Risk assessment of TBT in the Japanese short-neck clam (Ruditapes philippinarum) of Tokyo Bay using a chemical fate model     

Fumio Horiguchi  Kisaburo Nakata  Naganori Ito  Ken Okawa 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2006,70(4):589

A risk assessment of Tributyltin (TBT) in Tokyo Bay was conducted using the Margin of Exposure (MOE) method at the species level using the Japanese short-neck clam, Ruditapes philippinarum. The assessment endpoint was defined to protect R. philippinarum in Tokyo Bay from TBT (growth effects). A No Observed Effect Concentration (NOEC) for this species with respect to growth reduction induced by TBT was estimated from experimental results published in the scientific literature. Sources of TBT in this study were assumed to be commercial vessels in harbors and navigation routes. Concentrations of TBT in Tokyo Bay were estimated using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, an ecosystem model and a chemical fate model. MOEs for this species were estimated for the years 1990, 2000, and 2007. Estimated MOEs for R. philippinarum for 1990, 2000, and 2007 were approximately 1–3, 10, and 100, respectively, indicating a declining temporal trend in the probability of adverse growth effects.A simplified software package called RAMTB was developed by incorporating the chemical fate model and the databases of seasonal flow fields and distributions of organic substances (phytoplankton and detritus) in Tokyo Bay, simulated by the hydrodynamic and ecological model, respectively.  相似文献   

Are invasive species most successful in habitats of low native species richness across European brackish water seas?   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Marjo Paavola  Sergej Olenin  Erkki Leppkoski 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2005,64(4):738-750

European brackish water seas (Baltic Sea, Black Sea and Sea of Azov, Caspian Sea) are subject to intense invasion of non-indigenous species (NIS). In these seas, salinity is the most important range limiting factor and native species seem to reach a minimum species richness at intermediate salinities. This trend, revealed by Remane in 1934 and later on confirmed by many other scientists, was compared to the salinity range of already established NIS in the European brackish water seas. It turned out that most NIS are well adapted to the salinities holding lowest native species richness, already in their native area, and that NIS richness maximum in brackish water seas occurs in the salinity intervals of native species richness minimum. A predictable pattern in the salinity range of NIS can be used as a tool in initial risk assessment of future invasions in brackish water seas, especially when mapping highly potential donor and recipient areas. A product of empty niches, suitable environmental conditions, and availability of proper vectors might be the most effective predictor for the invasibility of brackish water areas.  相似文献   

黄河三角洲沿岸海浪风暴潮耦合作用漫堤风险评估研究   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：5  

尹宝树  徐艳青  任鲁川  杨德周  程明华 《海洋与湖沼》2006,37(5):457-463

海浪、风暴潮是重要的海洋灾害因子,过去人们主要对这些灾害因子本身进行研究,而对它们作用的承灾体研究甚少。实际上,只有它们作用的承灾体遭到破坏,才产生海洋灾害。本研究的目的就是要针对海浪风暴潮漫堤灾害,提出漫堤灾害的风险评估标准及风险评估方法和程式,为沿海防灾减灾提供科学依据。针对黄河三角洲示范区,根据漫堤程度,提出了漫堤灾害风险等级标准,并基于建立的海浪和风暴潮潮汐数值模式及长期预测结果,提出了风险评估方法和程式步骤。对黄河三角洲近岸海域主要堤段进行了多年一遇和典型台风过程漫堤灾害的风险评估。得到的结果是:该区沿岸海堤在风暴潮水位下一般都不能发生水位漫堤现象,只有加上波浪作用时,才会出现海水漫堤;当发生五十年一遇的风暴潮、浪时,多数的海堤的风暴潮、浪漫堤灾害风险在3—4级,即有效波高的浪已爬上或接近爬到堤顶;9216和9711号台风所产生的风暴潮、浪灾害约为150—200年一遇的情况。从实际情况看,本研究中提出的漫堤风险评估标准、评估方法是可行的,评估结果为有效防减海浪风暴潮漫堤灾害造成的损失提供了参考。  相似文献   

Design of Mooring System for Oil Storage Vessels     

LI  Wen-long 《中国海洋工程》2003,17(4):541-550

The floating oil storage system has been proposed as a new facility for Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in China. Mooring is one of the key technologies to ensure the safety, reliability, and performance of the oil storage system. This paper describes the concept, analysis, design and reliability of the mooring system. For mooring system design of these oil vessels, analysis is essential of the behavior of the vessel in connection with mooring facilities of nonlinear resilience. A nonlinear mathematical model for analyzing a moored vessel is established and solved. Some results of numerical simulations are presented. Assessment of the safety regarding the mooring system in terms of failure probability is carried out. Another simulation model for calculating the failure probability of the mooring system is proposed. The design parameters that have an influence on the characteristics of the failure probability have been identified. The simulation results show that the mooring system has an annual reliab  相似文献   

Damage Detection Methods for Offshore Platforms Based on Wavelet Packet Transform     

李东升张兆德  王德禹 《中国海洋工程》2005,19(4):701-710

1 .IntroductionInthe whole service period of the platforms ,some damage is unavoidable due to the corrosion,impact ,fatigue and so on.The damage whould cause the structures’ultimate capacity and safety de-crease .Presently,it is generally acceptedthat the detection of damage involes considerable statisticaluncertainties,thus lot of efforts is made for the damage probalility model ,for example Song and Lu(1996) usedthefuzzy-settheoryto estimatethe humanerrorsthroughthe definitionof inspection…  相似文献   

