Investment risk and return under renewable decarbonization of a power market     

José I. Muñoz 《Climate Policy》2013,13(2):87-105

How does financial performance risk affect investments in low-carbon electricity-generating technologies to achieve climate policy targets? A detailed risk simulation of price formation in the Great Britain wholesale power market is used to show that the increasing replacement of fossil facilities with wind, ceteris paribus, may cause a deterioration of the financial risk–return performance metrics for incremental investments. Low-carbon investments appear to be high risk, low return, and as such may require a progressively higher level of support over time than envisaged by the conventional degression trajectories. The increasing riskiness of the wholesale market will to some extent offset the benefits of lower capital costs and operational efficiencies if investors need to satisfy cautious debt coverage ratios alongside positive expected returns. This increased risk is additional to the well-known ‘merit order effect’ of low-carbon investments progressively depressing wholesale prices and hence their expected investment returns.

Policy relevance

Policy support for renewable technologies such as wind is usually based upon levelized costs and is expected to reduce over time as capital costs and operational efficiencies improve. However, levelized costs do not take full account of the risk aversion that investors may have in practice. Expected policy support reductions may be moderated to some extent by the increased financial performance risk that intermittent technologies bring to the power market. The annual risk-return profiles for incremental investments deteriorate for all technologies as wind replaces fossil fuels. This extra risk premium will need to be incorporated into evaluating policy incentives for new investments in a decarbonizing power market.  相似文献   

Forest certification eligibility as a screen for CDM sinks projects     

《Climate Policy》2013,13(4):335-351

Abstract

Parties negotiating the Kyoto Protocol recently agreed that Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) investments can include carbon sequestration projects in developing countries. However, guidelines for achieving the socio-economic and environmental objectives of the CDM, and other concerns with sinks projects, have yet to be elaborated. Independently of the Kyoto process, international efforts have advanced to define and certify sustainably managed forests through processes, such as that of the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC). In this paper, the FSC-US principles and criteria for sustainable forest management are evaluated in light of current concerns for guiding afforestation and reforestation projects in the CDM. It is found that the FSC criteria would help to meet some of the objectives of the Kyoto Protocol, including provisions to reduce the risk of premature carbon loss, and features that could somewhat lessen leakage of emissions outside the project area. Existing FSC monitoring and verification procedures provide some, but insufficient, overlap with expected requirements for measuring carbon stock changes. FSC principles and criteria articulate stringent guidelines for meeting environmental and social goals that reflect years of negotiations between environmental, timber, human rights and labor interests.  相似文献   

河北省南部电网夏季电力负荷特征及与气象因子的关系   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

武辉芹  张金满  曲晓黎 《气象科技》2013,41(5):945-948

利用河北省南部电力公司提供的2007-2009年南电网区域逐日最大用电负荷资料,分析了南电网区域夏季日最大负荷变化规律,与其他月份相比,夏季5-8月的日最大电力负荷的波动性明显大于其他月份.采用标准化和相关分析法,逐月分析了气象因子与日最大电力负荷的相关性,并找出了日最大电力负荷的周变化特点,以及节假日对日最大电力负荷的影响.结合农作物生长特点,分析了南部电网日最大电力负荷变化特征,为以后日最大电力负荷预报提供了一定的参考.  相似文献   

CINRAD/SA雷达灯丝电源调试与故障判定     

舒毅  舒童  杨苏勤  李欣  张福贵 《气象科技》2013,41(4):620-625

详细叙述了CINRAD/SA雷达灯丝电源控制电路的工作状态,分析了控制电路中脉宽调制器SG1525A的特性,调试了控制斩波器的脉宽调制电路和振荡器控制电路的关键测试波形,并对灯丝电源输出电压、灯丝电压保护和灯丝电流保护进行了分步调试.根据实际经验总结了在灯丝电源调试过程中出现的故障判定流程和故障排查、排除方法,旨在为雷达灯丝电源的故障处理提供参考和借鉴.  相似文献   

