城市地震灾害风险评价方法研究     

金江军  潘懋  徐岳仁 《内陆地震》2007,21(2):135-141

从危险性评价、易损性评价以及防灾减灾能力评价3个方面阐述了城市地震灾害风险评价内容.回顾了地震灾害风险评价研究进展,指出了现有评价方法的不足.提出了基于地震小区划的城市地震危险性评价方法、基于城市用地类型的城市地震易损性评价方法以及基于专家打分法的城市防震减灾能力评价方法.最后设计了城市地震灾害风险评价流程,并给出了城市地震灾害风险区划算法.  相似文献   

喀腊塑克水库诱发地震浅析     

彭亮  汪海涛  王兆云 《内陆地震》2007,21(2):149-154

采用判别标志、对比判断方法,尤其是概率分析方法对喀腊塑克水库诱发地震进行了分析。概率分析方法是利用诱震水库和未发震水库的统计资料,考虑了库深、库容、构造应力环境、断层活动性及诱震区介质条件5个因素,再利用概率统计中的贝叶斯公式建立了预测水库能否诱震的概率模型,最终计算出结果。另外,从库区断层活动性及断裂所通过的位置、库水深度及岩石坚硬程度等方面,分析出可能产生诱发该水库地震的位置。结合工作中的体会,提出评价水库诱发地震的步骤和方法。最终分析结果表明,喀腊塑克水库诱发地震的可能性不大。  相似文献   

顶管施工中的风险分析     

律文田 《岩土钻凿工程》2007,(6):27-29

随着我国经济的发展和人们环保意识的增强，顶管施工作为一种非开挖施工方法得到广泛的应用，在城市建设中应用的领域也越来越宽。由于地下工程的不确定性，特别是在拥挤的城市，顶管施工常面临极大的风险。本文通过分析顶管施工项目风险因素及后果，给出了降低顶管施工风险的措施。  相似文献   

Clustering stochastic point process model for flood risk analysis     

Z. X. Xu  J. Y. Li  K. Ito 《Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics》1998,12(1):53-64

Since the introduction into flood risk analysis, the partial duration series method has gained increasing acceptance as an appealing alternative to the annual maximum series method. However, when the base flow is low, there is clustering in the flood peak or flow volume point process. In this case, the general stochastic point process model is not suitable to risk analysis. Therefore, two types of models for flood risk analysis are derived on the basis of clustering stochastic point process theory in this paper. The most remarkable characteristic of these models is that the flood risk is considered directly within the time domain. The acceptability of different models are also discussed with the combination of the flood peak counted process in twenty years at Yichang station on the Yangtze river. The result shows that the two kinds of models are suitable ones for flood risk analysis, which are more flexible compared with the traditional flood risk models derived on the basis of annual maximum series method or the general stochastic point process theory. Received: September 29, 1997  相似文献   

一种利用贝叶斯最小判别准则估计未来地震危险的新方法   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

金学申  邵辉成 《中国地震》1998,14(3):88-93

提出了一种基于最大似然和贝叶斯最小判别准则的新预测方法,它的长处在于对样本数无特殊要求,所以,对低地震活动地区,此模型也能得到与时间有关的稳定的未来强震危险估计。最后,以华北地区为例,说明了本方法的可行性。  相似文献   

The role of social norms in climate adaptation: Mediating risk perception and flood insurance purchase     

Alex Y. Lo 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(5):1249-1257

Flood insurance plays an important role in climate adaptation by recovering insured losses in the event of catastrophic flooding. Voluntary adoption of flood insurance has been seen as a function of risk perception that is shaped by social norms. This paper attempts to clarify the relationship between these factors. It is based on a household survey conducted in the eastern cities of Australia and involving a total of 501 randomly selected residents. Results of a path analysis show that the likelihood of having flood insurance cover was associated with perceived social norms, but not perceived flood risk. In addition, perceived norms and risk were statistically related to each other. It is concluded that social norms played a mediating role between insuring decision and risk perception. Risk perception might influence the insuring decision indirectly through shaping perception of social norms. This implies that adaptive behaviour is not necessarily a function of risk perception, but an outcome of its impacts upon the ways in which the individuals situate themselves in their social circles or the society. There is a feedback process in which individual perceptions of risk manifest as both a cause and effect, shaping and being shaped by the socio-cultural context.  相似文献   

