Hypotheses for earthquake occurrences     

Naveen  P. S. Moharir  V. K. Gaur 《Journal of Earth System Science》1983,92(3):261-281

Very little work has been done in generating alternatives to the Poisson process model. The work reported here deals with alternatives to the Poisson process model for the earthquakes and checks them using empirical data and the statistical hypothesis testing apparatus. The strategy used here for generating hypotheses is to compound the Poisson process. The parameter of the Poisson process is replaced by a random variable having prescribed density function. The density functions used are gamma, chi and extended (gamma/chi). The original distribution is then averaged out with respect to these density functions. For the compound Poisson processes the waiting time distributions for the future events are derived. As the parameters for the various statistical models for earthquake occurrences are not known, the problem is basically of composite hypothesis testing. One way of designing a test is to estimate these parameters and use them as true values. Momentmatching is used here to estimate the parameters. The results of hypothesis testing using data from Hindukush and North East India are presented.  相似文献   

Modern Numerical Ephemerides of Planets and the Importance of Ranging Observations for Their Creation     

E.V. Pitjeva 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2001,80(3-4):249-271

The JPL planetary and lunar ephemerides – DE200/LE200, DE403/LE403, DE405/LE405 and the planetary and lunar ephemerides, EPM87, EPM98, and EPM2000, constructed in the Institute of Applied Astronomy of RAS are described. Common properties and differences of the various ephemerides are given. Graphical comparisons of the DE ephemerides with each other and with the EPM ephemerides are presented. A fairly good agreement of planetary orbits is between DE403, DE405 and EPM98, EPM2000, respectively, over the interval of 120 years (1886–2006) covered by EPM98 and EPM2000. Some differences are explained by a slight disagreement in representing the orbits of Ceres, Pallas, and Vesta as they affect the planets. The accurate radar observations of planets and spacecraft make it possible not only to improve the orbital elements of planets but to determine a broad set of astronomical constants as well: km/AU, parameters of Mars rotation including its precessional rate, the masses of Jupiter, Ceres, Pallas, and Vesta, relativistic parameters of the PPN formalism, the variability of the gravitational constant G. These have been obtained in the fitting process of the DE405 and EPM2000 ephemerides to observational data, including nearly 80000 American and Russian radar observations of planets (1961–1997), ranging and doppler to the Viking and Pathfinder landers, and other miscellaneous measurements from various sources and spacecraft.  相似文献   

等幅侧向位移循环下柱混凝土纤维应变规律的试验研究     

傅剑平  李英民  王敏  陈小英  白绍良 《地震工程与工程振动》2005,25(6):88-95

在已完成的包括16个构件的等位移循环加载钢筋混凝土柱的系列试验中，通过在其中3根柱的塑性铰区沿混凝土受力方向安设位移计，较准确测定了混凝土测试标距内的平均应变在一个加载循环内的变化规律及其随周数增长的变化规律；发现了单周最大压应变随周数的增长而持续增大，单周最大名义拉应变随周数增长而持续减小的重要现象；并与柱顶水平力-水平位移滞回规律实测结果相对应，结合截面受力特征对所得单周和多周应变变化规律的成因作了分析。  相似文献   

老黏土地基承载力的确定   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

谭松林  王江 《地质科技情报》2007,26(4):76-78

对比分析了各种确定地基承载力的方法,阐述了理论公式计算确定老黏土地基承载力的重要性.结合武昌地区的工程实例,用各种方法计算确定了老黏土的地基承载力值.研究表明,原位测试方法得到的承载力值偏低,而理论公式计算较合理.为了提高老黏土地基承载力的可信度和精度,在岩土工程勘察中除采用原位测试方法外,有必要结合理论公式计算来获取老黏土地基承载力值.  相似文献   

A case study to verify methods for estimating transmissivity distributions along boreholes     

