Assessing parameter identifiability for multiple performance criteria to constrain model parameters     

Björn Guse  Jens Kiesel  Matthias Pfannerstill  Nicola Fohrer 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(7):1158-1172

ABSTRACT

Reliable simulations of hydrological models require that model parameters are precisely identified. In constraining model parameters to small ranges, high parameter identifiability is achieved. In this study, it is investigated how precisely model parameters can be constrained in relation to a set of contrasting performance criteria. For this, model simulations with identical parameter samplings are carried out with a hydrological model (SWAT) applied to three contrasting catchments in Germany (lowland, mid-range mountains, alpine regions). Ten performance criteria including statistical metrics and signature measures are calculated for each model simulation. Based on the parameter identifiability that is computed separately for each performance criterion, model parameters are constrained to smaller ranges individually for each catchment. An iterative repetition of model simulations with successively constrained parameter ranges leads to more precise parameter identifiability and improves model performance. Based on these results, a more consistent handling of model parameters is achieved for model calibration.  相似文献   

攀西特色水果产业发展面临的限制、问题与建议     

沈茂英 《山地学报》2004,(Z1)

以攀西特色水果产业发展动态为主,分析指出技术和市场是约束该产业进一步发展壮大的双因子。其形成因素多,包括劳动者素质低下和家庭经营规模小、生产与市场之间的联系渠道不畅和农村技术服务体系发育滞后等;并提出促进特色水果产业壮大的建议。  相似文献   

A method for the interpolation of nonnegative functions with an application to contaminant load estimation     

A. M. Michalak  P. K. Kitanidis 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2005,19(1):8-23

The objective of this work is to extend kriging, a geostatistical interpolation method, to honor parameter nonnegativity. The new method uses a prior probability distribution based on reflected Brownian motion that enforces this constraint. The work presented in this paper focuses on interpolation problems where the unknown is a function of a single variable (e.g. time), and is developed both for the case with and without measurement error in the available data. The algorithms presented for conditional simulations are computationally efficient, particularly in the case with no measurement error. We present an application to the interpolation of dissolved arsenic concentration data from the North Fork of the Humboldt River, Nevada.  相似文献   

主成分估计与附加条件的参数平差     

宋力杰 《测绘工程》1997,6(1):24-27

证明了主成分估计实质上是附着条件的参数平差，并根据此性质结合算例分析了主成分估计的局限性，提出了改进方法。  相似文献   

Stress constraints and hydrofracturing stress data for the continental crust   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

F. Rummel  G. Möhring-Erdmann  J. Baumgärtner 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1986,124(4-5):875-895

Faulting and seismicity in the upper continental crust require considerable differential stresses. Application of experimentally developed friction, fracture and flow laws shows that high differential stresses can only exist in the uppermost crust. Direct hydraulic fracturing measurements in deep boreholes seem to support this rock mechanics conclusion. The experimental data base presently consists of approximately 500 hydrofrac tests conducted in about 100 boreholes at about 30 different geographical locations. To illustrate the variation of measured stresses with depth, the data are expressed as dimensionless horizontal stresses in the formS _H,h/S_v=(/z)+, whereS _v=gz Extrapolation of the experimental data to greater depth shows that the minor horizontal stress approaches the valueS _h/S_v=0.5 which limits friction on wet faults, and that the major horizontal stress approaches a value close toS _H/S_v=1 at rather shallow depth (5 to 10 km.). This limits faulting and seismicity in most of the upper crust to either strike-slip or normal faults. The lower boundary for seismicity is mainly dependent on tectonic strain accumulation and rock creep at the environmental conditions at depth.  相似文献   

A cross entropy method for flood frequency analysis     

N. C. Lind  H. P. Hong  V. Solana 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1989,3(3):191-202

The cross-entropy method with fractile constraints has been developed to estimate a random variable when the data are a set of independent observations of the variable. The method can claim several advantages over existing methods. It uses a reference distribution like the prior distribution in Bayesian analysis and likewise generates a posterior distribution.The method is of interest, in particular, because it satisfies two fundamental requirements for selfconsistency in the analysis of a probabilistic system based on data: a principle of invariance and a principle of data monotonicity.The method is applied to flood analysis. Robustness of the minimum cross-entropy method is compared with other methods: the methods of moments and the maximum likehood.  相似文献   

Variations in Stable Carbon Isotopic Composition of n-Alkanes from Ordovician and Triassic-Derived Oils in Lunnan Oilfield, Tarim Basin, NW China： Global Paleoenvironmental Constraints     

卢鸿孙永革  彭平安 《中国地球化学学报》2004,23(3):207-219

Molecular stable carbon isotope technique was employed to study well-sourced crude oils collected from a single drilling well and from the entire Lunnan oilfield, Tarim Basin, NW China. The stable carbon isotopic composition of n-alkanes from crude oils showed that Ordovi-clan-derived oils are enriched in ^13C and Triassic-derived oils are depleted in ^13C. This is consistent with the distribution and evolution trend of stable carbon isotope ratios in crude oils/organic matter from all over the world in geological history (Stahl, 1977; Andrusevich et al. ,1998). An extensive survey of literature indicates that, except for thermal maturity, organic matter input and depositional environment, paleoenvironmental background is another key factor that affects the stable carbon isotopic composition of Ordovician- and Triassic-derived crude oils. The results showed that gas chromatographic-isotope ratio mass spectrometry ( GC-C-IRMS), combining with biogeoehemical evolution of organic matter in geological history, may be a powerful tool in refining oil/oil, oil/source correlations in multi-age, multi-source petroliferous basins like Tarim.  相似文献   