运用德尔菲调查—灰色统计法确立水库鱼产力综合评价中的指标权重体系   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

焦念志 《海洋湖沼通报》1992,(4)

本文运用德尔菲方法对水库鱼产力综合评价中指标权重的合理分配问题作了专家调查,并采用灰色统计法对调查结果进行归纳处理,从而确立了一个水库鱼产力影响因素诸层次各方面的评价指标权重体系,可供今后的评价工作参考使用。  相似文献   

Risk Assessment for Tuzla Naval Base Breakwater   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Can Elmar BALAS 《中国海洋工程》2003,17(3)

1 .IntroductionTurkeywasstruckbytwomajorearthquakeeventsonAugust 1 7thandNovember 1 2th ,1 999,namedIzmit (Mw=7.4 )andD櫣ｚｃｅ (Mw=7.2 )earthquakes,respectively .ThestationsoperatedbytheGeneralDirectorateofDisasterAffairs,theKandilliObservatoryandEarthquakeResearchInstituteofIstanbulTechnicalUniversitymeasuredatleast 2 7stronggroundmotionsfortheIzmitearthquakewithin 2 0 0kmofthefault.AsignificantsegmentofthefaultrupturedintheareabetweenthewestofGolcukandtheeastofLakeSapanca .Inthesou…  相似文献   

海洋贝类利用模式生命周期评价方法研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

李君  孙恢礼  吴园涛  翁世兵  林丽云  孙小钰 《热带海洋学报》2007,26(4):70-75

首次将产品生命周期评价方法(LCA)应用于海洋贝类利用模式上。根据海洋贝类利用技术产业发展的特性和趋势,设计构建了由确定目标和范围、清单分析、影响评价3个步骤组成的评价体系,挑选了具有典型代表的2种扇贝利用模式进行评价,对其生产过程中的资源消耗、固体废弃物、富营养化、温室效应、酸化影响和潜在影响进行对比评价。评价结果显示其中资源消耗、温室效应、酸化影响、潜在健康影响的影响潜值模式2(产品模式为扇贝柱、复合氨基酸、鱼虾饵料和贝壳工艺品)比模式1(产品模式为扇贝柱、食用贝边、鱼虾鲜饵料和饲料添加剂)低;而固体废弃物、富营养化的影响潜值,模式2比模式1高。本评价方法可用于选择和优化海洋贝类的绿色化高值利用模式。研究表明,利用文章提出的海洋贝类利用评价方法可以有效掌握贝类利用的整个过程的环境行为,确定其中优化资源、节省能源和减少污染的关键步骤,为优化利用模式提供基础数据支持。  相似文献   

Coastal geomorphic evolution at the Denglou Cape, the Leizhou Peninsula     

Wang Lirong  Zhao Huanting  Song Chaojing  Yuan Jiayi  Yu Hongbing 《海洋学报(英文版)》2002,21(4):597-611

ＩＮＴＲＯＤＵＣＴＩＯＮＴｈｅＤｅｎｇｌｏｕＣａｐｅ ,ｉｎｔｈｅｓｏｕｔｈｗｅｓｔｏｆｔｈｅＬｅｉｚｈｏｕＰｅｎｉｎｓｕｌａ ,ｉｓａｔｔｈｅｎｏｒｔｈｍａｒｇｉｎｏｆｔｒｏｐｉｃａｌｚｏｎｅ .ＳｅｖｅｒａｌｒｅｓｅａｒｃｈｅｓａｎｄｃａｒｔｏｇｒａｐｈｉｅｓｏｆｔｈｅｒｅｇｉｏｎａｌｇｅｏｍｏｒｐｈｏｌｏｇｙａｎｄＱｕａｔｅｒ ｎａｒｙｇｅｏｌｏｇｙ ,ｗｈｉｃｈｗｅｒｅｃａｒｒｉｅｄｏｕｔｉｎｔｈｅｐａｓｔ,ａｌｌｉｎｃｌｕｄｅｔｈｉｓａｒｅａ (ＭＧＬ ,ＳＣＳＩＯ ,ＣＡＳ ,1 978;ＧＰＣＳＧＲＣＺＴ…  相似文献   

喀斯特荒漠化是一种地质—生态灾难   总被引：23，自引：0，他引：23  

杨汉奎 《海洋地质与第四纪地质》1995,15(3):137-147

ＫＤＮ是一种ＧＥＯＬ－ＥＣＯＬ灾难,是发生潮湿的碳酸盐岩区的土壤侵蚀、土地退化与生态系统凋萎,致使人类很难生活在其中。ＫＤＮ是我国四大ＧＥＯＬ－ＥＣＯＬ灾害中最难整治、最难摆脱贫困的地区。本文按国际公认的原则为准,认定“石山化”≠ＫＤＮ,从地质结构性气候、物候和生态系统多因子厘定了ＫＤＮ术语,认定人为扰动与人口超载是其产生的序参量。其过程最迟也是３００多年前明清朝代屯垦开始,近半个世纪加速衰竭,森  相似文献