新疆塔里木河流域洪水过程集聚性及低频气候影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

顾西辉  张强  刘剑宇  孙鹏 《水科学进展》2016,27(4):501-511

运用Cox回归模型、月频率法以及离散指数法,研究了新疆塔里木河（塔河）流域8个水文站点POT抽样和5个区域洪水序列时间集聚性特征以及受低频气候变化的影响。结果表明:受气候变化的影响,塔河流域洪水序列呈现显著集聚性特征,洪水发生频率高的时期往往也是大量级洪峰集中发生的时期,这是塔河流域洪灾损失居高不下的主要原因;Cox回归模型拟合的气候指标系数值为正值的站点和区域,气候指标正相位导致相同超过概率的洪水发生时间提前,而相同发生时间的洪水发生超过概率降低,气候指标值为负值时则相反;塔河流域大部分水文站点和区域洪水发生的超过概率均对气候指标变化有较好响应,这一现象有利于塔河流域洪水风险控制与洪灾管理;塔河流域站点洪水序列多无年际集聚性现象,而区域洪水序列的年际集聚性特征显著。  相似文献   

Matlab稳健回归法在FD-3019γ测井仪校准中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

何涛 《铀矿地质》2016,(4):242-245

简要介绍了FD-3019γ测井仪的校准方法,即Matlab稳健回归法及其抗差性。通过一个实例对比了Matlab稳健回归法和最小二乘法建立的一元线性回归方程,结果表明Matlab稳健回归法较之最小二乘法更为准确。  相似文献   

基于粒子群优化相关向量机的岩层可钻性预测          下载免费PDF全文

韩丽丽 《探矿工程》2016,43(3):23-26

本文提出了一种基于粒子群优化相关向量机（PSO-RVM）的岩层可钻性预测方法。该方法选取岩层埋深H、声波时差AC、电阻率ρd、岩层密度ρ和泥质含量Vsh等5个参数作为评价岩层可钻性的基本参数。以某油田Du4钻井为例,采用PSO-RVM方法、多元回归方法和RVM方法对岩层可钻性进行评价。计算结果表明,PSO-RVM模型的预测结果与实测数据非常接近,其预测精度明显高于多元回归方法和RVM方法,说明本文提出的方法具有一定的优越性和较高的精度,可以较好地应用于钻井工程中岩层可钻性预测。  相似文献   

A Combined Weight of Evidence and Logistic Regression Method for Susceptibility Mapping of Earthquake-induced Landslides: A Case Study of the April 20, 2013 Lushan Earthquake,China     

ZHOU Suhu  WANG Wei  CHEN Guangqi  LIU Baochen  FANG Ligang 《《地质学报》英文版》2016,90(2):511-524

The Ms 7.0 Lushan earthquake triggered a huge number of landslides. Landslide susceptibility mapping is of great importance. Weight of Evidence (WoE) and Logistic Regression (LR) methods have been widely used for LSM (Landslide Susceptibility Mapping). However, limitations still exist. WoE is capable of assessing the influence of different classes of each factor, but neglects the correlation between factors. LR is able to analyze the relationship among the factors while it is not capable of evaluating the influence of different classes. This paper proposes a combined method of LR and WoE for LSM, taking advantage of their individual merits and overcoming their limitations. An inventory of 1289 landslides was used: 70% were random-selected for training and the remaining for validation. 11 landslide condition factors were employed in the model and the result was validated using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. The results showed that the LR-WoE model had a better accuracy than the LR model, producing an area below the curve with values of 0.802 success and 0.791 predictive, higher than that of the LR model (0.715 success and 0.722 predictive). It is therefore concluded that the combined method of WoE and LR can provide a promising level of accuracy for earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility mapping.  相似文献   

Comparison of Constant and Time-variant Optimal Forcing Approaches in El Nio Simulations by Using the Zebiak–Cane Model     

Ben Tian  Wansuo Duan 《大气科学进展》2016,33(6):685-694

Model errors offset by constant and time-variant optimal forcing vector approaches(termed COF and OFV, respectively)are analyzed within the framework of El Nio simulations. Applying the COF and OFV approaches to the well-known Zebiak–Cane model, we re-simulate the 1997 and 2004 El Nio events, both of which were poorly degraded by a certain amount of model error when the initial anomalies were generated by coupling the observed wind forcing to an ocean component. It is found that the Zebiak–Cane model with the COF approach roughly reproduced the 1997 El Nio, but the 2004 El Nio simulated by this approach defied an ENSO classification, i.e., it was hardly distinguishable as CP-El Nio or EP-El Nio. In both El Nio simulations, substituting the COF with the OFV improved the fit between the simulations and observations because the OFV better manages the time-variant errors in the model. Furthermore, the OFV approach effectively corrected the modeled El Nio events even when the observational data(and hence the computational time) were reduced.Such a cost-effective offset of model errors suggests a role for the OFV approach in complicated CGCMs.  相似文献   

