超前地质预报系统的提出及其发展方向     

罗利锐  刘志刚  闫怡冲 《岩土力学》2011,32(Z1):614-0618

总结了超前地质预报的作用和发展现状,分析了超前地质预报认识上的误区和各种探测设备存在的问题。提出了超前地质预报系统的概念,阐述了隧道所在地区地质分析技术、隧道不良地质体超前预报技术、重大施工地质灾害临近警报技术包含的内容。系统的工作步骤为,利用地质分析技术结论以及地质复杂程度分级标准对探测区段的围岩进行地质复杂程度分级,针对不同级别的地质复杂程度,制定与其对应的超前地质预报系统方案,并注意现场工作中动态控制的应用。以厦门海底隧道F3风化深槽为例,对超前地质预报系统的内容及工作步骤进行了应用。提出了超前地质预报系统的发展方向。研究旨在完善超前地质预报工作,使超前地质预报结果在现场施工过程中能真正起到指导性的作用,最大程度地减少地质灾害造成的人员伤亡和财产损失  相似文献   

城市避震疏散能力评价方法研究     

管友海  高惠瑛  王耀 《世界地震工程》2010,26(4)

综合考虑人口、建筑、绿地、道路、疏散场所和重大危险源等各类影响因素,提出了街区疏散能力综合评价指数CEIEC,用层次分析法(AHP)通过各因素权重,对街区避震疏散能力进行了量化表达,能够给出各研究单元的避震疏散能力的相对水平,从而对城市社区避震疏散能力进行综合评价。本方法有利于揭示城市内避震疏散的薄弱环节,对城市规划等部门的工作,尤其对城市防灾规划的编制具有明显的指导性意义。  相似文献   

DEVELOPMENT OF EARTHQUAKE EMERGENCY DISASTER INFORMATION PRE-EVALUATION DATA BASED ON KM GRID          下载免费PDF全文

XU Jing-hai  AN Ji-wen  NIE Gao-zhong 《地震地质》2016,38(3):760-772

After an earthquake, earthquake emergency response and rescue is one of the effective ways to reduce casualties from the earthquake. Earthquake emergency disaster information is one of crucial factors to effectively guide the rescue work. However, there is a "black box effect" on the emergency disaster information acquisition after an earthquake, which means real-time earthquake disaster information is insufficient. Hazard estimates are usually used as a substitute for the real-time disaster information in the "black box" period. However, it is subject to the accuracy and speed of the estimation. The development of the km grid technology provides good prospect to solve this problem. The paper suggests to develop earthquake disaster information pre-estimation data with the support of the km grid technology. The definition and source of the pre-estimation data are introduced and its possibility in improving the estimation speed and accuracy are analyzed theoretically. Then, we elaborate the calculation model of the pre-estimation data. The framework of the model includes disaster-bearing body data, disaster-causing factors used in calculation and calculation formula. The disaster-bearing body data in km grid format are introduced, including population data in km grid format and building data in km grid format. Then the four elements of the earthquake(earthquake occurrence time, earthquake location, earthquake magnitude and focal depth)are selected as disaster-causing factors for calculation. Map algebra method is used to realize the calculation model in which calculation parameters are associated with base map in the km grid format. So the pre-estimation data are developed by python and ArcGIS, which includes building damage dataset(100 layers), death toll dataset(10 layers)and direct economic loss dataset(5 layers). Finally, the pre-estimation data based method for earthquake emergency disaster information estimation is presented. With the support of this method, two real earthquake cases are used to validate the effect of the pre-estimation data. The validation results show the pre-estimation data can not only significantly improve the speed of the estimation but also greatly improve the accuracy of the estimation. Another good result is found in the validation process that with the support of the pre-estimation data, the estimated result can display the spatial distribution of the disaster information, which will effectively aid earthquake emergency response and rescues.  相似文献   

