因子集成及综合相似预测模型的研究和应用     

马振锋 《成都信息工程学院学报》1999,(1)

针对西南区域（云、贵、川、渝）汛期（６－８月）旱涝预测问题,建立了一种以多种物理因子为基础的西南区域降水量预测模型,即因子集成及综合相似预测模型。该模型既考虑影响西南区域汛期降水的主要物理因素变化,又注重区域要素场自身演变规律。对于影响汛期旱涝的物理因子,采用对多个因素进行综合集成的办法,来体现所有因素对旱涝影响的整体作用。为了强调预测结果的客观性,我们借鉴目前ＮＷＰ集合预报思想,引入综合相似方法,给出西南区域大范围汛期降水距平百分率预测结果。近年来业务试用表明,该方法预测准确率稳定,有明显的预报技巧  相似文献   

Surface morphology of soil cracks in Yuanmou Dry-hot Valley Region, Southwest China   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Donghong Xiong  Yi Long  Dongchun Yan  Xiaoning Lu  Zhonghua Ji  Haidong Fang 《山地科学学报》2009,6(4):373-379

Surface morphology of soil cracks is one of the important factors influencing the water evaporation rate in cracked soil in Yuanmou Dry-hot Valley Region, Southwest China. Quantitative study of the complicated surface morphology of soil cracks is a prerequisite for further studies of soil-cracking mechanisms. The present paper establishes a quantitative indicator system by application of concepts and methods originating from Fractal Geometry and Network Analysis. These indicators can effectively express the complicated features of soilcrack network structure. Furthermore, a series of values related to soil-crack morphology was obtained by image processing on field photos of soil-crack quads, and gradation criteria for the degree of development of soil cracks were determined. Finally, the changes in values of the morphological indicators under different degrees of development were analyzed in detail. Our results indicate that （1） the degree of development of soil cracks can be divided into five grades, i.e., feeble development, slight development, medium development, intensive development and extremely intensive development; （2） the values of the indicators change predictably with increasing degree of development of soil cracks. The area density （Dc） increases, and both the area-weighted mean ratio of crack area to perimeter （AWMARP）, which reflects the intensity of cracking, and the index r, which is related to the connectivity of a soil crack, grow uniformly （albeit with different forms）. AWMRAP increases at a geometric rate while r shows logarithmmic growth, indicating a gradual increase in the connectivity of a soil crack. Nevertheless, the areaweighted mean of soil-crack fractal dimension （AWMFRAC） shows a decreasing trend, indicating a gradual decline in the complexity of cracks as area density increases.  相似文献   

关于建立豫西南恐龙蛋化石自然保护区的思考     

王德有  何萍  孔小卫 《河南国土资源》2000,(4)

该文详细叙述了全国建立自然保护区的形势和概况。作者提出 :应抓住机遇、积极开展工作 ,力争早日建成“豫西南恐龙蛋化石地质遗迹国家级自然保护区”。同时 ,深入探讨了建立自然保护区的重要意义和化石与文物的区别。最后 ,作者提出了对恐龙蛋化石应依法进行保护和管理以及建立自然保护区应与地区经济发展相结合的建议。  相似文献   

冬季格陵兰以东区域海冰异常对北大西洋风暴轴的影响研究     

劳汉琼  朱伟军  张唯 《气象与减灾研究》2006,29(4):6-11

对45个冬季格陵兰以东区域海冰密集度场与北大西洋500hPa位势高度滤波方差作奇异值(SVD)分析,结果表明:SVD得到的第一对空间典型分布反映了冬季格陵兰以东区域海冰异常与风暴轴的异常变化密切相关。进一步的合成分析显示,海冰异常使得大气环流调整,气压梯度、天气尺度涡动热量的经向通量和垂直通量、局地斜压性均发生改变,从而对风暴轴的强度及中心的位移造成影响。  相似文献   

Spatial demography of Calanus finmarchicus in the Irminger Sea     

M.R. Heath  J. Rasmussen  J. Allen  A.S. Brierley  A. Bunker  R. Davidson  W.S.C. Gurney  S. Hay  A.G. Hirst  A. Ingvarsdottir  P. Lindeque  D. Montagnes  R. Pollard  R.A. Saunders  G. Smerdon  P. Walsham  L. Webster 《Progress in Oceanography》2008,76(1):39-88

