A six-step practical approach to semivariogram modeling   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：3  

Ricardo A. Olea 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2006,20(5):307-318

Geostatistical prediction and simulation are being increasingly used in the earth sciences and engineering to address the imperfect knowledge of attributes that fluctuate over large areas or volumes—pollutant concentration, electromagnetic fields, porosity, thickness of a geological formation. Central to the application of such techniques is the need to know the spatial continuity, knowledge that is commonly condensed in the form of covariance or semivariogram models. Their preparation is subdivided here into the following steps: (1) Data editing, (2) Exploratory data analysis, (3) Semivariogram estimation, (4) Directional investigation, (5) Simple modeling, (6) Nested modeling. I illustrate these stages practically with a real data set from a geophysical survey from Elk County, Kansas, USA. The applicability of the approach is not limited by the physical nature of the attribute of interest.  相似文献   

Towards medium-term (order of months) morphodynamic modelling of the Teign estuary, UK     

Marcos E. C. Bernardes  Mark A. Davidson  Keith R. Dyer  Ken J. George 《Ocean Dynamics》2006,56(3-4):186-197

The main objective of this paper is to address the principal mechanisms involved in the medium-term (order of months to years) morphodynamic evolution of estuaries through the application of a process-based numerical modelling. The Teign estuary (Teignmouth, UK) is the selected site. The system is forced by the macrotidal semi-diurnal tide in the English Channel and is perturbed to a minor extent by high river discharge events (freshets). Although waves have a definite influence on the adjacent coastal area, Wells (Teignmouth Quay Development Environmental Statement: Changes to Physical Processes. Report R.984c:140. ABP Marine Environmental Research Ltd., Southampton, 2002b) suggested that swell waves do not enter the estuary. Hence, wave effects are neglected in this study, as only tides and the river discharge are taken into account. The sediment grain size is highly variable, but mainly sandy. Within the frame of the COAST3D project (), four bathymetric surveys of the adjacent coastal area were carried out at a nearly weekly intervals. The outer estuary and the adjacent coastal area were also surveyed every 6 months as part of the COASTVIEW project (). Based on these data and on continuously measured parameters, such as water level, waves, wind and river discharge, numerical modelling of the morphodynamic processes can be tested. To replicate the morphological changes in the medium-term within a feasible simulation time, forcing conditions are reduced through the use of an input reduction method (called ensemble technique). In this study, simulations are based on the coupling between Telemac-2D and its non-cohesive sediment transport module, Sisyphe (version 5.3 for both modules). Three different sediment transport formulae were tested: (1) Engelund and Hansen (A monograph on sediment transport in alluvial streams, 3rd edn. Technological University of Denmark, Copenhagen, 1967) including the modifications proposed by Chollet and Cunge (J Hydraul Eng 17(1):1–13, 1979); (2) Bijker (Mechanics of sediment transport by the combination of waves and current. In: Design and reliability of coastal structures. 23rd international conference on Coastal Engineering, pp 147–173, 1968) and (3) Soulsby (Dynamics of Marine Sands. A manual for practical applications. HR Wallingford, Wallingford, p 142, 1997) modified version of van Rijn [J Hydraul Eng 110(10):1431–1456, 1984a, J Hydraul Eng 110(11):1613–1641, 1984b] formulation. Both a qualitative (i.e. visual comparison) and a quantitative tool [Brier Skill Score (BSS); described in Sutherland et al. in Coast Eng 51:917–939, 2004b] are applied to assess the similarity of simulations when compared to model predictions and observations. Tests confirmed the reliability and time efficiency of the ensemble technique, since it reproduced very well the results of a reference run, a computation based on the observed boundary conditions. For the spring-neap cycle modelled, the BSS was of 0.91 (a perfect modelling would have a BSS of 1), with a reduction in the simulation time on the order of 80%. For the 6-month-period simulation, results were also excellent: BSS=0.92 and a computer time reduction of 85%. In principle, this method has the advantage of being applied to any process-based numerical model.  相似文献   