基于中尺度模式与神经网络的风电功率预测     

于凤鸣  李喜仓  宋进华  高春香  卓义 《气象科技》2013,41(4):784-789

将中尺度数值天气预报模式与BP神经网络模型相结合用于风电功率预测,以WRF模式回算了2008年6月至2009年6月试验风电场的气象要素,精度检验结果显示风速预报值与对应实测值之间的相关系数达到0.72,风向、气温、湿度、气压的预报也比较准确,满足建立BP神经网络预报模型的需要.逐一建立试验风电场40台风电机组输出功率的BP神经网络预报模型,分析了数据标准化方法、隐含层神经元数对预报精度的影响.进行了26天实效为24 h的逐10 min预报试验,并以独立样本进行预报精度检验,结果显示单台风电机组输出功率相对均方根误差在24.8％～32.6％之间,预报值与实测值之间的相关系数现在0.45～0.68之间;风电场整体相对均方根误差为19.5％,预报值与实测值之间的相关系数为0.74.研究结果表明该方法可以用于实际的风电功率预测.  相似文献   

Factors Influencing Fish Composition in an Australian Intermittently Open Estuary. Is Stability Salinity-Dependent?     

S. P. Griffiths 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2001,52(6):739

The ichthyofauna of the intermittently open Shellharbour Lagoon in southeastern Australia was sampled over 14 months to investigate factors influencing species composition. Zostera capricorni and bare sand habitats were sampled every two months with a fine-mesh seine. Of the 10 277 fish caught representing 19 families and 27 species, the most numerically dominant species were Pseudogobius olorum and Pseudomugil signifer. The most abundant economically important species were Acanthopagrus australis, Mugil cephalus and Myxus elongatus. Mean number of fish and species was significantly higher over Zostera than bare sand during months immediately after the estuary opened when juvenile marine fishes recruited, demonstrating the estuary's nursery function. In contrast to other intermittently open estuaries in Australia and South Africa, Shellharbour Lagoon's fish assemblage appears resilient to perturbation and does not undergo distinct seasonal variations. This may be a result of the estuary's short open phases providing less opportunity for marine fishes to enter. Perhaps more importantly, the less dramatic fluctuations in salinity between open and closed phases maintains salinity at a level intermediate of the tolerances of both marine and estuarine fishes.  相似文献   

校院两级管理下的排课软件设计与实现     

肖洪生  陈善雄 《广东海洋大学学报》2005,25(6):65-68

阐述了排课系统的管理层次、操作权限分配、资源管理、网络排课的具体实现过程。本系统较好地解决了多个校区、多个学院之间的分配资源和排课冲突问题。其特点是资源统一管理、分散使用,利用校园网进行教学管理,不受时间、空间的限制。  相似文献   

蓝离散星研究现状(Ⅱ):观测特性     

新宇  邓李才  梁艳春 《天文学进展》2006,24(3):223-243

不同恒星系统(银河系晕、疏散星团、球状星团、矮星系)中蓝离散星所表现出的观测特性各不相同,这与恒星系统动力学环境及相应的蓝离散星主导形成机制直接相关。因此,分析研究蓝离散星的不同观测特性,也就成为研究蓝离散星形成机制、恒星及双星系统演化以及恒星系统动力学演化的有效方法。  相似文献   

Food Security of Shifting Cultivation Systems： Case Studies from Luang Prabang and Oudomxay Provinces, Lao PDR   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Linkham Douangsavanh Anan Polthanee Roengsak Katawatin 《山地科学学报》2006,3(1):48-57

Introduction The shifting cultivation system is one of the most important agricultural systems in Luang Prabang and Oudomxay provinces, where many production systems are found in the uplands. The factors, determining the systems, include ethnicity,Journal…  相似文献   

上海天文台2004年度的科研工作     

廖新浩 《中国科学院上海天文台年刊》2005,(1):1-6

简要回顾了中国科学院上海天文台2004年科研及相关工作情况。  相似文献