the Dutch Borssele offshore wind farm was designed, producing both mussel seed and consumption-sized mussels with semi-submerged longlines. Based on the economic model and the risk assessment, this paper concludes that mussel aquaculture is an appealing commercial model for increased returns in offshore wind farms. The economic models shows that the internal rate of return and net present value are positive and based on the sensitivity analysis, it can be concluded that these results are robust.  相似文献