Generalized ‘dependencies’ and parameter variance     

Heinrich Eichhorn 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1996,64(3):273-275

The autodependence, (a special case of the — now quite obsolete — dependences, which had been introduced for very specialized astrometric purposes) is proportional to the parameter variance which is the expectation of the variance of the systematic error of a function evaluated with estimated parameters.  相似文献   

地震学定量预报指标的一种提取方法——对比筛选法     

周翠英  蒋海昆  王红卫  姜早峰 《地震》1994,(4)

鉴于目前地震学综合定量预报指标的缺乏和预报工作的急需,尝试使用“对比筛选法(简称CSM方法)”进行地震学定量预报指标的提取试验。较之以往作法的进展在于:1.同时使用“有震”和“无震”两类样本对比筛选;2.对不同地区的地震学参数进行了归一化处理。这样做的显著优点是:1.可以较有效地提取“有震异常”和“正常变化”指标;2.提取的异常和预报指标具有定量化和普适性特点。 试验研究使用大华北地震区资料,研究对象取中强地震。经内符和外推检验,证明该方法提取的异常和预报指标有效性和实用性较高。  相似文献   

Comparison of structural and least-squares lines for estimating geologic relations   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Garnett P. Williams  Brent M. Troutman 《Mathematical Geology》1990,22(8):1027-1049

Two different goals in fitting straight lines to data are to estimate a true linear relation (physical law) and to predict values of the dependent variable with the smallest possible error. Regarding the first goal, a Monte Carlo study indicated that the structural-analysis (SA) method of fitting straight lines to data is superior to the ordinary least-squares (OLS) method for estimating true straight-line relations. Number of data points, slope and intercept of the true relation, and variances of the errors associated with the independent (X) and dependent (Y) variables influence the degree of agreement. For example, differences between the two line-fitting methods decrease as error in X becomes small relative to error in Y. Regarding the second goal—predicting the dependent variable—OLS is better than SA. Again, the difference diminishes as X takes on less error relative to Y. With respect to estimation of slope and intercept and prediction of Y, agreement between Monte Carlo results and large-sample theory was very good for sample sizes of 100, and fair to good for sample sizes of 20. The procedures and error measures are illustrated with two geologic examples.  相似文献   

综合利用地震多参数预测油气藏     

杨丙中  邓俊国 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》1990,(3)

以吉林省境内红星构造带(已发现油田)和杨柳青构造带(未发现油田)为试验区,首先利用地震地层学方法,研究间接参数特征,确定有利相带和有效圈闭,并在有效圈闭上选择了39个2×2cm时窗。在时窗内提取与地震波动力学有关的信息,即频率、振幅、频谱能量等,然后对这种信息进行统计计算,获得振幅方差等九个参数并对其进行综合分析,从已知油气藏出发,对未知圈闭油气状况进行了三级预测,指出了最有利的勘探靶区。  相似文献   

Experimental investigation of the elastic modulus of a fractal system—A model of fractured rocks     

T. L. Chelidze  H. Spetzler  I. C. Getting  Z. A. Avaliani 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1990,134(1):31-43

The elastic properties of a physical model representing a damaged rock matrix were studied using a square lattice deformed under tensile stress. The elastic modulusM of such a system varies in agreement with percolation theory as|x–x _c | ^f , wherex is the damage parameter andx _c the threshold value of the damage parameter,f3.6. Atxx _c the scale dependence ofM can be expressed asML ^–f/v , whereL is the size of the sample andv the correlation exponent in percolation theory.The experimental results are of interest in assessing elastic properties in earthquake focal zones and fault zones in general.  相似文献   

预测陕西关中地区需水量的改进GM(1,1)模型   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

王菊翠  曹明明  仵彦卿 《干旱区地理》2006,29(1):35-41

需水量评价与预测是水资源规划与管理一项重要的研究内容。本文采用定额法计算需水量。通过对陕西关中地区需水量要素组成的分析,认为需水量要素属平稳时间序列,且一阶累加生成数据系列满足指数规律,符合灰色预测条件。为了提高GM(1,1)模型的精度,采用一种改变背景值的新方法,即:中心逼近方法。通过精度检验,中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型平均误差百分比、误差平方和分别比传统的GM(1,1)模型提高了0.147和1.579。用中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型预测需水量各要素近期和中长期值,经检验,其中非农业人口、农业人口、耕地面积、工业总产值预测模型满足一级模型,等级为良好。牲畜头数预测模型为不合格模型,分析其原因,主要是因为时间序列数据不完全符合指数规律。通过定额法计算,预计75%保证率时2005年和2010年关中地区工农业需水量分别占总需水量的92.21%和89.75%,生活需水量分别占7%和9.04%。  相似文献   