Åsa Fransson 《Hydrogeology Journal》2007,15(2):307-313

Two methods, both using data from fixed-interval-length hydraulic tests and geological mapping on different scales, have been utilised to estimate transmissivity distributions of individual fractures. Individual fracture properties are of importance in estimating transport of water and solutes; they influence the spreading of grout when sealing tunnels. One of the methods is non-parametric, while the other is based on combinatorics and the multiplication principle. The study verified the usefulness of both methods for estimating the probability of conductive and non-conductive fractures, and the transmissivity distributions. Data for estimating transmissivity distributions originate from flow logging of a borehole in Sweden. Fracture frequency data are from core logging and images using a borehole image processing system (BIPS). Estimated transmissivity distributions, based on flow log data from 3-m sections (test scale length, L: 3 m, and step length, dL: 3 m), were compared with transmissivities obtained directly from detailed, overlapping flow logging which identify individual conductive fractures (test scale, L: 0.5 m, step length, dL: 0.1 m). The latter data are considered to be an acceptable approximation of the individual fracture transmissivities; the agreement, compared with the calculated transmissivity distributions based on 3-m section data, is good for both methods.

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Resumen Se han utilizado dos métodos, ambos procesando datos de pruebas hidráulicas de longitud e intervalo fijo y mapas geológicos en distintas escalas, para estimar las distribuciones de transmisividad de fracturas individuales. Las propiedades de fracturas individuales son de importancia para estimar el transporte de agua y solutos; las propiedades influyen en la propagación de lechada al sellar túneles. Uno de los métodos es no paramétrico mientras que el otro se basa en el principio de multiplicación y combinatorio. El estudio verifica la utilidad de ambos métodos para estimar la probabilidad de fracturas conductivas y no conductivas y las distribuciones de transmisividad. Los datos para estimar las distribuciones de transmisividad se originan del registro de flujo de un pozo en Suecia. Los datos de frecuencia de fracturas provienen de registros de núcleo e imágenes usando un Sistema de Procesamiento de Imágenes de Pozo (BIPS). Se compararon las distribuciones estimadas de transmisividad basadas en datos del registro de flujo en secciones de 3 m (longitud de escala de la prueba L: 3 m, y escalón de longitud dL: 3 m), con transmisividades obtenidas directamente de registros detallados de flujo superpuesto el cual identifica fracturas conductivas individuales (escala de la prueba, L: 0.5 m, escalón de longitud, dL: 0.1 m). Los últimos datos se consideran una aproximación aceptable de las transmisividades de fracturas individuales; la consistencia, comparada con las distribuciones de transmisividad calculada basadas en datos de sección de 3 m, es buena para ambos métodos.

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Résumé Deux méthodes ont été testées afin d’estimer la distribution des transmissivités de fractures unitaires; toutes deux utilisent des données issues de tests hydrauliques effectués à intervalles réguliers et de cartographies géologiques à plusieurs échelles. La connaissance des propriétés des fractures unitaires est importante pour estimer le transport d’eau et de solutés; elles influencent en outre l’étalement du coulis lors du scellement des tunnels. La première méthode est non-paramétrique, et la seconde repose sur l’analyse combinatoire et le principe de multiplication. Cette étude a vérifié l’utilité des deux méthodes pour estimer la probabilité d’occurrence de fractures conductrices et non-conductrices, et la distribution des transmissivités. Les distributions des transmissivités ont été estimées à partir de diagraphies effectuées sur un forage situé en Suède. Les densités de fracturation proviennent de carottages et d’imagerie BIPS (Borehole Image Processing System). Les distributions estimées des transmissivités, basées sur des diagraphies de flux effectuées sur des sections de 3 m (échelle du test L:3 m; pas dL:3 m), ont été comparées aux transmissivités obtenues sur des diagraphies de flux détaillées et se chevauchant, identifiant les fractures conductrices unitaires (échelle du test L: 0.5 m ; pas dL: 0.1 m). Il est admis que ces dernières données représentent une approximation satisfaisante des transmissivités des fractures unitaires; les deux méthodes sont en accord avec les distributions des transmissivités calculées à partir des données acquises sur des sections de 3 m.