Continuous Plankton Recorder data suggest that the Irminger Sea supports a major proportion of the surface-living population of the copepod Calanus finmarchicus in the northern North Atlantic, but there have been few studies of its population dynamics in the region. In this paper, we document the seasonal changes in the demographic structure of C. finmarchicus in the Irminger Sea from a field programme during 2001/2002, and the associations between its developmental stages and various apparent bio-physical zones. Overwintering stages were found widely at depth (>500 m) across the Irminger Sea, and surviving females were widely distributed in the surface waters the following spring. However, recruitment of the subsequent generation was concentrated around the fringes of the Irminger Sea basin, along the edges of the Irminger and East Greenland Currents, and not in the central basin. In late summer animals were found descending back to overwintering depths in the Central Irminger Sea. The key factors dictating this pattern of recruitment appear to be (a) the general circulation regime, (b) predation on eggs in the spring, possibly by the surviving G0 stock, and (c) mortality of first feeding naupliar stages in the central basin where food concentrations appear to be low throughout the year.We compared the demographic patterns in 2001/2002 with observations from the only previous major survey in 1963 and with data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) surveys. In both previous data sets, the basic structure of G0 ascent from the central basin and G1 recruitment around the fringes was a robust feature, suggesting that it is a recurrent phenomenon. The Irminger Sea is a complex mixing zone between polar and Atlantic water masses, and it has also been identified as a site of sporadic deep convection. The physical oceanographic characteristics of the region are therefore potentially sensitive to climate fluctuations. Despite this, the abundance of C. finmarchicus in the region, as measured by the CPR surveys, appears not to have responded to climate factors linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation Index, in contrast with the stocks in eastern Atlantic areas. We speculate that this may because biological factors (production and mortality), rather than transport processes are the key factors affecting the population dynamics in the Irminger Sea.  相似文献   

Evaluation of anthropogenic carbon in the Nordic Seas using observed relationships of N, P and C versus CFCs     

Sara Jutterström  Emil Jeansson  Leif G. Anderson  E. Peter Jones  James H. Swift 《Progress in Oceanography》2008,78(1):78-84

Several methods to compute the anthropogenic component of total dissolved inorganic carbon () in the ocean have been reported, all in some way deducing (a) the effect by the natural processes, and (b) the background concentration in the pre-industrial scenario. In this work we present a method of calculating using nutrient and CFC data, which takes advantage of the linear relationships found between nitrate (N), phosphate (P) and CFC-11 in the Nordic Seas sub-surface waters. The basis of the method is that older water has lower CFC-11 concentration and also has been exposed to more sinking organic matter that has decayed, resulting in the slopes of P versus CFC-11 and N versus CFC-11 being close to the classic Redfield ratio of 1:16. Combining this with the slope in total alkalinity (A_T) versus CFC-11 to correct for the dissolution of metal carbonates gives us the possibility to deduce the concentration of anthropogenic C_T in the Nordic Seas. This further allowed us to compute the inventory of anthropogenic C_T below 250 m in the Nordic Seas in spring 2002, to ∼1.2 Gt C.  相似文献   

The Greenland Sea tracer experiment 1996-2002: Horizontal mixing and transport of Greenland Sea Intermediate Water     

M.-J. Messias  A.J. Watson  K.I.C. Oliver  E. Fogelqvist  S. Bacon  N. Bergman  M. Danielsen  E. Jeansson  S.R. Olafsdottir  T. Tanhua  J.R. Ledwell 《Progress in Oceanography》2008,78(1):85-105

In summer 1996, a tracer release experiment using sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆) was launched in the intermediate-depth waters of the central Greenland Sea (GS), to study the mixing and ventilation processes in the region and its role in the northern limb of the Atlantic overturning circulation. Here we describe the hydrographic context of the experiment, the methods adopted and the results from the monitoring of the horizontal tracer spread for the 1996-2002 period documented by ∼10 shipboard surveys. The tracer marked “Greenland Sea Arctic Intermediate Water” (GSAIW). This was redistributed in the gyre by variable winter convection penetrating only to mid-depths, reaching at most 1800 m depth during the strongest event observed in 2002.For the first 18 months, the tracer remained mainly in the Greenland Sea. Vigorous horizontal mixing within the Greenland Sea gyre and a tight circulation of the gyre interacting slowly with the other basins under strong topographic influences were identified. We use the tracer distributions to derive the horizontal shear at the scale of the Greenland Sea gyre, and rates of horizontal mixing at ∼10 and ∼300 km scales. Mixing rates at small scale are high, several times those observed at comparable depths at lower latitudes. Horizontal stirring at the sub-gyre scale is mediated by numerous and vigorous eddies. Evidence obtained during the tracer release suggests that these play an important role in mixing water masses to form the intermediate waters of the central Greenland Sea.By year two, the tracer had entered the surrounding current systems at intermediate depths and small concentrations were in proximity to the overflows into the North Atlantic. After 3 years, the tracer had spread over the Nordic Seas basins. Finally by year six, an intensive large survey provided an overall synoptic documentation of the spreading of the tagged GSAIW in the Nordic Seas. A circulation scheme of the tagged water originating from the centre of the GS is deduced from the horizontal spread of the tracer. We present this circulation and evaluate the transport budgets of the tracer between the GS and the surroundings basins. The overall residence time for the tagged GSAIW in the Greenland Sea was about 2.5 years. We infer an export of intermediate water of GSAIW from the GS of 1 to 1.85 Sv (1 Sv = 10⁶ m³ s⁻¹) for the period from September 1998 to June 2002 based on the evolution of the amount of tracer leaving the GS gyre. There is strong exchange between the Greenland Sea and Arctic Ocean via Fram Strait, but the contribution of the Greenland Sea to the Denmark Strait and Iceland Scotland overflows is modest, probably not exceeding 6% during the period under study.  相似文献   

