Sensitivity of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to downscaling ratios and storm types in rainfall simulation     

Jia Liu  Michaela Bray  Dawei Han 《水文研究》2012,26(20):3012-3031

Accurate information of rainfall is needed for sustainable water management and more reliable flood forecasting. The advances in mesoscale numerical weather modelling and modern computing technologies make it possible to provide rainfall simulations and forecasts at increasingly higher resolutions in space and time. However, being one of the most difficult variables to be modelled, the quality of the rainfall products from the numerical weather model remains unsatisfactory for hydrological applications. In this study, the sensitivity of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is investigated using different domain settings and various storm types to improve the model performance of rainfall simulation. Eight 24‐h storm events are selected from the Brue catchment, southwest England, with different spatial and temporal distributions of the rainfall intensity. Five domain configuration scenarios designed with gradually changing downscaling ratios are used to run the WRF model with the ECMWF 40‐year reanalysis data for the periods of the eight events. A two‐dimensional verification scheme is proposed to evaluate the amounts and distributions of simulated rainfall in both spatial and temporal dimensions. The verification scheme consists of both categorical and continuous indices for a first‐level assessment and a more quantitative evaluation of the simulated rainfall. The results reveal a general improvement of the model performance as we downscale from the outermost to the innermost domain. Moderate downscaling ratios of 1:7, 1:5 and 1:3 are found to perform better with the WRF model in giving more reasonable results than smaller ratios. For the sensitivity study on different storm types, the model shows the best performance in reproducing the storm events with spatial and temporal evenness of the observed rainfall, whereas the type of events with highly concentrated rainfall in space and time are found to be the trickiest case for WRF to handle. Finally, the efficiencies of several variability indices are verified in categorising the storm events on the basis of the two‐dimensional rainfall evenness, which could provide a more quantitative way for the event classification that facilitates further studies. It is important that similar studies with various storm events are carried out in other catchments with different geographic and climatic conditions, so that more general error patterns can be found and further improvements can be made to the rainfall products from mesoscale numerical weather models. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Blue stragglers as stellar collision products: the angular momentum question     

Alison Sills  Tim Adams  Melvyn B. Davies 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,358(3):716-725

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三峡水库梯级调度专业气象服务业务系统的研究与设计   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

陈石定  王宏记  刘可群  陈良华 《成都信息工程学院学报》2005,20(6):654-656

介绍了三峡水库梯级调度专业气象保障服务业务系统的建设模式和原则以及主要建设内容和目标，并针对大气探测、通信网络、数据库、预测分析、产品发布、工作平台、业务监控、环境保障等子系统进行了规划设计。  相似文献   

Numerical modelling of orogenic processes and gold mineralisation in the southeastern part of the Yilgarn Craton,Western Australia     

P. Sorjonen-Ward  Y. Zhang  C. Zhao 《Australian Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,60(6):935-964

We use numerical modelling codes to simulate aspects of some current hypotheses for the origin of gold deposits and hydrothermal systems in the Yilgarn Craton of Western Australia. In particular, we investigate conceptual models advocating vertically continuous hydrothermal systems as well as those invoking extensive lateral flow and possible links with advection of heat by late orogenic granitic magmatism. Numerical models of part of the Eastern Goldfields Province and Southern Cross Province have been built with FLAC3D, to simulate crustal‐scale coupled interaction between deformation and fluid flow. These illustrate the potential for fluid focusing and mixing in shear zones, including downflow of meteoric water, lateral fluid flow driven by topographic elevation and upwards flow of fluids derived from melting and metamorphism in the deep crust. In some cases, downflow also occurs within the middle crust, at depths where fluid influx might trigger melting if the geothermal gradient were appropriate. The models indicate that tectonic wedging within a layered crust and diverging thrust systems that generate ‘pop‐up’ wedges may be important in facilitating efficient fluid upflow and downflow during uplift, while topographic elevation related to asymmetric thrust migration and loading tends to promote lateral fluid flow. However, the effect of topography appears more important than the precise depth or location of the site of fluid production in the deep crust. The effects of thermal convection and fluid‐fluid interaction have also been numerically modelled for a simplified section across the Kalgoorlie Terrane. Modelling under both hydrostatic and lithostatically overpressured pore‐pressure gradients has effectively delineated domains of convective fluid flow within the middle and upper crust, and has identified two generic sites that are favourable for fluid mixing, notably hangingwall and footwall environments in major shear zones, such as the Bardoc Shear, and in broad antiforms, such as the Goongarrie ‐ Mt Pleasant Antiform. The thermal effect of small plutons embedded in a regional metamorphic regime can cause significant lateral displacement of fluid convection patterns, over distances greater than pluton diameter, as well as more proximal effects on precipitation and dissolution of mineral species. However, these results are highly dependent on the pore‐pressure gradient and the permeability structure of the crust, and require magmatic and metamorphic fluid generation to be precisely timed with respect to deformation, thus reinforcing the dynamic feedback between deformation, magmatism and fluid production and migration.  相似文献   