2015年7月3日新疆皮山M_S6.5级地震震害特征分析     

刘军  刘爱文  孙甲宁  宋立军  谭明  常想德 《震灾防御技术》2016,11(3):647-655

2015年7月3日新疆皮山M_S6.5级地震灾区地处塔里木盆地南缘,该地自然条件恶劣,经济极为落后,灾区农村的民房除了抗震安居工程建设的房屋外,还有大量抗震性能较差的民居,在地震中受损严重,经济损失较大。灾区大部分位于山前溢出带,地下水位浅、地基土层软弱等场地条件对地震动有放大作用,震害影响范围较大。灾后重建中应继续加大安居富民工程的经费投入力度。灾区北部人口密集,地基土层软弱,工程地质条件差,建议在今后的安居富民建设中加强地基处理。  相似文献   

基于植被状态指数的云南省农业干旱状况时空分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

吕潇然  尹晓天  宫阿都  王前锋  李静  张慧 《地球信息科学学报》2016,18(12):1634-1644

本文首先计算了云南省2004-2013年农业干旱指数VCI,然后使用Pearson相关系数评价降水与VCI的相关性,基于VCI识别云南省2004-2013年农业干旱事件,最后,与SPEI气象干旱识别结果进行对比分析,在VCI农业干旱识别的基础上,使用干旱频率和干旱面积占比指标分析了云南省2004-2013年农业干旱时空特征。结果表明：降水只是影响VCI指数的关键因素之一;VCI和SPEI指数均能够较好对干旱进行监测并识别典型干旱,但两者的识别结果存在差异;云南省农业干旱频率在春冬两季较高,夏季较低,秋季介于夏季和春冬季之间;春夏冬三季农业干旱频率空间分布较为均匀,秋季农业干旱频率呈南低北高的分布态势,整体上北部干旱频率高于南部;2004-2013年云南省整体干旱面积占比呈现先减小后增加再波动的趋势,春冬两季整体干旱面积占比最高,分别为46.63%和47.18%,呈现下降趋势,夏季整体干旱面积占比最低,为43.81%,呈现上升趋势,秋季整体干旱面积占比介于冬春季和夏季之间,为45.74%,呈现下降趋势。总之,云南省农业干旱春冬易发性最高,影响范围最大,夏季易发性最低,影响范围最小。  相似文献   

黑河中游地区作物用水效率比较及种植结构调整方向研究     

郑璐倩  谈明洪 《地球信息科学学报》2016,18(7):977-986

黑河流域地处西北干旱区,水资源短缺是限制其中游绿洲农业发展、下游生态环境保护的首要原因。该流域的中游绿洲农业用水约占总用水量的80%,因此农业节水对流域发展至关重要。在干旱区绿洲农业节水探索中,众多学者主张通过节水技术来提高用水效率,而关于农业种植结构调整对农业节水影响的定量研究较少。本文采用2012年黑河流域蒸散发数据、土地利用数据、降水数据和农业经济统计数据,定量分析黑河中游主要作物需水特征和用水效率差异,尝试从调整作物种植结构角度为其绿洲农业节水提供依据。结果表明：(1)研究区4种主要作物中,玉米生长期需水量最大,其次为小麦、油菜和大麦;(2)考虑降水补给,发现大麦和油菜生长需水可很大程度上依赖降水,而小麦和玉米则需要灌溉,且玉米灌溉需水量远超小麦;(3)作物用水效率由高到低依次为大麦、油菜、小麦和玉米。从用水效率角度而言,考虑种植区位,在黑河中游适当扩大小麦种植规模更有利于提高中游农业用水效率。  相似文献   

基于孕灾环境的全球台风灾害链分类与区域特征分析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

王然  连芳  余瀚  史培军  王静爱 《地理研究》2016,35(5):836-850

在全球气候变化与经济一体化的背景下,台风引发的次生灾害构成灾害链,加剧人口、经济等多方面的损失。以2000-2010年案例数据为基础,依据台风所经过区域的孕灾环境特性,提出了全球台风灾害链分类体系,并统计得出类型与强度的区域特征：在西北太平洋,主要发生于山地（丘陵）区（占34.4%）,强度为3.1;在南太平洋,主要发生于岛屿区（占59.2%）,强度为2.6~3.0;在北印度洋,主要发生于河口海岸区（占35.8%）,强度为0.7~0.9;在南印度洋,主要发生于平原区（占31%）,强度为2.6;在北大西洋与东北太平洋,主要发生于平原海岸区（分别占24.7%与31.2%）,强度分别为2.0~2.3和2.3。研究结果可为台风灾害链自动识别、动态模拟与预测提供理论基础,用以支持区域防灾减灾建设与应急响应策略制定。  相似文献   

