Seismic potential of Southern Italy   总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1  

S. Jenny  S. Goes  D. Giardini  H.-G. Kahle 《Tectonophysics》2006,415(1-4):81-101

To improve estimates of the long-term average seismic potential of the slowly straining South Central Mediterranean plate boundary zone, we integrate constraints on tectonic style and deformation rates from geodetic and geologic data with the traditional constraints from seismicity catalogs. We express seismic potential (long-term average earthquake recurrence rates as a function of magnitude) in the form of truncated Gutenberg–Richter distributions for seven seismotectonic source zones. Seismic coupling seems to be large or even complete in most zones. An exception is the southern Tyrrhenian thrust zone, where most of the African–European convergence is accommodated. Here aseismic deformation is estimated to range from at least 25% along the western part to almost 100% aseismic slip around the Aeolian Islands. Even so, seismic potential of this zone has previously been significantly underestimated, due to the low levels of recorded past seismicity. By contrast, the series of 19 M6–7 earthquakes that hit Calabria in the 18th and 19th century released tectonic strain rates accumulated over time spans up to several times the catalog duration, and seismic potential is revised downward. The southern Tyrrhenian thrust zone and the extensional Calabrian faults, as well as the northeastern Sicilian transtensional zone between them (which includes the Messina Straits, where a destructive M7 event occurred in 1908), all have a similar seismic potential with minimum recurrence times of M ≥ 6.5 of 150–220 years. This potential is lower than that of the Southern Apennines (M ≥ 6.5 recurring every 60 to 140 years), but higher than that of southeastern Sicily (minimum M ≥ 6.5 recurrence times of 400 years). The high seismicity levels recorded in southeastern Sicily indicate some clustering and are most compatible with a tectonic scenario where the Ionian deforms internally, and motions at the Calabrian Trench are small. The estimated seismic potential for the Calabrian Trench and Central and Western Sicily are the lowest (minimum M ≥ 6.5 recurrence times of 550–800 years). Most zones are probably capable of generating earthquakes up to magnitudes 7–7.5, with the exception of Central and Western Sicily where maximum events sizes most likely do not exceed 7.  相似文献   

Geophysical methods applied to fault characterization and earthquake potential assessment in the Lower Tagus Valley, Portugal     

Joo Carvalho  Joo Cabral  Rui Gonalves  Luís Torres  Luís Mendes-Victor 《Tectonophysics》2006,418(3-4):277-297

The study region is located in the Lower Tagus Valley, central Portugal, and includes a large portion of the densely populated area of Lisbon. It is characterized by a moderate seismicity with a diffuse pattern, with historical earthquakes causing many casualties, serious damage and economic losses. Occurrence of earthquakes in the area indicates the presence of seismogenic structures at depth that are deficiently known due to a thick Cenozoic sedimentary cover. The hidden character of many of the faults in the Lower Tagus Valley requires the use of indirect methodologies for their study. This paper focuses on the application of high-resolution seismic reflection method for the detection of near-surface faulting on two major tectonic structures that are hidden under the recent alluvial cover of the Tagus Valley, and that have been recognized on deep oil-industry seismic reflection profiles and/or inferred from the surface geology. These are a WNW–ESE-trending fault zone located within the Lower Tagus Cenozoic basin, across the Tagus River estuary (Porto Alto fault), and a NNE–SSW-trending reverse fault zone that borders the Cenozoic Basin at the W (Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon fault). Vertical electrical soundings were also acquired over the seismic profiles and the refraction interpretation of the reflection data was carried out. According to the interpretation of the collected data, a complex fault pattern disrupts the near surface (first 400 m) at Porto Alto, affecting the Upper Neogene and (at least for one fault) the Quaternary, with a normal offset component. The consistency with the previous oil-industry profiles interpretation supports the location and geometry of this fault zone. Concerning the second structure, two major faults were detected north of Vila Franca de Xira, supporting the extension of the Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon fault zone northwards. One of these faults presents a reverse geometry apparently displacing Holocene alluvium. Vertical offsets of the Holocene sediments detected in the studied geophysical data of Porto Alto and Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon faults imply minimum slip rates of 0.15–0.30 mm/year, three times larger than previously inferred for active faults in the Lower Tagus Valley and maximum estimates of average return periods of 2000–5000 years for M 6.5–7 co-seismic ruptures.  相似文献   

Aftershocks series monitoring of the September 18, 2004 M = 4.6 earthquake at the western Pyrenees: A case of reservoir-triggered seismicity?     

M. Ruiz  O. Gasp  J. Gallart  J. Díaz  J.A. Pulgar  J. García-Sansegundo  C. Lpez-Fernndez  J.M. Gonzlez-Cortina 《Tectonophysics》2006,424(3-4):223

