ENSO and Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in Association with Canadian Wheat Yield Variability     

Bin Yu  Budong Qian  Yinsuo Zhang  Kevin Anderson 《大气与海洋》2018,56(1):28-39

Interannual variations of spring wheat yields in Canadian agricultural regions are analyzed, together with the associated sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the northern hemisphere tropics and extratropics, from 1961 to 2015. The cubic trend is calculated and used to represent the trend related to advances in agricultural technology over this time period. The correlations between Canadian wheat yields at regional scales and the tropical El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability are not robust at any stage of the evolution of ENSO. Based on the power spectrum and cross-spectrum analysis, the most prominent yield variance is found in the Canadian Prairies, with a significant power peak of 4.5 years but does not co-vary significantly with interannual ENSO variability. ENSO weakly affects temperature and precipitation anomalies in the Canadian Prairie Region in summer—two important agroclimatic conditions for crop growth—and hence insignificantly impacts wheat yields. This indicates that there would be little benefit to including tropical ENSO indices in the operational wheat yield forecasting system. For Canadian wheat yield forecasting, attention should be paid to the preceding winter and spring SST anomalies in the northern extratropics. The SST anomalies associated with yields in the Canadian Prairie region and Central Region are generally stronger than those associated with yields in the Canadian Pacific Coast Region and eastern Maritime Region. In association with the Prairie Region and Central Region yields, SST shows pronounced anomalies in the mid-high latitudes of the North Pacific from winter to summer. The non-linearity of the SST anomalies associated with the Canadian yields is also clearly evident. Stronger (weaker) SST anomalies in the extratropical North Pacific correspond to low wheat yields in the Prairie (Central) Region, while weaker (stronger) SST anomalies correspond to high yields in the Prairie (Central) Region.  相似文献   

RETRACTED ARTICLE: Space and time distributions of major winter storms in the United States     

Stanley A. Changnon 《Natural Hazards》2008,45(1):1-9

Winter storms are a major weather problem in the United States and their losses have been rapidly increasing. A total of 202 catastrophic winter storms involving ice storms, blizzards, and snowstorms, each causing >$5 million in damages, occurred during 1949–2003, and their losses totaled $35.2 billion (2003 dollars). Catastrophic winter storms occurred in most parts of the contiguous United States, but were concentrated in the eastern half of the nation where 88% of all storm losses occurred. They were most frequent in the Northeast climate district (95 storms), and were least frequent in the West district (14 catastrophic storms). The annual average number of storms is 3.7 with a 1-year high of nine storms, and one year had no storms. Temporal distributions of storms and their losses exhibited considerable spatial variability across the nation. For example, when storms were very frequent in the Northeast, they were infrequent elsewhere, a result of spatial differences in storm-producing weather conditions over time. The time distribution of the nation’s 202 storms during 1949–2003 had a sizable downward trend, whereas the nation’s storm losses had a major upward trend for the 55-year period. This increase over time in losses, given the decrease in storm incidences, was a result of significant temporal increases in storm sizes and storm intensities. Increases in storm intensities were small in the northern sections of the nation, but doubled across the southern two-thirds of the nation, reflecting a climatic shift in conditions producing intense winter storms.  相似文献   

Losses from sleet storms in the United States     

Stanley A. Changnon 《Natural Hazards》2008,47(3):465-470

Increasing losses of life and property and damages to the environment due to sleet and related winter storm conditions have increased the need for long-term sleet storm data to better assess the point and regional risks of sleet and their long-term variations. The areas of greatest losses and frequency of catastrophes caused by sleet during 1971–2007 are the Northeast and Central regions of the U.S. These two regions experienced 72% of all the nation’s sleet losses. Most of the western U.S. had no damaging sleet-related events or losses. When sleet losses occurred, they tended to be in 2, 3, or 4 adjacent states. Sleet catastrophes were most common in January with 15 of the 30 events. The earliest storm occurred in October and the latest in March. The temporal distributions of catastrophes and their losses during 1971–2007 were similar. Both showed a secondary peak in 1976–1979, a low in 1988–1991, and then high values during the 1996–2007 period. The temporal distributions of damaging storms and losses indicate an upward trend over time.  相似文献   