陆面过程与天气研究     

陈海山  杜新观  孙悦 《地学前缘》2022,29(5):382-400

陆面作为大气运动的下边界,通过动量、热量及物质交换与大气发生复杂的相互作用。陆面过程被认为是影响天气气候的关键过程之一。关于陆面过程对气候的影响已经开展了大量较为深入的研究,相比之下,针对陆面过程对天气的影响研究并没有受到足够的重视。近年来,陆面过程与天气研究也开始受到了越来越多的关注。本文从陆面基本要素、下垫面构成、陆面诱发的局地环流3个方面,回顾了土壤湿度、地形、土地利用、山谷-平原环流等要素和过程对强对流、暴雨、台风、高温热浪等天气事件影响研究的相关进展,以期为今后的研究提供参考。需要指出,尽管此方面的研究已取得了一定进展,但关于陆面过程对天气,尤其是极端(高影响)天气的影响及机制还有待深入研究,进而从陆面过程的角度来理解重要天气形成、发生和发展的机理,从而为数值模式发展和天气预报业务提供更有力的科学支撑。  相似文献   

Telecommunication interactions between microplates and basal mantle LLSVPs.SCIEI北大核心CSCD     

曹现志  李三忠  索艳慧  戴黎明  杨安  王鹏程  刘金平 《岩石学报》2023,(3):659-669

基于海洋地质地球物理观测建立的板块构造理论意味着板块和浅部地幔共同演化,然而地幔底部尤其是大型横波低速异常区(LLSVP)与板块(尤其微板块)运动和演化之间是否存在关联仍有争议。一些研究认为LLSVP长期保持稳定,而另一些模型则认为它与各级板块存在相互作用。为此,本文通过总结前人成果,并基于近期发表的板块重建和地幔对流模型进行进一步分析,探讨微板块运动和LLSVP的演化关系。模拟结果表明,微板块与大板块类似,俯冲后通常会下沉至核幔边界。微幔块会推动地幔底部热的物质聚集并形成大的热化学结构。该热化学结构与层析成像揭示的LLSVP基本吻合。下地幔径向流速场和温度场的二阶结构与地表速度场散度的二阶结构随时间的移动轨迹相似,表明深浅部圈层的耦合演化,但是下地幔结构演化一般会滞后于浅表。在微幔块推挤之下,地幔柱优先沿着地幔底部热化学结构的边缘形成,且有时会被推至热化学结构的内部。地幔柱上升至浅部后,能够导致岩石圈弱化甚至裂解或板块边界跃迁,形成微板块。因此,地幔底部LLSVP不是稳定或静止的,而是与微板块动态协同演化,并通过地幔柱与浅表板块边界发生遥相关,从而控制微板块生成场所。  相似文献   

Petrogenesis of ore-bearing porphyry of a porphyry Cu deposit at Mujicun in the North China Craton and its geological implicationsSCIEI北大核心CSCD     