On September 18, 2004, a 4.6 mbLg earthquake was widely felt in the region around Pamplona, at the western Pyrenees. Preliminary locations reported an epicenter less than 20 km ESE of Pamplona and close to the Itoiz reservoir, which started impounding in January 2004. The area apparently lacks of significant seismic activity in recent times. After the main shock, which was preceded by series of foreshocks reaching magnitudes of 3.3 mbLg, a dense temporal network of 13 seismic stations was deployed there to monitor the aftershocks series and to constrain the hypocentral pattern. Aftershock determinations obtained with a double-difference algorithm define a narrow epicentral zone of less than 10 km², ESE–WNW oriented. The events are mainly concentrated between 3 and 9 km depth. Focal solutions were computed for the main event and 12 aftershocks including the highest secondary one of 3.8 mbLg. They show mainly normal faulting with some strike-slip component and one of the nodal planes oriented NW–SE and dipping to the NE. Cross-correlation techniques applied to detect and associate events with similar waveforms, provided up to 33 families relating the 67% of the 326 relocated aftershocks. Families show event clusters grouped by periods and migrating from NW to SE. Interestingly, the narrow epicentral zone inferred here is located less than 4 km away from the 111-m high Itoiz dam. These hypocentral results, and the correlation observed between fluctuations of the reservoir water level and the seismic activity, favour the explanation of this foreshock–aftershock series as a rapid response case of reservoir-triggered seismicity, burst by the first impoundment of the Itoiz reservoir. The region is folded and affected by shallow dipping thrusts, and the Itoiz reservoir is located on the hangingwall of a low angle southward verging thrust, which might be a case sensible to water level fluctuations. However, continued seismic monitoring in the coming years is mandatory in this area to infer more reliable seismotectonic and hazard assessments.  相似文献   

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model     

lvaro Gonzlez  Miguel Vzquez-Prada  Javier B. Gmez  Amalio F. Pacheco 《Tectonophysics》2006,424(3-4):319

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.  相似文献   

Application of back-propagation networks in debris flow prediction   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

Tung-Chueng Chang  Ru-Jen Chao   《Engineering Geology》2006,85(3-4):270-280

Debris flows have caused serious loss of human lives and a lot of damage to properties in Taiwan over the past decades. Moreover, debris flows have brought massive mud causing water pollution in reservoirs and resulted in water shortage for daily life locally and affected agricultural irrigation and industrial usages seriously. A number of methods for prediction of debris flows have been studied. However, the successful prediction ratio of debris flows cannot always maintain a stable and reliable level. The objective of this study is to present a stable and reliable analytical model for occurrence predictions of debris flows. This study proposes an Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) model that was constructed by seven significant factors using back-propagation (BP) algorithm. These seven factors include (1) length of creek, (2) average slope, (3) effective watershed area, (4) shape coefficient, (5) median size of soil grain, (6) effective cumulative rainfall, and (7) effective rainfall intensity. A total of 178 potential cases of debris flows collected in eastern Taiwan were fed into the ANN model for training and testing. The average ratio of successful prediction reaching 93.82% demonstrates that the presented ANN model with seven significant factors can provide a stable and reliable result for the prediction of debris flows in hazard mitigation and guarding systems.  相似文献   

Modeling the cyclic swelling pressure of mudrock using artificial neural networks     

M. Moosavi  M.J. Yazdanpanah  R. Doostmohammadi 《Engineering Geology》2006,87(3-4):178-194

The stochastic nature of the cyclic swelling behavior of mudrock and its dependence on a large number of interdependent parameters was modeled using Time Delay Neural Networks (TDNNs). This method has facilitated predicting cyclic swelling pressure with an acceptable level of accuracy where developing a general mathematical model is almost impossible. A number of total pressure cells between shotcrete and concrete walls of the powerhouse cavern at Masjed–Soleiman Hydroelectric Powerhouse Project, South of Iran, where mudrock outcrops, confirmed a cyclic swelling pressure on the lining since 1999. In several locations, small cracks are generated which has raised doubts about long term stability of the powerhouse structure. This necessitated a study for predicting future swelling pressure. Considering the complexity of the interdependent parameters in this problem, TDNNs proved to be a powerful tool. The results of this modeling are presented in this paper.  相似文献   

地震快报系统     

邵平荣 《福建地震》2006,(Z2)

本文简述了开发地震快报系统的主要技术。  相似文献   

豫北平原浅层地下水资源可持续开发利用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

兰自亭  刘玉忠 《地下水》2005,27(4):229-231

豫北平原隶属黄河、海河两大流域,在平原区松散岩类中蕴藏着较丰富的地下水.随着工农业和城市化的发展,地下水资源的开发利用程度在逐步升高,合理地开发利用地下水资源的重要性日趋显著.主要论述了浅层含水岩组的特征、水动力条件、开发利用现状及与地下水开采相关的环境地质问题.分析了天然资源量的组成,说明了可采资源量的计算方法,指出有开采潜力区和超采区的分布.针对所存在的问题,提出了浅层地下水资源可持续开发利用的措施.  相似文献   

西藏俄卡地银多金属异常区地球化学     

王铨宇  杨树元 《云南地质》2005,24(3):298-302

异常形态、分布严格受推覆断裂控制,范围大、浓集中心明显,浓度变化及因子载荷表明。区内找Ag、Pb有利,而Sb又为其最佳指示元素。  相似文献   

基于气象因子的华中电网负荷预测方法研究   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文

胡江林  洪斌等 《应用气象学报》2002,13(5):600-608

在分析各种节假日负荷变化规律的基础上, 利用气象因子作预报变量, 使用动态的综合线性回归和自回归相结合的混合线性回归方法及非线性的人工神经网络方法来进行华中电网日负荷和日最大负荷及日最小负荷的预测。对12个月共365天的独立样本试预报表明, 该客观方案对华中电网负荷的预测精度可满足业务调度的需要。  相似文献