洛阳分县温度周滚动预报系统   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

姬鸿丽禹东晖  盛建萍陈红霞  聂玉梅马俊 马淑玲 《河南气象》2006,(3):40-42

利用洛阳9县(市)2002年11月~2004年9月逐日最高、最低气温资料,应用欧洲中心数值预报产品,建立了洛阳9个县(市)的温度周滚动预报方程。2004~2005年试报结果表明:24~48 h预报准确率在70%左右,绝对误差在2℃以内;24~144 h预报准确率在62%~70%之间,绝对误差在2℃左右;最低气温预报效果要好于最高气温,最低气温的绝对误差与准确率分别为1.98℃和67%,最高气温的绝对误差与准确率分别为2.28℃和61%。  相似文献   

Evaluation of the Urban Tile in MOSES using Surface Energy Balance Observations     

M. J. Best  C. S. B. Grimmond  Maria Gabriella Villani 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2006,118(3):503-525

The UK Met Office has introduced a new scheme for its urban tile in MOSES 2.2 (Met Office Surface Exchange Scheme version 2.2), which is currently implemented within the operational Met Office weather forecasting model. Here, the performance of the urban tile is evaluated in two urban areas: the historic core of downtown Mexico City and a light industrial site in Vancouver, Canada. The sites differ in terms of building structures and mean building heights. In both cases vegetation cover is less than 5%. The evaluation is based on surface energy balance flux measurements conducted at approximately the blending height, which is the location where the surface scheme passes flux data into the atmospheric model. At both sites, MOSES 2.2 correctly simulates the net radiation, but there are discrepancies in the partitioning of turbulent and storage heat fluxes between predicted and observed values. Of the turbulent fluxes, latent heat fluxes were underpredicted by about one order of magnitude. Multiple model runs revealed MOSES 2.2 to be sensitive to changes in the canopy heat storage and in the ratio between the aerodynamic roughness length and that for heat transfer (temperature). Model performance was optimum with heat capacity values smaller than those generally considered for these sites. The results suggest that the current scheme is probably too simple, and that improvements may be obtained by increasing the complexity of the model.  相似文献   

Role of land-surface temperature feedback on model performance for the stable boundary layer     

A. A. M. Holtslag  G. J. Steeneveld  B. J. H. van de Wiel 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2007,125(2):361-376

At present a variety of boundary-layer schemes is in use in numerical models and often a large variation of model results is found. This is clear from model intercomparisons, such as organized within the GEWEX Atmospheric Boundary Layer Study (GABLS). In this paper we analyze how the specification of the land-surface temperature affects the results of a boundary-layer scheme, in particular for stable conditions. As such we use a well established column model of the boundary layer and we vary relevant parameters in the turbulence scheme for stable conditions. By doing so, we can reproduce the outcome for a variety of boundary-layer models. This is illustrated with the original set-up of the second GABLS intercomparison study using prescribed geostrophic winds and land-surface temperatures as inspired by (but not identical to) observations of CASES-99 for a period of more than two diurnal cycles. The model runs are repeated using a surface temperature that is calculated with a simple land-surface scheme. In the latter case, it is found that the range of model results in stable conditions is reduced for the sensible heat fluxes, and the profiles of potential temperature and wind speed. However, in the latter case the modelled surface temperatures are rather different than with the original set-up, which also impacts on near-surface air temperature and wind speed. As such it appears that the model results in stable conditions are strongly influenced by non-linear feedbacks in which the magnitude of the geostrophic wind speed and the related land-surface temperature play an important role.  相似文献   

数据同化在海洋生态模型中的应用和研究进展   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王辉  刘桂梅  万莉颖 《地球科学进展》2007,22(10):989-996

将数据同化方法引入海洋生态系统动力学模型研究，利用现有的观测数据，获得最佳的模式参数、初始场或提高状态模拟，是当前多学科交叉研究的热门领域。本文依据国内外研究进展，主要就海洋生态模型研究中所采用的变分伴随、卡尔曼滤波、模拟退火法方法进行了介绍，总结了数据同化在我国的海洋生态系统研究中的现状和发展趋势。  相似文献   