基于大气电场资料的雷电临近预警研究     

秦微  张其林  姜苏  陈媛  苏建峰 《南京气象学院学报》2016,8(3):247-251

通过分析深圳地区2012年6—9月17次雷暴过程的电场观测资料,并结合广东省闪电定位资料,发现当雷暴云移近电场仪测站时,在测站的防护区内(距测站10 km半径范围内),闪电发生前的电场幅值快速增加且伴随有快变抖动的现象,并且快变抖动和闪电的发生具有0-1化对应关系,即当有电场的快变抖动出现的情况下,电场达到一定阈值并维持一段时间后,防护区内发生闪电的可能性很大.因此根据大气电场的波形特征,提取出与闪电相关性较高的因子,利用多元回归技术建立一套预报方程,根据该预报方程得出最佳预警参数.结果表明:当大气电场阈值达到0.86 kV/m,且在10.73 min内电场能维持在阈值上,并伴随有电场的抖动时,在防护区内发生闪电的可能性很大,预警准确率达53%.  相似文献   

Mapping local regression for spatial object-pairs     

Jie Lin  Robert G. Cromley  Dean M. Hanink 《制图学和地理信息科学》2016,43(4):328-337

Local regression methods such as geographically weighted regression (GWR) can provide specific information about individual locations (or places) in spatial analysis that is useful for mapping nonstationary covariate relationships. However, the distance-based weighting schemes used in GWR are only adaptable for spatial objects that are point or area features. In particular, spatial object-pairs pose a challenge for local analysis because they have a linear dimensionality rather than a point dimensionality. This paper proposes using an alternative local regression model – quantile regression (QR) – for investigating the stationarity of regression parameters with respect to these linear features as well as facilitating the visualization of the results. An empirical example of a gravity model analysis of trade patterns within Europe is used to illustrate the utility of the proposed method.  相似文献   

机器学习法在面向对象影像分类中的对比分析     

赵丹平  顾海燕  贾莹 《测绘科学》2016,41(10):181-186

针对如何选择遥感影像面向地理对象分类方法的问题,该文面向地理国情普查中的地表覆盖分类应用,以3个典型区域(山区、平原、城区)的多源高分辨率遥感影像为实验数据,从分类效果、分类精度等方面对比分析3种分类方法(支持向量机、决策树、随机森林)的优劣。在相同影像分割、特征提取、样本采集条件下,通过333组分类实验,得出以下规律:支持向量机分类方法稳定性强,分类速度快,但对特征数的要求高,特征数目与总体精度、地物环境之间的规律性不强,从而增加了特征提取与选择的难度,而随着特征的增加,决策树、随机森林的总体分类精度均为先升高后降低,最后趋于平衡。最后,综合随机森林对特征的优选机制和支持向量机的高分类精度,得到新的组合分类器。  相似文献   

Spatial variability of soil erodibility and its correlation with soil properties in semi-arid mountainous watershed,Saudi Arabia   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Javed Mallick  Hussein Al-Wadi  Atiqur Rahman  Mohd Ahmed  Roohul Abad Khan 《国际地球制图》2016,31(6):661-681

Soil erodibility values are best estimated from long-term direct measurements on runoff-plots; however, in lack of field tests, these values can be estimated using relationships based on physico-chemical soil properties. The study objective was to assess the erodibility and its correlation with soil properties. The average erodibility value was estimated 0.043 t ha h ha^?1 MJ^?1 mm^?1. The areas with heavy textured soil and low organic matter content had the lowest values of erodibility. The erodibility decreases as the sand content increases, whereas silt showed a positive correlation. The erodibility factors and its relation to soil properties were evaluated using multiple regression analysis. Results revealed that sand and organic matter content of soil combinedly explained 78% of variation. Altitudinal increases also seem to affect the soil texture. This study has demonstrated that soil properties and erodibility values can be used as assistance for soil conservation practices and modelling of landscape processes.  相似文献   

汶川地震前后川滇地区主要断裂活动趋势分析     

岳彩亚  党亚民  杨强  李超 《测绘科学》2016,41(12):101-105

针对川滇地区地震活动频繁的现状,该文首先对1998—2008年和2008—2015年该地区两期GNSS连续观测数据进行解算(时间节点为汶川地震);然后结合前人对川滇区域棱形块体的划分方案,基于欧拉矢量计算方法求出各块体的欧拉矢量以及旋转极经度、旋转极纬度、旋转角速度,并通过反欧拉矢量方法反演出鲜水河-小江断裂带和龙门山断裂带的错动趋势变化。结果表明:汶川地震造成两条断裂带在错动方向和错动速率方面均有变化,并且主要集中在川滇区域北部和西部的断裂带上。  相似文献