基于REOF-EEMD的西南地区气候变化区域分异特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘晓琼  孙曦亮  刘彦随  张健  赵新正  芮旸 《地理研究》2020,39(5):1215-1232

西南地区是全球变化区域响应的特殊地区,探究其气候变化区域分异特征具有重要的科学意义。文中选用REOF方法开展研究区气温和降水变化特征的空间分区,借助EEMD与BG分割算法等方法细致辨析了不同气候分区的气候演变特征。结果显示：① 西南地区年均温和年均降水变化均可划分为3个亚区,各自的空间界限高度相似,但降水Ⅱ、Ⅲ区的界限更偏南。② 20世纪50年代以来各气温亚区的年均温显著升高,川渝气温变化与全球变暖同步,黔西、黔中、滇北散布若干点状冷区。各降水亚区的时空差异明显,相较Ⅲ区,Ⅰ、Ⅱ区年均降水的波动性及年代际变化的差异更显著。③ ENSO事件对研究区气候变化的影响深远,不同气温、降水亚区对其的响应不尽相同。④ 不同气温亚区年均温序列突变点的收敛性较强,大致发生在1997年前后。不同降水亚区年均降水序列突变点的收敛性较弱。⑤ 各气温亚区年均温增加的持续性较强,Ⅱ、Ⅲ区尤甚。降水Ⅰ、Ⅱ区降水变化趋势不甚明显且具有一定的随机性,Ⅰ区的可能呈减速趋缓的减湿趋势,Ⅱ区的可能出现弱度减湿趋势,Ⅲ区降水趋于弱增。  相似文献   

云南白水台现代内生钙华微层的特征及其古气候重建意义   总被引：11，自引：1，他引：11  

刘再华  李红春  游镇烽  万乃容  孙海龙  刘香玲 《地球学报》2006,27(5):479-486

在云南白水台采集一现代内生钙华样品,该样品形成于1998年5月至2001年11月。切片观察,钙华中可见薄的褐色疏松微层和厚的白色致密微层,且交替出现。结合钙华样品的高分辨率碳氧稳定同位素测试,发现薄的褐色疏松微层(1.5~2.2mm)在每年的雨季(4~9月)形成,而厚的白色致密微层(5~8mm)在旱季(10~3月)形成。通过与气象记录的对比,建立起了这些钙华亚年层厚度和稳定同位素特征与气候变化的关系。结果发现:薄的微层及其低δ13C和δ18O值形成于温暖湿润的雨季。在雨季,雨水的稀释作用导致了内生钙华沉积的减慢和低的13C含量,而钙华的低18O值则主要与亚热带季风地区的雨量效应有关。因此,钙华微层厚度,以及δ13C和δ18O的显著降低反映了高的降雨条件,反之,则反映干旱的气候条件。本研究说明钙华可以提供有价值的年际甚至季节尺度的气候变化信息。  相似文献   

Timescale of magma chamber processes revealed by U–Pb ages,trace element contents and morphology of zircons from the Ishizuchi caldera,Southwest Japan Arc          下载免费PDF全文

Mami Takehara  Kenji Horie  Kenichiro Tani  Takeyoshi Yoshida  Tomokazu Hokada  Shoichi Kiyokawa 《Island Arc》2017,26(2)

U–Pb geochronology and trace element chemistry of zircons in a microscale analysis were applied to the Ishizuchi caldera in the Outer Zone of Southwest Japan in order to estimate the timescale of the magma process, in particular, the magma differentiation. This caldera is composed mainly of ring fault complexes, major pyroclastic flow deposits, and felsic intrusion including central plutons. Using SHRIMP‐IIe, our new U–Pb zircon ages obtained from the major pyroclastic flow deposits (Tengudake pyroclastic flow deposits), granitic rocks from central plutons (Soushikei granodiorite and Teppoishigawa quartz monzonite), and rhyolite from the outer ring dike (Tenchuseki rhyolite) and the inner ring dike (Bansyodani rhyolite) are 14.80 ±0.11 Ma, 14.56 ±0.10 Ma, 14.53 ±0.12 Ma, 14.55 ±0.11 Ma and 14.21 ±0.19 Ma, respectively. Based on the U–Pb ages, the Hf contents and the REE patterns of the zircons, three stages are recognized in the evolutionary history of the magma chamber beneath the Ishizuchi caldera: (i) climactic Tengudake pyroclastic flow eruption; (ii) Tenchuseki rhyolite intrusion into the outer ring dike and central pluton intrusion; and (iii) Bansyodani rhyolite intrusion in the inner ring dike. These results indicate a magma evolution history of the Ishizuchi caldera system which took at least ca 600 kyr from the climatic caldera‐forming eruption to the post‐caldera intrusions. Our new geochronological data suggest that the Ishizuchi caldera formed as part of the voluminous and episodic magmatism that occurred in the wide zone along the Miocene forearc basin of Southwest Japan during the inception of the young Philippine Sea Plate subduction.  相似文献