云南弥渡宝兴厂金矿床成矿模式     

王绍明  和正中 《云南地质》2007,26(3):289-297

宝兴厂矿区地质构造复杂,成矿条件有利。区内北东向响水断裂带是主要的控岩和控矿构造。三类金矿床分别在斑岩成矿期、热液成矿期和表生成矿期成生。文中建立相应的成矿模式。  相似文献   

新疆东天山剪切带型金矿床时代研究   总被引：23，自引：5，他引：23  

陈文 张彦秦克章  王清利王义天 刘新宇 《岩石学报》2007,23(8):2007-2016

东天山造山带中部的秋格明塔什-黄山巨型韧性剪切带内三个典型的剪切带型金矿床——康古尔金矿床、红石金矿床和红山金矿床的同位素年代学研究表明,金矿床成矿作用和剪切带后期的走滑剪切变形作用在时间上具有强烈的耦合关系。秋格明塔什-黄山韧性剪切带剪切变形作用主活动期的时代为262.9～242.8Ma,而剪切带型金矿床金成矿作用发生在261.0～246.5Ma 之间,恰好落在剪切变形作用主活动期的时代范围之内。这种强烈的耦合关系证明了秋格明塔什-黄山韧性剪切带晚期的右行走滑剪切变形作用才是剪切带内一系列金矿床成矿作用的主因。金成矿和右行走滑剪切变形之间的时间耦合关系在不同部位还有不同的表现。在剪切带中-西段的康古尔地区,快速抬升发生在261.5～262.9Ma,而康古尔金矿床主成矿期时代范围是261.0～252.5Ma,可以看出,康古尔金矿床成矿作用刚好发生于剪切带中-西段快速抬升之后。在剪切带东段,快速抬升发生在247.1～246.9Ma 期间,位于该剪切带东段北外带的红山金矿床主成矿期的年龄范围是246.9～246.5Ma,表明该金矿也是在剪切带东段快速抬升冷却之后形成的。金矿石 Ar-Ar 同位素年代学研究未能得到可靠的和早期韧性推覆剪切变形事件相对应的年龄,推测在晚石炭世—早二叠世发生的韧性推覆剪切变形事件可能仅导致了包括金在内的金属元素的初步富集,但由于高温不利于金属元素沉淀和挤压环境不易存在容矿空间等不利因素的影响,导致此阶段并没有形成有工业开采价值的金矿床。只是到了华力西晚期—印支早期,在原韧性推覆剪切带内发生了走滑剪切变形活动,并产生了快速抬升冷却降温到350℃后,在地体缓慢冷却阶段,在脆-韧性剪切带内才有足够的空间和时间形成金矿床。  相似文献   

地磁匹配特征量的选择   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

乔玉坤  王仕成  张琪 《地震地磁观测与研究》2007,28(1):42-47

论文旨在选择合适的地磁特征量用于匹配制导.从地磁匹配的实际要求出发,提出了选择匹配特征量时应重点考虑的几个因素,通过理论分析初步拟定了选取准则,并针对特定区域,依据IGRF(International Geomagnetic Reference Field)和WMM(World Magnetic Model)计算出的地磁数据,结合选取准则进行了综合分析,给出了初选结果,对地磁匹配基准图的制备、实时图的获取、匹配算法的研究,以及地磁场资源应用于其他领域的相关研究有一定的借鉴意义.  相似文献   

大厂铜坑银锌矿体三维数学模型的建立和应用     

张玲燕  燕永锋  秦德先  余阳先  陈文生 《云南地质》2007,26(1):99-105

运用国际矿业软件Surpac建立矿体原始资料数据库、三维实体模型以及品位块体模型。采用距离幂次反比法进行金属元素品位估值,用其结果分别按高程对各金属元素进行储量计算,完成品位块体模型的建模过程,从而实现矿床三维立体可视化以及原始数据资料的动态查询,对矿山生产管理具有较大现实意义。  相似文献