申志超  董博  孙伟  周玉谋  穆海凤  孟思源 《岩石学报》2023,(5):1516-1528

国内外学者对发育于弧环境和碰撞造山环境的斑岩铜矿成岩机制已取得了深刻的理解,但对产出在克拉通内部的斑岩铜矿成岩机制在认识上还有所欠缺。本文报道了侵位于144Ma木吉村斑岩铜矿内的含矿闪长玢岩的岩石地球化学资料,以揭示木吉村斑岩铜矿的含矿斑岩成因。岩石地球化学资料显示:含矿闪长玢岩具有较低的(^(87)Sr/^(86)Sr)i值(0.70599~70690)和εNd(t)值(-19.4~-14.9),富集轻稀土元素(LREEs)和大离子亲石元素(LILEs),相对亏损元素Y和Yb。木吉村含矿斑岩与王安镇杂岩体镁铁质岩(辉石岩、角闪石岩、辉长岩、辉长闪长岩、安山岩)具有相似的微量元素配分模式、Sr-Nd同位素组成及亲EMⅠ地幔特征,这些岩浆岩呈现持续性的成份演化趋势,反映出它们的同源性。木吉村含矿斑岩及相关的镁铁质岩石具有相对较低的(^(87)Sr/^(86)Sr)i值(0.70564~706897)和εNd(t)值(-19.4~-13.8),显著区别于中上地壳同位素区域。含矿斑岩起源于伸展背景下富集地幔部分熔融形成的玄武质岩浆,其上升过程中遭受了一定程度的下地壳混染。玄武质岩浆在深部岩浆房发生堆晶作用形成具典型堆晶结构的角闪石岩等基性岩,随后在浅部岩浆房经历两阶段辉长岩-辉长闪长岩、安山岩-闪长玢岩系列分离结晶作用形成含矿斑岩。此过程可能是形成华北克拉通木吉村斑岩铜矿含矿斑岩的机制和动力诱因。  相似文献   

Simulation of location-specific severe thunderstorm events using high resolution land data assimilation     

《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2019

In this study, the impact of different land initial conditions on the simulation of thunderstorms and monsoon depressions is investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. A control run (CNTL) and a simulation with an improved land state (soil moisture and temperature) using the High Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS, experiment name: EHRLDAS) are compared for three different rainfall cases in order to examine the robustness of the assimilation system. The study comprises two thunderstorm cases (one in the pre-monsoon and one during the monsoon) and one monsoon depression case that occurred during the Interaction of Convective Organisation, Atmosphere, Surface and Sea (INCOMPASS) field campaign of the 2016 Indian monsoon. EHRLDAS is shown to yield improvements in the representation of location-specific rainfall, particularly over land. Further, it is found that surface fluxes as well as convective indices are better captured for the pre-monsoon thunderstorm case in EHRLDAS. By analysing components of the vorticity tendency equation, it is found that the vertical advection term is the major contributor towards the positive vorticity tendency in EHRLDAS compared to CNTL, hence improving localised convection and consequently facilitating rainfall. Significant improvements in the simulation of the pre-monsoon thunderstorm are noted, as seen using Automatic Weather Station (AWS) validation, whereas improvements in the monsoon depression are minimal. Further, it is found that vertical advection (moisture flux convergence) is the major driver modulating the convective circulation in localised thunderstorm (monsoon depression) cases and these dynamics are better represented by EHRLDAS compared to CNTL. These findings underline the importance of accurate and high resolution land-state conditions in model initial conditions for forecasting severe weather systems, particularly the simulation of localised thunderstorms over India.  相似文献   

A Review of Research on Warm-Sector Heavy Rainfall in China     

Jianhua SUN  Yuanchun ZHANG  Ruixin LIU  Shenming FU  Fuyou TIAN 《大气科学进展》2019,36(12):1299-1307

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面向四维变分资料同化的NSAS积云深对流参数化方案的简化及线性化研究     

龚建东  刘永柱  张林 《气象学报》2019,77(4):595-616

GRAPES全球四维变分资料同化系统需要积云深对流参数化方案的线性化与伴随方案,直接采用原始复杂参数化方案进行线性化并不可行,需要发展简化光滑方案来减缓非线性与非连续性特征。GRAPES全球模式采用NSAS积云对流参数化方案,积云深对流对环境的反馈主要通过补偿下沉来实现,研究突出补偿下沉作用,忽略降水蒸发、动量反馈等贡献,形成简化方案。采用输入温、湿度廓线加入不同幅度小扰动方法,评估参数化方案计算的温度、比湿时间倾向对输入扰动的敏感性,检验非线性与非连续特征。提出避免或减缓非连续“开关”的方法,在简化方案的基础上发展了简化光滑方案。简化光滑方案与原始积云深对流方案相比,在对流触发上一致,在对流的位温与比湿倾向、降水的时序模拟等方面相似,而在减缓非线性、避免非连续性方面显著优于原始方案。基于简化光滑方案发展的线性化方案表明,对小于2倍分析增量幅度的扰动,线性化方案可以较好地模拟非线性方案的扰动发展。发展的简化光滑方案具有合理性和实用性。   相似文献