Sea state estimation using multiple ships simultaneously as sailing wave buoys     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

The article presents initial ideas towards a network-based approach for sea state estimation used for marine operations and other maritime applications. In principle, all available means, ranging from in situ buoys, fleet of ships to remote sensing by satellite and aircraft, could be considered, emphasising that each means and any combinations among may act simultaneously. This study focuses on just one of the means; the use of ships as sailing wave buoys. The article introduces the wave buoy analogy, i.e. ship-as-a-wave-buoy, and it makes a proposal on how to impose (different) weights to the single ship-specific wave spectrum estimates obtained from multiple ships. Moreover, the work includes a discussion about the importance to associate a measure to reflect the (un)certainty of the wave spectrum estimate. The article presents a numerical case study, where multiple ships act simultaneously as wave spectrum-estimators. The case study relies on numerical motion simulations, as appropriate full-scale data is not yet available. In the analysis, it is shown that the use of simultaneous data from multiple ships leads to more accurate wave spectrum estimations.  相似文献   

Ekman模型时间变化风应力系数的伴随参数估计     

李国庆  高艳秋  张继才 《海洋与湖沼》2019,50(5):979-993

本文基于时间分布参数设置,利用伴随同化方法,反演了Ekman模型中随时间变化的风应力拖曳系数,并在孪生实验和实际实验中对该方法进行了验证。在孪生实验中,研究了参数反演结果对不同影响因素的响应,包括:风速分布、风应力系数分布、风应力系数初始猜测值、风应力系数独立变量个数、观测数据误差和观测的深度。孪生实验结果验证了伴随同化方法反演Ekman模型中时变风应力系数的有效性,具体包括如下五个方面结论:1)不同风速分布下均能成功反演出不同风应力拖曳系数分布; 2)反演结果对初始猜测值较为敏感,风应力系数初始猜测值越接近给定值,反演结果越好;3)风应力系数独立点个数的选取会显著影响反演结果,合理的选择有利于提高反演效率及减小观测数据误差;4)观测误差能够影响反演结果,观测数据误差在20%以下时能取得合理的反演结果; 5)反演结果对观测数据的表层和次表层流速更为敏感,这是由Ekman流的物理性质决定的。实际实验,利用百慕大锚系试验平台的风速和流速数据,去除周期性潮流和地转流成分后得到Ekman流成分,并作为观测输入到该同化模型,反演出了适用于该区域和该时段的随时间变化的风应力系数。通过比较模拟流速和观测流速,证明利用伴随同化方法能从实测数据中反演出合理的时变风应力系数,对于海洋模型风应力系数的确定是一项有益的尝试。  相似文献   

Upper Ocean Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal     

Suneet Dwivedi  Atul Srivastava  Alok Kumar Mishra 《Marine Geodesy》2018,41(3):230-257

A regional ocean circulation model with four-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme is configured to study the ocean state of the Indian Ocean region (65°E–95°E; 5°N–20°N) covering the Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay of Bengal (BoB). The state estimation setup uses 10 km horizontal resolution and 5 m vertical resolution in the upper ocean. The in-situ temperature and salinity, satellite-derived observations of sea surface height, and blended (in-situ and satellite-derived) observations of sea surface temperature alongwith their associated uncertainties are used for data assimilation with the regionally configured ocean model. The ocean state estimation is carried out for 61 days (1 June to 31 July 2013). The assimilated fields are closer to observations compared to other global state estimates. The mixed layer depth (MLD) of the region shows deepening during the period of assimilation with AS showing higher MLD compared to the BoB. An empirical forecast equation is derived for the prediction of MLD using the air–sea forcing variables as predictors. The surface and sub-surface (50 m) heat and salt budget tendencies of the region are also investigated. It is found that at the sub-surface, only the advection and diffusion temperature and salt tendencies are important.  相似文献   

Decumbent development: Urban sprawl in the Guwahati Metropolitan Area,India     

Chandra Kant Pawe  Anup Saikia 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2020,41(2):226-247

Urban sprawl has become a global phenomenon as an outcome of growing population and rapid urbanization. Previous studies have addressed the rising incidence of uncontrollable urban development, particularly in peri-urban areas of cities, leading to chronic urban sprawl. The city of Guwahati, a million city in north east India, has expanded significantly in recent years. In this article, the links between population and growth of built-up areas were examined using geo-spatial techniques and remotely sensed datasets. The results indicate that the sprawl has accentuated in recent years. The intensity of land use remained uneven due to marked variations in the distribution of built-up areas, plausibly an outcome of unplanned urban growth. If current trends are anything to go by, future urban sprawl could pose serious threats to the vulnerable eco-sensitive and peri-urban areas of Guwahati. Secondary cities have unfortunately received scant attention in urban policy research, and Guwahati, epitomizes urban woes in a developing country.  相似文献   

灰色稳健总体最小二乘估计及高铁路基变形预测     

陈洋  文鸿雁  覃辉  王清涛  周吕 《大地测量与地球动力学》2018,38(2):140-146

最小二乘估计和部分变量误差模型的总体最小二乘估计不具备抵御粗差的能力。鉴于粗差可能同时出现在灰色白化微分方程的观测值和系数矩阵中，本文提出基于IGGⅢ抗差方案的部分变量总体最小二乘稳健估计。结合仿真数据和高铁路基观测数据，系统地比较稳健最小二乘、部分变量总体最小二乘、本文算法参数估计结果和算法稳定性。结果表明，本文算法预测精度高，可以应用到高铁路基沉降预测中。  相似文献   

