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21.
Simple homogeneous formulations of two extreme value partial duration flood models are compared to more sophisticated compound formulations in terms of asymptotic performance of quantile estimates. The compound model formulations were developed to model flood series resulting from mixed climatological processes. It was found that only in the case of marked nonhomogeneity in the data samples did the compound formulation of the models offer significant advantages in terms of variance of quantile estimates. However, the estimates from the homogeneous model were significantly biased in the negative direction. This negative bias of quantile estimates from the simple model was even more pronounced when the more sophisticated Weibull model was used as the base. 相似文献
22.
根据云南省内若干山区气象资料,研究云南山区日照时效的垂直分布规律,得出一些有意义的结论:日照时数垂直分布有抛物线型、线性型、缓变型等;日照时数年内变化有冬大夏小型、春大夏小型、夏大冬小型3种;山区日照时数坡向差异明显,各山区不尽相同。 相似文献
23.
A methodology based on the theory of stochastic processes is applied to the analysis of floods. The approach will be based on some results of the theory of extreme values over a threshold. In this paper, we focus on the estimation of the distribution of the flood volume in partial duration series analysis of flood phenomena, by using a bivariate exponential distribution of discharge exceedances and durations over a base level. 相似文献
24.
Conventional design practice aims at obtaining optimal estimates of floods with specified exceedance probabilities. Such estimates are, however, known on the average to be exceeded more frequently than expected. Alternatively, methods focusing on the expected exceedance probability can be used. Two different methods are considered here; the first is based on the sample distribution of true exceedance probabilities. The second is a Bayesian analogue using the likelihood function and a noninformative prior to describe the variability of exceedance probabilities. Appropriate analytical solutions are presented in both cases using the partial duration series approach. 相似文献
25.
本文总结分析了发生在新丰江水库老震区,距1962年6.1级主震27年的1次4.5级地震的活动和特点,认为此次4.5级地震及其伴生的小震群仍系新丰江水库诱发地震序列的中晚期强余震。 相似文献
26.
本文采用大森公式n(t)=K/(t+c)^p求解K、c、p三个参数,对云南1965年以来71个地震序列进行研究。确定P=0.8为前兆震群和正常震群的判定指标。利用K、c、p三参数计算序列理论曲线得到晚期强余震前差残曲线超出两倍均方差的结果。 相似文献
27.
本文应用动态系统时间连续模型建立的新方法(DM(n,h)模型),通过对唐山老震区ML>4.7级地震的建模,讨论DM(n,h)模型对唐山老震区晚期强余震预测的可行性。并比较了DM(n,h)模型与GM(n,h)模型,发现DM(n,h)模型优于GM(n,h)模型,同时,给出了唐山老震区晚期强余震的预报结果。 相似文献
28.
Yoshinobu Tsuji Fumihiko Imamura Hideo Matsutomi Costas E. Synolakis Puspito T. Nanang Jumadi Satoshi Harada Se Sub Han Ken'ichi Arai Benjamin Cook 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1995,144(3-4):839-854
A field survey of the June 3, 1994 East Java earthquake tsunami was conducted within three weeks, and the distributions of the seismic intensities, tsunami heights, and human and house damages were surveyed. The seismic intensities on the south coasts of Java and Bali Islands were small for an earthquake with magnitudeM 7.6. The earthquake caused no land damage. About 40 minutes after the main shock, a huge tsunami attacked the coasts, several villages in East Java Province were damaged severely, and 223 persons perished. At Pancer Village about 70 percent of the houses were swept away and 121 persons were killed by the tsunami. The relationship between tsunami heights and distances from the source shows that the Hatori's tsunami magnitude wasm=3, which seems to be larger for the earthquake magnitude. But we should not consider this an extraordinary event because it was pointed out byHatori (1994) that the magnitudes of tsunamis in the Indonesia-Philippine region generally exceed 1–2 grade larger than those of other regions. 相似文献
29.
Herak Marijan Herak Davorka Markušić Snježana Ivančić Ines 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2001,45(3):251-266
The rate of aftershock occurrence after the M6 Ston-Slano (Croatia) earthquake is modeled as the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS). Increase of the modeled cumulative number of aftershocks with time was fitted to observations by the least-squares criterion using the combined grid-search and Monte-Carlo approach. This enabled not only the estimation of the most probable ETAS parameters, but also the determination of their confidence limits, as well as the estimation of the bias between them. It has been found that the bias is significant for some of the parameter pairs, regardless of the threshold magnitude assumed. Residual analyses revealed that all strong aftershocks (M
L
4.5) occurred during the periods of normal to high aftershock activity. There were two periods of quiescence in the sequence, both of which were followed by a strong aftershock. 相似文献
30.
地震序列较强余震灰色及最小二乘拟合预测方法的应用研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
在收集、整理1966年~2002年8月我国(主要为大陆地区)183个5级以上地震序列资料的基础上,应用灰色预测和最小二乘拟合预测方法,对每一地震序列较强(显著)余震发震时间进行“硬性”检验预测。结果表明,2种预测方法对7级以上地震序列和6级地震序列的较强(显著)余震具有较好的预测效能,预测效能分别为76.2%和64.7%;而对5级地震序列预测效果则不甚明显。因此,灰色预测和最小二乘拟合预测方法主要着眼于对大(强)地震的较强(显著)余震预测,可望在地震现场大(强)震应急工作中发挥积极作用。 相似文献