库姆塔格沙漠"羽毛状沙丘"形态的示量特征   总被引：10，自引：2，他引：10  

刘虎俊  王继和  廖空太  郑庆中  张锦春  丁峰  唐进年  俄有浩  苏志珠  翟新伟  张国忠 《干旱区地理》2006,29(3):314-320

通过卫星照片判读和实地观测,库姆塔格沙漠的“羽毛状沙丘”由两种风沙地貌构成：东北-西南走向的新月形“沙垄”为“羽轴”；垄间分布的波状微起伏的“大沙波”为“羽枝”,“大沙波”与沙垄的夹角为75°～103°。二者组合成类似“羽毛”的风沙地貌。新月形“沙垄”由单个新月形沙丘的前一沙丘的迎风坡与后一沙丘东翼相连构成“沙垄”。组成“沙垄”的新月形沙丘的两翼平均长37．5m,翼间距30～66m,沙丘高3～19m；在所观测区域内,沙丘沙的分选性由南向北变差。新月形“沙垄”长为3～22km,垄间距为1～3km,其问分布浅色和暗色相间的波状微地貌,暗色部分平均宽24．3m,浅色部分的平均宽11．6m。暗色部分表层沙粒的粒径有60%在1．00～0．25mm之间,以暗色矿物为主,而浅色部分表层沙粒的粒径的90%在1．00～0．25mm之间,分选性相对暗色部分较好,以石英等浅色矿物为主。暗色和浅色微地貌成对出现,相对高差约7cm。这种波状微地貌在库姆塔格沙漠中北部重复出现,类似于风沙地貌分类的沙波,暂称其为“大沙波”。  相似文献   

Seismic lamination and anisotropy of the Lower Continental Crust   总被引：2，自引：3，他引：2  

Rolf Meissner  Wolfgang Rabbel  Hartmut Kern 《Tectonophysics》2006,416(1-4):81

Seismic lamination in the lower crust associated with marked anisotropy has been observed at various locations. Three of these locations were investigated by specially designed experiments in the near vertical and in the wide-angle range, that is the Urach and the Black Forrest area, both belonging to the Moldanubian, a collapsed Variscan terrane in southern Germany, and in the Donbas Basin, a rift inside the East European (Ukrainian) craton. In these three cases, a firm relationship between lower crust seismic lamination and anisotropy is found. There are more cases of lower-crustal lamination and anisotropy, e.g. from the Basin and Range province (western US) and from central Tibet, not revealed by seismic wide-angle measurements, but by teleseismic receiver function studies with a P–S conversion at the Moho. Other cases of lamination and anisotropy are from exhumed lower crustal rocks in Calabria (southern Italy), and Val Sesia and Val Strona (Ivrea area, Northern Italy). We demonstrate that rocks in the lower continental crust, apart from differing in composition, differ from the upper mantle both in terms of seismic lamination (observed in the near-vertical range) and in the type of anisotropy. Compared to upper mantle rocks exhibiting mainly orthorhombic symmetry, the symmetry of the rocks constituting the lower crust is either axial or orthorhombic and basically a result of preferred crystallographic orientation of major minerals (biotite, muscovite, hornblende). We argue that the generation of seismic lamination and anisotropy in the lower crust is a consequence of the same tectonic process, that is, ductile deformation in a warm and low-viscosity lower crust. This process takes place preferably in areas of extension. Heterogeneous rock units are formed that are generally felsic in composition, but that contain intercalations of mafic intrusions. The latter have acted as heat sources and provide the necessary seismic impedance contrasts. The observed seismic anisotropy is attributed to lattice preferred orientation (LPO) of major minerals, in particular of mica and hornblende, but also of olivine. A transversely isotropic symmetry system, such as expected for sub-horizontal layering, is found in only half of the field studies. Azimuthal anisotropy is encountered in the rest of the cases. This indicates differences in the horizontal components of tectonic strain, which finally give rise to differences in the evolution of the rock fabric.  相似文献   

Mais comment s'écoule donc un glacier ? Aperçu historique     

Frédérique Rémy  Laurent Testut 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2006,338(5):368-385

Ice and snow have often helped physicists understand the world. On the contrary it has taken them a very long time to understand the flow of the glaciers. Naturalists only began to take an interest in glaciers at the beginning of the 19th century during the last phase of glacier advances. When the glacier flow from the upslope direction became obvious, it was then necessary to understand how it flowed. It was only in 1840, the year of the Antarctica ice sheet discovery by Dumont d'Urville, that two books laid the basis for the future field of glaciology: one by Agassiz on the ice age and glaciers, the other one by canon Rendu on glacier theory. During the 19th century, ice flow theories, adopted by most of the leading scientists, were based on melting/refreezing processes. Even though the word ‘fluid’ was first used in 1773 to describe ice, more the 130 years would have to go by before the laws of fluid mechanics were applied to ice. Even now, the parameter of Glen's law, which is used by glaciologists to model ice deformation, can take a very wide range of values, so that no unique ice flow law has yet been defined. To cite this article: F. Rémy, L. Testut, C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).  相似文献   

爆破夯实技术在水下地基处理中的应用          下载免费PDF全文

张维正 《探矿工程》2006,33(10):60-62

以某杂货码头和集装箱重力式码头水下地基处理工程为例，介绍了其地基处理的爆夯试验过程，得出了一次性爆破夯实厚层块石抛石基床的爆夯参数，并对其施工过程进行了监测。总结了类似工程施工的经验与教训。  相似文献