Effect of rainfall uncertainty on the performance of physically based rainfall–runoff models     

Ignacio Fraga  Luis Cea  Jernimo Puertas 《水文研究》2019,33(1):160-173

This paper analyses the effect of rain data uncertainty on the performance of two hydrological models with different spatial structures: a semidistributed and a fully distributed model. The study is performed on a small catchment of 19.6 km² located in the north‐west of Spain, where the arrival of low pressure fronts from the Atlantic Ocean causes highly variable rainfall events. The rainfall fields in this catchment during a series of storm events are estimated using rainfall point measurements. The uncertainty of the estimated fields is quantified using a conditional simulation technique. Discharge and rain data, including the uncertainty of the estimated rainfall fields, are then used to calibrate and validate both hydrological models following the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology. In the storm events analysed, the two models show similar performance. In all cases, results show that the calibrated distribution of the input parameters narrows when the rain uncertainty is included in the analysis. Otherwise, when rain uncertainty is not considered, the calibration of the input parameters must account for all uncertainty in the rainfall–runoff transformation process. Also, in both models, the uncertainty of the predicted discharges increase in similar magnitude when the uncertainty of rainfall input increase.  相似文献   

GPS/BDS分类组合定位的指数加权Helmert方差分量估计法     

刘天骏  王坚  韩厚增  宁一鹏  余航 《大地测量与地球动力学》2018,38(7):684-688

针对北斗卫星导航系统（BDS）星座结构复杂、不同类型卫星观测值残差差异较大的不利条件，将BDS系统中IGSO、MEO、GEO 3种卫星的观测值进行分类定权，提出一种顾及历史权比的指数加权Helmert方差分量估计法来精确确定不同系统之间观测值的权阵。为了验证该方法在GPS/BDS组合定位中的有效性，采用单点定位模型分别进行静态和动态导航实验，并将其定位结果与等权模型以及不考虑指数加权的Helmert方差分量估计方法进行对比。结果表明，采用改进的加权方法，在东、北、天3个方向的定位精度均获得显著提高，在静态条件下，相对于等权模型，改进方法3个方向的定位精度提高幅度分别达到50.0%、51.0%和42.0%；在动态条件下，定位精度提高幅度分别为10.0%、8.0%和9.0%。特别在卫星数量较少、卫星几何图形强度较差时，定位结果的改善效果更为明显。  相似文献   

基于散射计风场数据的台风强度诊断方法——以海洋二号卫星数据为例   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

杨典  宋清涛  蒋兴伟  刘宇昕  刘圆 《海洋学报》2019,41(1):151-159

本文提出了一种基于散射计风场数据的台风定强方法。该方法定义了台风所在海区的一个圆形区域上的风速平均值来对台风进行定强，并使用海洋二号卫星散射计历史数据对该方法进行了验证。验证结果表明，该台风定强方法可以克服散射计反演台风风速过低的问题。与台风强度监测的历史记录比较的结果显示，在台风强度低于"强台风"这一强度等级时，该方法能够有效估算台风强度。  相似文献   

Interpreting zirconium‐in‐rutile thermometric results          下载免费PDF全文

K. Taylor‐Jones  R. Powell 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2015,33(2):115-122

At first sight, experimental results and observations on rocks suggest that the Zr content in rutile, where equilibrated with quartz and zircon, should be a useful thermometer for metamorphic rocks. However, diffusion data for Zr in rutile imply that thermometry should not, for plausible rates of cooling, give the high temperatures commonly observed in high‐grade metamorphic rocks. It is suggested here that such observations can be accounted for by high‐T diffusive closure of Si in rutile, causing the interior of rutile grains to become insensitive to the thermometer equilibrium well above the temperature of Zr diffusive closure. Paired with comparatively slow grain boundary diffusion and problematic zircon nucleation, this allows for cases of Zr retention in rutile through temperatures where Zr is still diffusively mobile within rutile grains. Other observations that may be accounted for in this context are large inter‐grain ranges of rutile Zr contents uncorrelated with rutile grain size, and flat Zr profiles across individual rutile grains, counter to what would be expected from diffusive closure. A consequence is that it is unlikely that Zr‐in‐rutile thermometry will be useful for estimating rock cooling rates.  相似文献   

海底爆破振动强度衰减规律及中华白海豚保护措施研究     

费鸿禄  关福晨  包士杰  肖绍青 《海洋通报》2019,38(4):405-414

为确保海底爆破施工所诱发的振动不对中华白海豚造成危害,基于量纲分析法对萨道夫斯基经验公式进行修正,建立适用于预测海底爆破质点峰值振动速度的相似准数方程。在此基础上根据现场试验数据进行非线性回归运算,得到相关参数并分析了海底爆破振动强度衰减规律。分析表明:海底爆破质点峰值振速主要由单段装药量、监测点距爆心水平距离、覆盖层厚度及海水深度等因素决定。将参数值分别代入萨氏公式及新建公式计算预测值并进行误差估计,其平均误差分别为20.3%和10.0%,新建公式提高了对质点振速预测的准确性。利用新建公式及超压内安全振速估算保护中华白海豚的安全距离并提出相应的保护措施,为同类工程施工提供理论参考依据。  相似文献