喜马拉雅山南坡冬季暴雪对高原南部冰芯中稳定同位素记录的影响   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

田立德  姚檀栋  孙维贞  蒲健辰  王宁练 《气象学报》2001,59(4):509-512

聂拉木气象站降水中 δ18O的变化表明 ,夏季降水中 δ18O为一低值阶段 ;冬季降水中 δ18O总的来说为一高值阶段 ,但冬季暴风雪中δ18O的值和夏季强的季风活动中降水的δ18O一样很低。由于该地区冬季降水十分活跃 ,冬季降水中 δ18O的变化对该地区冰芯记录将产生重要的影响。首先是用δ18O的季节变化来对冰芯定年产生一定的困难 ,其次喜马拉雅山中段冰芯中的δ18O记录不仅包括了夏季季风活动的强弱信息 ,而且冬季强的暴风雪过程也记录在内。  相似文献   

冬小麦生长发育的模拟模式   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

张宇  陶炳炎  汤志成 《南京气象学院学报》1991,(1)

根据冬小麦生长发育及其与环境条件关系的机理研究,建立了模拟冬小麦发育阶段和各器官生物量变化的动态模式。其中包括3个环境要素子模式,分别计算温度、辐射和水分,5个生物学过程子模式,分别模拟冬小麦的发育、光合、呼吸、同化物分配和叶面积系数。用镇江和海安共8个播期的实测资料对模式进行验证,并对模式进行了初步数值试验应用。  相似文献   

东亚冬季风活动与厄·尼诺的关系   总被引：11，自引：1，他引：11  

郭其蕴  王日昇 《地理学报》1990,(1)

本文利用1951—1986年全球月平均海平面气压资料以及赤道东太平洋的海温资料,研究了东亚冬季风的年际变化与厄·尼诺的关系,主要结果有:(1)东亚冬季风盛行期(10—3)赤道东太平洋海温与海平面气压场的密切相关区,主要位于亚洲南部和西太平洋(正相关)、澳洲北部(正相关)以及阿留申群岛地区(负相关)。(2)海温的变化一般超前冬季风的变化1—2个季节,以11月的海温与之相关最密切。(3)厄·尼诺年冬季,东亚大陆冷空气南下路径偏东,我国南方多雨。反厄·尼诺年相反,冷空气南下路径偏西,我国南方少雨。  相似文献   

冲绳海槽中部17 000 a以来沉积物中微量元素的组成特征及其对古环境的指示     

彭娜娜  曾志刚 《海洋科学》2016,40(4):126-139

基于加速器质谱仪AMS14C高精度定年,以及应用电感耦合等离子体质谱仪(ICP-MS)对S10孔岩芯沉积物进行微量元素测试,对冲绳海槽中部沉积物的微量元素组成及其记录的物源和古环境信息展开研究。研究结果显示,稀土元素、Th、Nb和Ta元素反映陆源碎屑混合矿物的化学组成特征,Zr和Hf元素指示锆石矿物的化学组成,锆石主要为火山来源,Sc元素可能与铁镁物质有关。稀土元素分析表明沉积物主要由陆源和火山源物质组成,陆源物质主要来自长江和黄河,不同时期,各源区物质贡献量不同:16 500~11 600 a,长江、黄河为沉积物的主要物质来源;11 600~7 750 a,长江物质贡献减少,黄河物质为主;7 750~6 450 a,K-Ah火山物质为主,长江、黄河物质供给骤减;6 450~3 900 a,长江、黄河陆源物质输入增加,4 000 a左右受火山作用影响;3 900~1 900 a,长江、黄河陆源物质输入持续增多;1 900 a以来长江、黄河物质仍有增加,且以黄河物质为主。此外,物源判别公式研究显示台湾物质输入量不能有效反映黑潮演变,而长江、黄河物质输入量对17 000 a以来东亚冬季风的强弱变化有很好的指示,可作为东亚冬季风演变的新证据。这些研究结果表明,冲绳海槽中部微量元素研究可得到海槽17 000 a以来物源及东亚冬季风的演化情况,有助于重建全新世以来沉积物物源及古环境的演变历史。  相似文献   

