A BME solution of the inverse problem for saturated groundwater flow   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  

M. L.?SerreEmail author  G.?Christakos  H.?Li  C. T.?Miller 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2003,17(6):354-369

In most real-world hydrogeologic situations, natural heterogeneity and measurement errors introduce major sources of uncertainty in the solution of the inverse problem. The Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method of modern geostatistics offers an efficient solution to the inverse problem by first assimilating various physical knowledge bases (hydrologic laws, water table elevation data, uncertain hydraulic resistivity measurements, etc.) and then producing robust estimates of the subsurface variables across space. We present specific methods for implementing the BME conceptual framework to solve an inverse problem involving Darcys law for subsurface flow. We illustrate one of these methods in the case of a synthetic one-dimensional case study concerned with the estimation of hydraulic resistivity conditioned on soft data and hydraulic head measurements. The BME framework processes the physical knowledge contained in Darcys law and generates accurate estimates of hydraulic resistivity across space. The optimal distribution of hard and soft data needed to minimize the associated estimation error at a specified sampling cost is determined. This work was supported by grants from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (Grant no. 5 P42 ES05948 and P30ES10126), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Grant no. 60-00RFQ041), the Army Research Office (Grant no. DAAG55-98-1-0289), and the National Science Foundation under Agreement No. DMS-0112069.  相似文献   

Stochastic estimation of facies using ground penetrating radar data   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

S.?MoyseyEmail author  J.?Caers  R.?Knight  R. M.?Allen-King 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2003,17(5):306-318

Explicitly defining large-scale heterogeneity is a necessary step of groundwater model calibration if accurate estimates of flow and transport are to be made. In this work, neural networks are used to estimate radar facies probabilities from ground penetrating radar (GPR) images, yielding stochastic facies-based models that honour the large-scale architecture of the subsurface. For synthetic GPR images, a neural network was able to correctly identify radar facies with an accuracy of approximately 90%. Manual interpretation of a set of 450 MHz GPR field data from the Borden aquifer resulted in the identification of four radar facies. Of these, a neural network was able to identify two facies with an accuracy of near 80% and one with an accuracy of 44%. The neural network was not able to identify the fourth facies, likely due to the choice of defining facies characteristics. Sequential indicator simulation was used to generate facies realizations conditioned to the radar facies probabilities. Numerical simulations indicate that significant improvements in the prediction of solute transport are possible when GPR is used to constrain the facies model compared to using well data alone, especially when data are sparse.This work was supported by funding to R. Knight under Grant No. DE-FG07–00ER15118-A000, Environmental Management Science Program, Office of Science and Technology, Office of Environment Management, United States Department of Energy (DOE). However, any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of DOE. Further support was provided by a Stanford Graduate Fellowship to S. Moysey. The authors would also like to thank James Irving for his assistance with processing of the radar data.  相似文献   

扎基斯坦矿床河西段水文地质试验的可行性分析     

王领柱 《新疆地质》2002,20(2):163-166

在分析扎吉斯坦矿床河西段水文地质条件的基础上,对该地段进行水文地质试验的可行性做了较为详细的论述,提出了无压-承压井抽水模式和“拦水坝”式冲孔洗井等新工艺。  相似文献   

An interval-parameter multi-stage stochastic programming model for water resources management under uncertainty   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Y.P. Li  G.H. Huang  S.L. Nie 《Advances in water resources》2006

In this study, an interval-parameter multi-stage stochastic linear programming (IMSLP) method has been developed for water resources decision making under uncertainty. The IMSLP is a hybrid methodology of inexact optimization and multi-stage stochastic programming. It has three major advantages in comparison to the other optimization techniques. Firstly, it extends upon the existing multi-stage stochastic programming method by allowing uncertainties expressed as probability density functions and discrete intervals to be effectively incorporated within the optimization framework. Secondly, penalties are exercised with recourse against any infeasibility, which permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised water-allocation targets are violated. Thirdly, it cannot only handle uncertainties through constructing a set of scenarios that is representative for the universe of possible outcomes, but also reflect dynamic features of the system conditions through transactions at discrete points in time over the planning horizon. The developed IMSLP method is applied to a hypothetical case study of water resources management. The results are helpful for water resources managers in not only making decisions of water allocation but also gaining insight into the tradeoffs between environmental and economic objectives.  相似文献   

Steady- and transient-state inversion in hydrogeology by successive flux estimation     

Philippe Pasquier  Denis Marcotte 《Advances in water resources》2006,29(12):1934-1952

