Representing and communicating deep uncertainty in climate-change assessments   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Milind Kandlikar  James Risbey  Suraje Dessai 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2005,337(4):443-455

IPCC reports provide a synthesis of the state of the science in order to inform the international policy process. This task is made difficult by the presence of deep uncertainty in the climate problem that results from long time scales and complexity. This paper focuses on how deep uncertainty can be effectively communicated. We argue that existing schemes do an inadequate job of communicating deep uncertainty and propose a simple approach that distinguishes between various levels of subjective understanding in a systematic manner. We illustrate our approach with two examples. To cite this article: M. Kandlikar et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).  相似文献   

Tropical precipitation anomalies and d‐excess evolution during El Niño 2014‐16          下载免费PDF全文

Ricardo Sánchez‐Murillo  Ana M. Durán‐Quesada  Christian Birkel  Germain Esquivel‐Hernández  Jan Boll 《水文研究》2017,31(4):956-967

The last 2014‐16 El Niño event was among the three strongest episodes on record. El Niño considerably changes annual and seasonal precipitation across the tropics. Here, we present a unique stable isotope data set of daily precipitation collected in Costa Rica prior to, during, and after El Niño 2014‐16, in combination with Lagrangian moisture source and precipitation anomaly diagnostics. δ²H composition ranged from ‐129.4 to +18.1 (‰) while δ¹⁸O ranged from ‐17.3 to +1.0 (‰). No significant difference was observed among δ¹⁸O (P=0.186) and δ²H (P=0.664) mean annual compositions. However, mean annual d‐excess showed a significant decreasing trend (from +13.3 to +8.7 ‰) (P<0.001) with values ranging from +26.6 to ‐13.9 ‰ prior to and during the El Niño evolution. The latter decrease in d‐excess can be partly explained by an enhanced moisture flux convergence across the southeastern Caribbean Sea coupled with moisture transport from northern South America by means of an increased Caribbean Low Level Jet regime. During 2014‐15, precipitation deficit across the Pacific domain averaged 46% resulting in a very severe drought; while a 94% precipitation surplus was observed in the Caribbean domain. Understanding these regional moisture transport mechanisms during a strong El Niño event may contribute to a) better understanding of precipitation anomalies in the tropics and b) re‐evaluate past stable isotope interpretations of ENSO events in paleoclimatic archives within the Central America region.  相似文献   

流速仪信号采集系统设计   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

金福一 《水文》2016,36(1):88-91

介绍了流速仪检定系统的工作原理,分析流速仪信号特点和采集难点,针对流速仪信号受外界干扰信号波形复杂问题,设计信号采集硬件调理电路。针对流速仪信号周期多样性问题,对测频法和测周法进行误差分析和比较,确定在不同速度区间使用不同软件滤波的方法。通过硬件调理电路及软件滤波仿真验证,证明设计的可行性,可有效提高流速仪信号采集的精度,并在单片机平台上完成了硬件设计。  相似文献   

Distribution and relative density of cetaceans in the Hauraki Gulf,New Zealand     

SL Dwyer  DM Clement  MDM Pawley  KA Stockin 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2016,50(3):457-480

Understanding species distributions, and how they change in space and time, is vital when prioritising conservation or management initiatives. We assessed the distribution and density patterns of common dolphins (Delphinus sp.), bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) and Bryde’s whales (Balaenoptera edeni) in the Hauraki Gulf, New Zealand. Dedicated boat-based surveys were conducted in the inner Hauraki Gulf (IHG) and off Great Barrier Island (GBI) during 2010–2012. Generalised linear models were used to investigate temporal changes in relative densities and kernel density estimation was implemented to examine spatial trends. Common dolphins were widely distributed during all seasons, with higher densities observed during winter and spring in the IHG but during autumn off GBI. There was inter-annual variation in Bryde’s whale distribution, with high densities recorded off GBI in 2011. Bottlenose dolphins were infrequently sighted in the IHG but regularly encountered off GBI, with the highest densities during spring and summer.  相似文献   