Modelling of evaporation in a sparse millet crop using a two-source model including sensible heat advection within the canopy     

M. R. Lund  H. Soegaard 《Journal of Hydrology》2003,280(1-4):124-144

During two successive growing seasons meteorological measurements were made in a pearl millet field in the Sahel to investigate the evaporation process in relation to crop growth. The evaporation was measured by eddy correlation and simulated using the Shuttleworth Wallace (SW) model [Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 111 (1985) 839–855]. To take sun height and multi-layer scattering into account a radiation balance model was formulated. The model indicates that partitioning of the net radiation between the vegetation and the soil may be estimated (r²=0.94) from the fraction of diffuse radiation, the leaf area index and an attenuation coefficient, but that the attenuation coefficient may not be similar in different locations. To solve the SW-model with respect to the soil resistance an iterative solution was employed with the total evaporation estimated from the Bowen-ratio calculated from eddy correlation measurements. The procedure made it possible to derive stable estimates of soil resistance at soil evaporation rates down to 25 W m⁻². The soil resistance was found to be in accordance with evaporation through a dry surface layer. The SW-model indicates, that advection of sensible heat from the dry soil to the plants, increases transpiration considerably. This will cause management techniques, such as mulching and dry farming, aimed at reducing soil evaporation to be less effective than might be anticipated. The effects of raising the leaf area index to improve the microclimate is discussed in relation to management of the available water and crop security.  相似文献   

湖南地热资源的构造制约与勘查标志   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

彭头平  彭冰霞等 《湖南地质》2002,21(1):56-60

针对湖南省境内地热资源的区带分布特征，分析了NE向或NNE向花垣－永顺－桑植断裂、靖县－溆浦断裂、新宁－娄底－宁乡断裂、连云山－双牌断裂、临武－郴州断裂、汝城－桂东断裂对区域地热资源分布的控制作用。地热资源的分布主要受区域主干断裂控制，局限于主干断裂上盘的一定范围内，其赋水岩层主要为古生界灰石和花岗岩破碎带，单个热泉的产出距主干断裂20－40km，热泉温度分布不仅与赋水围岩有关，而且与热泉产出部位的构造强度关系密切，其中构造强度较大的湘西北及湘东南地区以中温热泉为特征，而在构造强度较小的湘东及湘西南地 区则以低温热泉为主。在 综合地热分布相关的构造控制因素前提下，提出了省内寻找地热资源的构造标志。  相似文献   

Geodynamic significance of the Raspas Metamorphic Complex (SW Ecuador): geochemical and isotopic constraints     

Delphine Bosch  Piercarlo Gabriele  Henriette Lapierre  Jean-Louis Malfere  Etienne Jaillard   《Tectonophysics》2002,345(1-4)

The Raspas Metamorphic Complex of southwestern Ecuador is regarded as the southernmost remnant of oceanic and continental terranes accreted in the latest Jurassic–Early Cretaceous. It consists of variably metamorphosed rock types. (1) Mafic and ultramafic rocks metamorphosed under high-pressure (HP) conditions (eclogite facies) show oceanic plateau affinities with flat REE chondrite-normalized patterns, Nd_{150 Ma} ranging from +4.6 to 9.8 and initial Pb isotopic ratios intermediate between MORB and OIB. (2) Sedimentary rocks metamorphosed under eclogitic conditions exhibit LREE enriched patterns, strong negative Eu anomalies, Rb, Nb, U, Th, Pb enrichments, low Nd_{150 Ma} values (from −6.4 to −9.5), and high initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and ^206,207,208Pb/²⁰⁴Pb isotopic ratios suggesting they were originally sediments derived from the erosion of an old continental crust. (3) Epidote-bearing amphibolites show N-MORB affinities with LREE depleted patterns, LILE, Zr, Hf and Th depletion, high Nd_{150 Ma} (>+10) and low initial Pb isotopic ratios.The present-day well defined internal structure of the Raspas Metamorphic Complex seems to be inconsistent with the formerly proposed interpretation of a “tectonic mélange”. The association of oceanic plateau rocks and continent-derived sediments both metamorphosed in HP conditions suggests that the thin edge of the oceanic plateau first entered the subduction zone and dragged sediments downward of the accretionary wedge along the Wadatti–Benioff zone. Subsequently, when its thickest part arrived into the subduction zone, the oceanic plateau jammed the subduction processes, due to its high buoyancy.In Ecuador and Colombia, the latest Jurassic–Early Cretaceous suture involves HP oceanic plateau rocks and N-MORB rocks metamorphosed under lower grades, suggesting a composite or polyphase nature for the latest Jurassic–Early Cretaceous accretionary event.  相似文献