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Hydraulic properties of the crystalline basement   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

Ingrid Stober  Kurt Bucher 《Hydrogeology Journal》2007,15(2):213-224

Hydraulic tests in boreholes, up to 4.5 km deep, drilled into continental crystalline basement revealed hydraulic conductivity (K) values that range over nine log-units from 10⁻¹³−10⁻⁴ m s⁻¹. However, K values for fractured basement to about 1 km depth are typically restricted to the range from 10⁻⁸ to 10⁻⁶ m s⁻¹. New data from an extended injection test at the KTB research site (part of the Continental Deep Drilling Program in Germany) at 4 km depth provide K=5 10⁻⁸ m s⁻¹. The summarized K-data show a very strong dependence on lithology and on the local deformation history of a particular area. In highly fractured regions, granite tends to be more pervious than gneiss. The fracture porosity is generally saturated with Na–Cl or Ca–Na–Cl type waters with salinities ranging from <1 to >100 g L⁻¹. The basement permeability is well within the conditions for advective fluid and heat transport. Consequently, fluid pressure is hydrostatic and a Darcy flow mechanism is possible to a great depth. Topography-related hydraulic gradients in moderately conductive basement may result in characteristic advective flow rates of up to 100 L a⁻¹ m⁻² and lead to significant advective heat and solute transfer in the upper brittle crust. An erratum to this article can be found at  相似文献   

Parameter identification of framed structures using an improved finite element model‐updating method—Part I: formulation and verification     

Eunjong Yu  Ertugrul Taciroglu  John W. Wallace 《地震工程与结构动力学》2007,36(5):619-639

In this study, we formulate an improved finite element model‐updating method to address the numerical difficulties associated with ill conditioning and rank deficiency. These complications are frequently encountered model‐updating problems, and occur when the identification of a larger number of physical parameters is attempted than that warranted by the information content of the experimental data. Based on the standard bounded variables least‐squares (BVLS) method, which incorporates the usual upper/lower‐bound constraints, the proposed method (henceforth referred to as BVLSrc) is equipped with novel sensitivity‐based relative constraints. The relative constraints are automatically constructed using the correlation coefficients between the sensitivity vectors of updating parameters. The veracity and effectiveness of BVLSrc is investigated through the simulated, yet realistic, forced‐vibration testing of a simple framed structure using its frequency response function as input data. By comparing the results of BVLSrc with those obtained via (the competing) pure BVLS and regularization methods, we show that BVLSrc and regularization methods yield approximate solutions with similar and sufficiently high accuracy, while pure BVLS method yields physically inadmissible solutions. We further demonstrate that BVLSrc is computationally more efficient, because, unlike regularization methods, it does not require the laborious a priori calculations to determine an optimal penalty parameter, and its results are far less sensitive to the initial estimates of the updating parameters. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

多部多普勒雷达同步探测三维风场反演系统   总被引：18，自引：5，他引：18  

周海光  王玉彬 《气象》2002,28(9):7-11

“我国重大气候和天气灾害的形成机理与预测理论研究”项目首次启用双多普勒雷达组网同步观测，如何从同步观测的暴雨资料中反演三维场，具有重要的理论和现实意义，根据项目需要，建立了国内首套多部多普勒天气雷达同步探测三维风场反演软件系统，并反演出2001年7月13日由双多普勒雷达同步观测到的一个中β尺度暴雨系统的三维风场，结果显示，该三维风场结构合理，系统能满足外场试验的要求。  相似文献   

DLG产品质量的模糊综合评判     

李大军  陈荣清  赵宝贵 《华东地质学院学报》2002,25(3):250-253

根据DLG产品的质量特性及相应的权值，采用模糊数学的方法进行评价。通过选用不同的隶属函数和不同的评判模型对同一数字线划图进行了评价，得出了一些有益的结论。  相似文献   

形变反演模型的非线性平差   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陶本藻 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2001,26(6):504-508

阐述了反演问题参数估计的质量要求，将反演理论中的分辨率和精度与平差中的良好统计性质作了对比分析，为使反演参数得到良好估计，提出平差处理对策。针对反演问题经常是非线性模型，提出了非线性平差的几种方法，最后给出参数筛选的原则和相应的统计检验方法。  相似文献