杨林坳钨矿尾矿资源勘查及综合回收利用工艺浅析     

徐昊 《国土资源导刊(湖南)》2016,(4):68-73

通过对湖南省衡南县川口乡杨林坳钨矿尾矿库尾砂的勘查、试验分析、前期综合利用科研工作情况介绍,分析了今后综合回收尾矿中有价金属、非金属及充分消耗尾砂的工艺思路,以达到充分利用、消耗尾砂,提高循环经济利用率,大大降低尾砂对环境污染和尾矿库存在的隐患。  相似文献   

Middle Jurassic–Early Cretaceous tectonic evolution of the Bayanhushuo area,southern Great Xing’an Range,NE China: constraints from zircon U–Pb geochronological and geochemical data of volcanic and subvolcanic rocks     

Qing-Bin Guan  Bin Wang  Xiong Wang  Xing-An Wang  Qiang Shi 《International Geology Review》2018,60(15):1883-1905

This study presents new zircon U–Pb geochronology, geochemistry, and zircon Hf isotopic data of volcanic and subvolcanic rocks that crop out in the Bayanhushuo area of the southern Great Xing’an Range (GXR) of NE China. These data provide insights into the tectonic evolution of this area during the late Mesozoic and constrain the evolution of the Mongol–Okhotsk Ocean. Combining these new ages with previously published data suggests that the late Mesozoic volcanism occurred in two distinct episodes: Early–Middle Jurassic (176–173 Ma) and Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous (151–138 Ma). The Early–Middle Jurassic dacite porphyry belongs to high-K calc-alkaline series, showing the features of I-type igneous rock. This unit has zircon ε_Hf(t) values from +4.06 to +11.62 that yield two-stage model ages (T_DM2) from 959 to 481 Ma. The geochemistry of the dacite porphyry is indicative of formation in a volcanic arc tectonic setting, and it is derived from a primary magma generated by the partial melting of juvenile mafic crustal material. The Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous volcanic rocks belong to high-K calc-alkaline or shoshonite series and have A₂-type affinities. These volcanics have ε_Hf(t) and T_DM2 values from +5.00 to +8.93 and from 879 to 627 Ma, respectively. The geochemistry of these Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous volcanic rocks is indicative of formation in a post-collisional extensional environment, and they formed from primary magmas generated by the partial melting of juvenile mafic lower crust. The discovery of late Mesozoic volcanic and subvolcanic rocks within the southern GXR indicates that this region was in volcanic arc and extensional tectonic settings during the Early–Middle Jurassic and the Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous, respectively. This indicates that the Mongol–Okhotsk oceanic plate was undergoing subduction during the Early–Middle Jurassic, and this ocean adjacent to the GXR may have closed by the Late Middle Jurassic–Early Late Jurassic.  相似文献   

The terrestrial fauna of the Late Triassic Pant-y-ffynnon Quarry fissures,South Wales,UK and a new species of Clevosaurus (Lepidosauria: Rhynchocephalia)     

Emily Keeble  David I. Whiteside  Michael J. Benton 《Proceedings of the Geologists' Association. Geologists' Association》2018,129(2):99-119

Pant-y-ffynnon Quarry in South Wales yielded a rich cache of fossils in the early 1950s, including articulated specimens of new species (the small sauropodomorph dinosaur Pantydraco caducus and the crocodylomorph Terrestrisuchus gracilis), but no substantial study of the wider fauna of the Pant-y-ffynnon fissure systems has been published. Here, our overview of existing specimens, a few described but mostly undescribed, as well as freshly processed material, provides a comprehensive picture of the Pant-y-ffynnon palaeo-island of the Late Triassic. This was an island with a relatively impoverished fauna dominated by small clevosaurs (rhynchocephalians), including a new species, Clevosaurus cambrica, described here from a partially articulated specimen and isolated bones. The new species has a dental morphology that is intermediate between the Late Triassic Clevosaurus hudsoni, from Cromhall Quarry to the east, and the younger C. convallis from Pant Quarry to the west, suggesting adaptive radiation of clevosaurs in the palaeo-archipelago. The larger reptiles on the palaeo-island do not exceed 1.5?m in length, including a small carnivorous crocodylomorph, Terrestrisuchus, and a possible example of insular dwarfism in the basal dinosaur Pantydraco.  相似文献   

