京津唐地区地壳结构与强震的发生──I．P波速度结构   总被引：11，自引：3，他引：11       下载免费PDF全文

孙若昧  刘福田 《地球物理学报》1995,(5)

用１９８４－１９９１年发生在京津唐地区（３７°－４１°Ｎ，１１２．５°－１２０°Ｅ）的２５０５个地震的２２２３４条Ｐ波到时进行的层析成像，揭示了地震活动性与速度图像间的联系：１．公元１０００年以来该区强震震中在上地壳的投影大多分布在高速块体内或高速块体与低速块体相交地带，偏高速体的一侧．２．唐山地震和三河－平谷地震所处的构造背景相似，均未依傍大断层，处在介质速度变化剧烈部位．３．宁河与唐山、滦县分别位于规模大小、位置深浅不同的两个不同的高速块体处，可以解释唐山地震序列震源深度分布东北浅西南深的总体特征．４．唐山地震可能是由一条北西向的地下隐伏断层扩展的结果．  相似文献   

台湾东地震带地震活动特征及与大陆地震的关系   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

李献智  张国民 《地震研究》1995,18(1):16-20

本文研究了台湾东地震带地震活动的特征及其与中国大陆地震的关系，发现二者具有时间上的同步性和某些动力学特征的联系，既为判定大陆地震趋势提供了参考依据，也为可能统一研究中国大陆和台湾省的地震趋势提供了有价值的线索。  相似文献   

地震活动性的细胞自动机模型   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8       下载免费PDF全文

刘桂萍  石耀霖  马丽 《地震工程学报》1995,17(2):20-25

本文在二维平面设计了一个模拟地震活动性的细胞自动机模型，分析了模拟地震离列的活动性，并探讨了强震前场兆和源兆的物理机制，结果表明，模型的地震序列很好地反映了实际地震的丛集特性、幂律关系和空间转移概率的稳定性等特点。  相似文献   

Elastic models of seismic failure in the Valley of Mexico     

A. Uribe-Carvajal  E. Nyland 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1982,120(4):795-808

Restricted parts of the Valley of Mexico have been plagued by swarms of small earthquakes during recent years. The cause of these events is puzzling, but they may relate to massive artificial changes in the hydrology of the lake-bed which underlies most of Mexico City. If the valley responds elastically, plane strain finite element calculations can be used to relate geologic and seismic structure to observed seismicity and overall stability of the valley. These calculations show that unstable zones and areas of local seismicity coincide if the triggering mechanism of the seismicity is related to variations of pore pressure and water load.In order to make such a connection it is necessary to ascribe the generating mechanism of the seismicity to the density and elastic modulus anomalies associated with the valley structure, and to suggest that the phenomenon that triggers this seismicity is related to changes in water content of the near surface formations.  相似文献   

Seismic risk of circum-pacific earthquakes I. Strain energy release   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Kostas C. Makropoulos  Paul W. Burton 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1983,121(2):247-267

Commonly used earthquake “whole process” frequency - magnitude and strain energy - magnitude laws are merged to obtain an analytic expression for an upper bound magnitude to regional earthquake occurrenceM ₃, which is expressed primarily in terms of the annual maximum magnitudeM ₁ and the magnitude equivalent of the annual average total strain energy releaseM ₂. Values ofM ₃ are also estimated graphically from cumulative strain energy release diagrams. Both methods are illustrated by application to the high seismicity of the circum-Pacific belt, using Duda’s (1965) data and regionalisation. Values ofM ₃ obtained analytically, with their uncertainties, are in agreement with those obtained graphically. Empirical relations are then obtained betweenM ₁,M ₂, andM ₃, which could be of general assistance in regional seismic risk considerations if they are found to be of a universal nature. For instance.M ₃ andM ₂ differ by one magnitude unit in subregions of the circum-Pacific.  相似文献   

利用地震活动图像研究青海强震孕育演化特征     

陈玉华  李静  马晓兰 《高原地震》2005,17(4):1-9

青海地区强震震例研究表明，地震活动图像演化过程对强震的孕育有较好的预示作用。研究了青海强震孕育不同阶段地震活动呈现出的几种清晰稳定的演化图像，对未来强震的时、空、强预测均有一定的指示作用。  相似文献   

Time independent seismic hazard analysis in Alborz and surrounding area   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mohammad Ashtari Jafari 《Natural Hazards》2007,42(1):237-252