A calibration method to solve the groundwater inverse problem under steady- and transient-state conditions is presented. The method compares kriged and numerical head field gradients to modify hydraulic conductivity without the use of non-linear optimization techniques. The process is repeated iteratively until a close match with piezometric data is reached. The approach includes a damping factor to avoid divergence and oscillation of the solution in areas of low hydraulic gradient and a weighting factor to account for temporal head variation in transient simulations. The efficiency of the method in terms of computing time and calibration results is demonstrated with a synthetic field. It is shown that the proposed method provides parameter fields that reproduce both hydraulic conductivity and piezometric data in few forward model solutions. Stochastic numerical experiments are conducted to evaluate the sensitivity of the method to the damping function and to the head field estimation errors.  相似文献   

可控源音频大地电磁测深法应用实例   总被引：8，自引：2，他引：8  

黄力军  陆桂福  刘瑞德 《物探化探计算技术》2006,28(4):337-341

目前对电法的探测深度要求越来越高,常规电法有时难以满足实际工作需要。与常规电法相比,可控源音频大地电磁测深法具有探测深度大、设备相对轻便和横向分辨率高等特点,已广泛应用于地热资源、水文地质、有色金属矿产和工程地质勘查工作之中,并取得了令人十分满意的实际应用效果。这里介绍的是一些具有代表性可控源音频大地电磁测深应用实例和应用成果,这些实例基本函概了目前电法的主要应用范畴,常规电法难以胜任的地质调查工作。实例中包括断陷盆地型地热资源和深部基岩裂隙水调查,危机矿山深部找矿和复杂地形条件下铁路隧道工程勘查。  相似文献   

大南湖煤田一井田水文地质条件分析     

王宝成  邵洪文  韦波 《新疆地质》2006,24(3):267-269

通过对大南湖煤田一井田含水层特征、水力联系、地下水补给、径流与排泄及地下水化学特征等因素的分析,确定该井田水文地质条件类型,为矿床开采提供依据.  相似文献   

Modeling the length of day and extrapolating the rotation of the Earth   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Peter J. Huber 《Journal of Geodesy》2006,80(6):283-303

The stochastic behavior of the length of day (LOD) process is analyzed and is modeled within statistical accuracy on a time-scale ranging from weeks to millennia by a three-component model comprising a global Brownian motion process, decadal fluctuations, and a 50-day Madden–Julian oscillation. While the model is intended to be phenomenological, some possible physical models underlying the three components are speculated upon. The model is applied to estimate long-range extrapolation errors. For example, it predicts a standard error of 1 h in the clock-time correction ΔT for extrapolation by 1,500 years from 500 to 2000 BC.  相似文献   

Ground water contaminant transport by nondivergence-free, unsteady and nonstationary velocity fields     

Hakan Sirin   《Journal of Hydrology》2006,330(3-4):564-572

Pore flow velocity is assumed to be a nondivergence-free, unsteady, and nonstationary random function of space and time for ground water contaminant transport in a heterogeneous medium. The laboratory-scale stochastic contaminant transport equation is up scaled to field scale by taking the ensemble average of the equation by using the cumulant expansion method. A new velocity correction, which is a function of mean pore flow velocity divergence, is obtained due to strict second order cumulant expansion (without omitting any term after the expansion). The field scale transport equations under the divergence-free pore flow velocity field assumption are also derived by simplifying the nondivergence-free field scale equation. The significance of the new velocity correction term is investigated on a two dimensional transport problem driven by a density dependent flow.  相似文献   

A stochastic model of surface contaminant releases to support assessment of site contamination at a former industrial site     

R. Mackay  J.A. Morakinyo 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2006,20(3):213-222

An industrial site is usually contaminated by accidental (and occasionally intentional) releases of pollutants to the environment from various operations carried out on that site. Consequently, the pattern of contamination created during the life of the site depends in part, at least, on the pattern of operations. Thus, the assessment of the pattern of contamination over the site should be improved: if it is possible to identify the pattern of operations on the site, the duration of the different activities and the perceived likelihood of releases from the different operations. A stochastic model has been developed that can be used to simulate alternative realizations of contaminant releases (duration, extent and timing). The model employs release zones associated with particular activities or groups of activities on the site and the areas of each of the zones may be independent or overlapping. The period of activity in each zone is obtained from the site records, while the likelihood and extent of contamination in each zone is inferred from an analysis of the contamination data obtained by point sampling. The form of the model, the method of inference of the model parameter values from the site data and the application of the model to the study site are presented. The release model has been developed as part of a suite of stochastic models for site ground contamination analysis. The stochastic soil and transport models and the application of the integrated modelling system are described in separate papers.  相似文献