Rb–Sr dating of sulfides and S–Pb isotopic study of the Bayanbaolege Ag polymetallic deposit,Inner Mongolia,NE China     

《Chemie der Erde / Geochemistry》2021,81(1):125724

The large-scale Bayanbaolege Ag polymetallic deposit is situated in the Tuquan–Linxi Fe-Sn-Cu-Pb-Zn-Ag metallogenic sub-belt in eastern slopes of the southern Great Xing’an Range, NE China. The sulfide-quartz vein-type orebodies in the deposit are hosted primarily in the Early Cretaceous granodiorite porphyry and Late Permian strata. Three primary paragenetic stages of veining have been identified: (I) arsenopyrite- pyrite-quartz stage, (II) pyrite-sphalerite-quartz stage, and (III) galena-silver minerals (pyrargyrite, argentite, and pearceite)-calcite stage. The Rb–Sr dating of sulfides yielded an isochron age of 129.9 ± 2.9 Ma (MSWD = 2.1) for the sphalerite, which constrains the mineralization age to the Early Cretaceous. Rb and Sr concentrations in the sulfides ranged from 0.0940 to 1.0294 ppm and 0.0950–3.3818 ppm, respectively. The initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr value of the sphalerite was 0.70852 ± 0.00018, indicating that the mineralized materials were derived from the mixed crust-mantle source area. S isotope analysis showed that the δ³⁴S values of the sulfide samples varied in a narrow range, from −1.5‰ to +1.3‰ (mean −0.65‰), indicating a magmatic S source. Pb isotopic ratios of the sulfides (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 18.306–18.416, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 15.524–15.605, ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 38.095–38.479) and the granodiorite porphyry (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 18.341–18.933, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 15.539–15.600, ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 38.134–38.944) reflect that the ore-forming materials originated from contemporaneous magma with Early Cretaceous granodiorite porphyry. This study of the Bayanbaolege deposit and other hydrothermal deposits in the area provides compelling evidence that the widespread Mesozoic magmatism and mineralization in the southern Great Xing’an Range occurred in an intracontinental extensional tectonic setting, which was associated with the westward subduction of the paleo-Pacific plate.  相似文献   

The Callander (Auchenlaich) moraine: A new site report for the Western Highland Boundary block of the Quaternary of Scotland Geological Conservation Review (GCR)     

John Lowe  Vanessa Brazier 《Proceedings of the Geologists' Association. Geologists' Association》2021,132(1):24-33

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广西隆安都结剖面下石炭统都安组上部鲕粒类型及其地质意义          下载免费PDF全文

巩恩普  杨臻元  黄文韬  关长庆  张永利  苗卓伟  王立芙  李骁  王俊杰 《古地理学报》2021,23(1)

鲕粒是一类特殊的沉积颗粒,为古气候和古海洋环境的重要指示器。为了深入认识此类特殊颗粒的成因机制、形成环境及地质意义,对广西隆安地区都结剖面下石炭统都安组上部含鲕粒地层开展了古生物学、沉积学和岩相学研究。研究区共识别出5种主要的鲕粒类型:放射状纹层鲕粒(O1)、规则同心放射状纹层鲕粒(O2)、不规则同心放射状纹层鲕粒(O3)、泥晶鲕粒(O4-A和O4-B)和复合鲕粒(O5)。各类鲕粒的显微组构和沉积环境指示其具有不同的形成过程,其中水动力条件影响和控制着鲕粒的发育和分布情况。研究区含鲕粒地层形成于维宪期末-谢尔普霍夫期,恰好对应早石炭世晚期冰川作用的开始。受冰川作用影响,全球海平面频繁波动,研究区地处低纬度地区并以浅滩和潮坪沉积环境为主,为鲕粒的形成提供了适宜的水体条件,即温暖、动荡的浅水环境。此外,含鲕粒岩层内广泛发育钙质微生物和微生物席,说明微生物活动在研究区较为常见,可能与鲕粒的形成过程具有一定的关联。  相似文献