The Bayesian probability estimation seems to have efficiencies that make it suitable for calculating different parameters of seismicity. Generally this method is able to combine prior information on seismicity while at the same time including statistical uncertainty associated with the estimation of the parameters used to quantify seismicity, in addition to the probabilistic uncertainties associated with the inherent randomness of earthquake occurrence. In this article a time-independent Bayesian approach, which yields the probability that a certain cut-off magnitude will be exceeded at certain time intervals is examined for the region of Alborz, Iran, in order to consider the following consequences for the city of Tehran. This area is located within the Alpine-Himalayan active mountain belt. Many active faults affect the Alborz, most of which are parallel to the range and accommodate the present day oblique convergence across it. Tehran, the capital of Iran, with millions of inhabitants is located near the foothills of the southern Central Alborz. This region has been affected several times by historical and recent earthquakes that confirm the importance of seismic hazard assessment through it. As the first step in this study an updated earthquake catalog is compiled for the Alborz. Then, by assuming a Poisson distribution for the number of earthquakes which occur at a certain time interval, the probabilistic earthquake occurrence is computed by the Bayesian approach. The highest probabilities are found for zone AA and the lowest probabilities for zones KD and CA, meanwhile the overall probability is high.  相似文献   

Large to intermediate-scale aquifer heterogeneity in fine-grain dominated alluvial fans (Cenozoic As Pontes Basin,northwestern Spain): insight based on three-dimensional geostatistical reconstruction     

O. Falivene  L. Cabrera  A. Sáez 《Hydrogeology Journal》2007,15(5):861-876

Facies reconstructions are used in hydrogeology to improve the interpretation of aquifer permeability distribution. In the absence of sufficient data to define the heterogeneity due to geological processes, uncertainties in the distribution of aquifer hydrofacies and characteristics may appear. Geometric and geostatistical methods are used to understand and model aquifer hydrofacies distribution, providing models to improve comprehension and development of aquifers. However, these models require some input statistical parameters that can be difficult to infer from the study site. A three-dimensional reconstruction of a kilometer scale fine-grain dominated Cenozoic alluvial fan derived from more than 200 continuously cored, closely spaced, and regularly distributed wells is presented. The facies distributions were reconstructed using a genetic stratigraphic subdivision and a deterministic geostatistical algorithm. The reconstruction is only slightly affected by variations in the geostatistical input parameters because of the high-density data set. Analysis of the reconstruction allowed identification in the proximal to medial alluvial fan zones of several laterally extensive sand bodies with relatively higher permeability; these sand bodies were quantified in terms of volume, mean thickness, maximum area, and maximum equivalent diameter. These quantifications provide trends and geological scenarios for input statistical parameters to model aquifer systems in similar alluvial fan depositional settings.  相似文献   

Application of Load/Unload Response Ratio in the Study of Seismicity in the Region of Iran     

Zhang Langping 《中国地震研究》2007,21(2):147-155

The variation of Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) against time for earthquakes in Kerman Province, Iran, on February 22, 2005, M6.4 and in Lorestan Province, Iran, on March 31, 2006, M6.1, has been calculated and analysed in this paper. The tempo-spatial scanning of LURR in the region of Iran during January 1, 2003 to March 31, 2006 has been conducted, with 1 year as a time-window, 1 month as a time-step, and the comparison of the LURR anomalous regions in 2004 with the actual earthquakes with M≥5.0 in the next year (2005) is also given, which shows that 11 earthquakes with M≥5.0 occurred in LURR anomalous regions while 12 earthquakes with M≥5.0 in LURR regions in 2005. Furthermore, the seismicity in this region is studied by investigating the evolvement of the anomalous LURR regions.  相似文献   

The November 2002 eruption at Piton de la Fournaise volcano,La Réunion Island: ground deformation,seismicity, and pit crater collapse     

Marc-Antoine Longpré  Thomas Staudacher  John Stix 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2007,69(5):511-525

An eruption on the eastern flank of Piton de la Fournaise volcano started on 16 November, 2002 after 10 months of quiescence. After a relatively constant level of activity during the first 13 days of the eruption, lava discharge, volcanic tremor and seismicity increased from 29 November to 3 December. Lava effusion suddenly ceased on 3 December while shallow earthquakes beneath the Dolomieu summit crater were still recorded at a rate of about one per minute. This unusual activity continued and increased in intensity over the next three weeks, ending with the formation of a pit crater within Dolomieu. Based on ground deformation, measured by rapid-static and continuous GPS and an extensometer, seismic data, and lava effusion patterns, the eruptive period is divided into five stages: 1) slow summit inflation and sporadic seismicity; 2) rapid summit inflation and a short seismic crisis; 3) rapid flank inflation, onset of summit deflation, sporadic seismicity, accompanied by stable effusion; 4) flank inflation, coupled with summit deflation, intense seismicity, and increased lava effusion; and finally 5) little deflation, intense shallow seismicity, and the end of lava effusion. We propose a model in which the pre-intrusive inflation of Stage 1 in the months preceding the eruption was caused by a magma body located near sea level. The magma reservoir was the source of an intrusion rising under the summit during Stage 2. In Stage 3, the magma ponded at a shallow level in the edifice while the lateral injection of a radial dike reached the surface on the eastern flank of the basaltic volcano, causing lava effusion. Pressure decrease in the magmatic plumbing system followed, resulting in upward migration of a collapse front, forming a subterranean column of debris by faulting and stoping. This caused intense shallow seismicity, increase in discharge of lava and volcanic tremor at the lateral vent in Stage 4 and, eventually the formation of a pit crater in Stage 5.  相似文献