未来黄、东海营养盐浓度变化情景预测   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

赵一丁  杨波  魏皓  赵亮 《海洋与湖沼》2015,46(5):983-994

本文基于FGOALS(Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model)对未来气候情景的预测结果,结合千年生态评估的未来两个情景下的河流营养盐载荷特征,利用黄、东海水动力模型和生态模型并采用降尺度的方法对未来黄、东海营养盐的分布特征进行情景预测。结果表明,两个情景下未来河口邻近海区营养盐浓度将显著增加,富营养化加剧;GO(Global Orchestration)情景下,河流无机氮载荷增幅较大,夏季黄海中部无机氮浓度明显升高;AM(Adapting mosaic)情景下,由于河流无机磷载荷增幅较大,海区氮磷比有所下降,夏季黄海中部表层无机氮浓度降低,而在底层升高。通过敏感性实验并结合收支分析对各海区水动力条件未来变化、河流载荷变化的相对贡献进行了评估:相对于水温和水动力环境改变,河流营养盐排放量的增长是未来营养盐浓度增加的主要原因。营养盐收支分析表明,未来对流和混合输运的变化有助于黄海营养盐浓度的增加,夏季生物量升高造成更多碎屑沉降并在底层矿化使得层化季节冷水团底部营养盐浓度增长;长江口邻近海区营养盐浓度增长主要受冲淡水羽流的影响;净初级生产增加加剧了营养盐的消耗。  相似文献   

Gauging perceptions of ocean acidification in Alaska     

《Marine Policy》2015

While ocean acidification (OA) poses a significant threat to ocean-related ecosystems and communities reliant on marine fisheries, aquaculture, and coral reef systems, limited public understanding and awareness can prevent coastal regions from being able to adequately assess the need for OA adaptation or mitigation. This study assessed public understanding of OA and how social and demographic factors influence the public’s concern for OA. The analysis was based on 311 questionnaires from full-time Alaska residents. The results showed that most Alaskans self-reported to have a basic awareness of OA, and subsequently were able to recognize that CO₂ emissions related to human activity are the dominant driver of changing ocean conditions. However, there was a low recognition of how natural variability in the marine environment affects OA, and most respondents were not very confident in their understanding of OA-related science. Moreover, even though many communities in Alaska are reliant on commercial and subsistence fishing activities, the respondents had a low awareness of fisheries-related OA risk. Given the ongoing debate associated with climate change research, evaluating CO₂ mitigation efforts through the perspective of OA could give individuals an unbiased way to assess the pros and cons of more intensive efforts to curb CO₂ emissions. Furthermore, using OA communication to enhance the understanding of how natural variability influences OA around the state and the potential economic implications for Alaska fisheries would help residents and stakeholders make informed decisions when considering fisheries management plans, food security, and job diversity as OA intensifies. Solidifying the understanding that any reduction in pH and intensification of OA can have implications for marine species that are irreversible on human timescales will reinforce not only that OA is an immediate concern, but also the importance of taking action now.  相似文献   

台风“苏力”灾害风险与防御行为效益评估     

杨林  曹春荣  林秋  明章  林文华  赵珊珊 《气象与环境学报》2015,31(1):106-112

利用2013年台风“苏力”的监测资料、台风灾情资料、2000年后福建省台风灾害数据库资料和台风“苏力”灾害防御行为效益评估网络问卷调查资料,采用相似分析法的上下限区间估算法,预评估台风“苏力”造成的受灾人口和直接经济损失,并利用台风灾害风险区划方法,对台风“苏力”进行灾害风险区划。结果表明：台风“苏力”预评估结果与实际灾情相符,台风“苏力”灾害风险分布与实际灾情分布大部分一致,风险等级高的县市,实际灾情重,高风险区的大部县市直接经济损失均为1000万元以上。应用台风灾害防御行为效益评估三级指标体系,通过调查统计分析可知,指标体系中的各级各项指数均能较好地反映和评估政府主导、部门联动和公众参与的防御行为效益,政府主导在各类减灾行为中作用最大。  相似文献   

SRES A2 情景下中国区域性高温热浪事件变化特征   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

杨红龙  潘婕  张镭 《气象与环境学报》2015,31(1):51-59

随全球变暖,应对高温热浪事件是未来现代化城市面临的难题之一。本文利用全球模式-HadAM3p提供的3组不同边界场和初始场驱动区域气候模式系统PRECIS的输出结果,模拟未来情景下中国区域性高温热浪事件发生频率、强度及持续时间的变化趋势。结果表明：全球PRECIS对基准时段（1961-1990年）的高温热浪事件的发生的频率、强度和持续时间及对应的大气环流特征具有较强的模拟能力。相对于基准时段,未来情景下未来时段（2071-2100年）中国各地区的高温热浪的强度增加,发生频率增幅超过了100 %,且持续时间增加30 %以上。此外,观测资料和模拟结果均表明武汉和哈尔滨地区的高温热浪与500 hPa高度场的正距平密切相关。而未来情景下,武汉和哈尔滨地区500 hPa高度场的正距平呈增加趋势,表明这些地区未来可能面临危害更严重的高温热浪事件。  相似文献