Spatio-temporal changes in agricultural hydrothermal conditions in China from 1951 to 2010   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Yaoping Cui  Xiaoju Ning  Yaochen Qin  Xu Li  Youmin Chen 《地理学报(英文版)》2016,26(6):643-657

Based on the daily observation data of 824 meteorological stations during 1951- 2010 released by the National Meteorological Information Center, this paper evaluated the changes in the heat and moisture conditions of crop growth. An average value of ten years was used to analyze the spatio-temporal variation in the agricultural hydrothermal conditions within a 1 km² grid. Next, the inter-annual changing trend was simulated by regression analysis of the agricultural hydrothermal conditions. The results showed that the contour lines for temperature and accumulated temperatures (the daily mean temperature ≥0°C) increased significantly in most parts of China, and that the temperature contour lines had all moved northwards over the past 60 years. At the same time, the annual precipitation showed a decreasing trend, though more than half of the meteorological stations did not pass the significance test. However, the mean temperatures in the hottest month and the coldest month exhibited a decreasing trend from 1951 to 2010. In addition, the 0°C contour line gradually moved from the Qinling Mountains and Huaihe River Basin to the Yellow River Basin. All these changes would have a significant impact on the distribution of crops and farming systems. Although the mechanisms influencing the interactive temperature and precipitation changes on crops were complex and hard to distinguish, the fact remained that these changes would directly cause corresponding changes in crop characteristics.  相似文献   

Strategic transformation of regionalization for the agricultural comprehensive development: The example of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region in China     

Wenjiao Shi  Yunfeng Hu  Xiaoli Shi  Zong Wang  Huimin Yan  Ziwei Xu  Bo Ren  Wenhui Kuang  Xinliang Xu  Weiming Cheng  Yan Chen  Dongbo Wu 《地理学报(英文版)》2016,26(12):1675-1688

Strategic transformation of regionalization for agricultural comprehensive development (ACD) was presented by the Ministry of Finance of the People’s Republic of China (MOF) in 2014. The regionalization is the premise and basis of the sustainable development and improved competitiveness for agriculture. Based on the environmental resources related to agriculture, such as cropland, climate, water resources, terrain, geomorphology, patterns of the ACD projects, distribution of ecological planning, etc., we devised 13 indices using the geographic comprehensive regionalization method. The indices took into account a combination of dynamic and static, qualitative and quantitative, as well as agricultural and ecological factors. The strategic transformation of regionalization for the ACD in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region of China was performed; seven types were included: prioritized regions, prioritized and restricted regions, protected regions, protected and restricted regions, restricted and prioritized regions, restricted and protected regions, and restricted regions. A further 24 subtypes were used based on locations and ecological zones. The regionalization results showed that prioritized regions were mainly in northern Ningxia, the most suitable area for agriculture. The protected and restricted regions were in central and southern Ningxia. In the central part, drought was the limiting factor for agriculture, and water conservation projects there should be supported. The ecological environment is fragile in southern Ningxia, so there is a need for ecologically sound agriculture to be developed in this region. Such regionalization could achieve two goals, namely agricultural conservation and eco-environmental protection. It was performed following the requirement for scientific regionalization to include three types of regions (prioritized regions, protected regions, and restricted regions), and was applied at the township scale in a provincial or autonomous region for the first time. The results provide both guidance for the strategic transformation of the ACD in Ningxia, and a reference for similar work in other provinces.  相似文献   

贵州区域地质灾害发育程度初探   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

张建江 《贵州地质》2009,26(4):317-320

根据全省完成的县（市）地质灾害调查与区划成果,结合各地行政区面积及山地丘陵比例,采用地质灾害综合发育程度指数法,对9个地区级行政区域进行地质灾害发育程度分析,划分出的地质灾害高、中、低发育区比较符合省情实际,对地方政府的地质灾害防治工作具一定的指导意义。  相似文献