Coccolith assemblages and their response to climate and surface hydrography in the Yellow Sea,Northwest Pacific,AD 1780–2011     

苑明莉  黄建生  孙军  孙耀 《海洋学报(英文版)》2016,35(10):56-62

A study of coccolith assemblages from a box core from the central South Yellow Sea(SYS) was performed revealing fluctuations on their relative abundance(%) that can be related to climatic and hydrographic changes over the last 230 years(1780–2011). Total coccolith abundances ranged from 7.0 to 55.1×10~6 coccoliths·g~(-1)sediment. Although the abundance of different species varied widely throughout the core, seven taxa dominated the assemblage. Among these species, Gephyrocapsa oceanica was the most dominant species, and it showed an average percentage of 50.1%. The pattern of G. oceanica(eutrophic species) was opposite to that of the combined percentage of Braarudosphaera bigelowii and Umbilicosphaera sibogae(both oligotrophic species), indicating that in the Yellow Sea(YS), the distribution pattern of G. oceanica might be characteristic of nutrient availability.Similar patterns between G. oceanica and the Siberian High were observed on an inter-decadal time scale,indicating that the East Asian Winter Monsoon(EAWM) may be an important driver of ecological changes in the YS. When the EAWM prevails, both the Yellow Sea Coastal Current(YSCC) and Yellow Sea Warm Current(YSWC)strengthen, and the increasing nutrient availability and warmer water brought by the strengthened YSWC favor eutrophic and warm-water coccolithophore species, such as G. oceanica. This likely mechanism demonstrates that coccolith assemblages can be used as benign and reliable proxy for climate change and surface oceanography.  相似文献   

基于特定因子的河南省干热风客观预报方法     

孟祥翼 《气象科技》2017,45(6):1049-1057

利用2000—2014年5月1日到6月10日河南省121个气象观测站点的逐日观测数据、欧洲中心模式预报资料,对河南省干热风天气进行分析,总结了干热风天气形势分类模型,同时利用多元回归法建立了河南省干热风天气的客观预报方法。分析结果得出:河南省干热风天气发生主要形势为西北气流型、高压脊型和纬向环流型3类;通过多元回归分析筛选出日最高温度预报因子为前一日最高气温、当日最低气温、08:00气温、EC850hPa 24h温度预报,相对湿度预报因子为EC850hPa 24h相对湿度预报、前一日14:00相对湿度、当日08:00露点温度,风速预报因子为EC细网格过去3h10m阵风预报,建立温度、湿度和风速3要素的预报方程;利用预报方程对2014年预报时段的天气进行检验,结果表明,对于轻干热风预报的TS评分为62%,重干热风预报的TS评分为64%。  相似文献   

中国南方冬季持续性温湿异常事件的分类和特征分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

田青  温敏  张人禾  高辉 《气象学报》2017,75(5):729-743

利用1981-2010年中国测站逐日气温和降水异常序列,将中国南方冬季持续性异常事件分为冷湿、冷干、暖湿和暖干4类持续性异常事件,并用NCEP-DOE逐日再分析资料对各类持续性异常事件的环流特征进行了分析。结果表明,欧亚大陆中高纬度上空"北高南低"的异常环流形势使得温带急流减弱、副热带急流增强,有利于冷空气向南爆发;而中纬度地区"东高西低"的异常环流则对应西太平洋副热带高压增强北移和南支西风槽的活跃,有利于偏南风水汽输送达到中国南方地区,中国南方降水偏多。受南北异常环流的共同影响,中国南方冬季经常出现持续性异常天气,冷湿（低温雨雪冰冻）事件正是在上述两种异常环流型影响下发生的。因此,考虑与冷湿事件相联系的关键环流系统可能有助于提高中国南方冬季低温雨雪冰冻事件的预报能力。   相似文献